Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

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Where will the number of Covid-19 postive cases in India peak?

200,000
0
No votes
300,000
0
No votes
400,000
2
13%
500,000
0
No votes
600,000
0
No votes
700,000
0
No votes
800,000
2
13%
900,000
0
No votes
1 million
0
No votes
> 1 million
11
73%
 
Total votes: 15

sameerph
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by sameerph »

This seems to be one -

IS Chahal twitter

But he has not tweeted anything since November 2019.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

Let us assume that the doubling rate is 12 days (Jay's recent estimate was 13-14 days). So we should reach 200K by May 31 and 400K by June 12. Let us hope that Jay's prediction (the most optimistic one here) will be reached by June 12-15.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by jayakris »

suresh wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 11:54 am Let us assume that the doubling rate is 12 days (Jay's recent estimate was 13-14 days). So we should reach 200K by May 31 and 400K by June 12. Let us hope that Jay's prediction (the most optimistic one here) will be reached by June 12-15.
I think my numbers prediction from Apr 30th or May7th was 135-140K by May 24th and 190K or so for May 31st, iirc. I need to go back and find the post...
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Sin Hombre »

jayakris wrote: Tue May 19, 2020 10:43 pm So you believe there will be a peak sometime at a figure more (or much more) than 5K, before we drop to it, right? We will be up around at least 7 or 8K per day fairly soon.

I also think this will happen. I don't know if it will be 5K/par day or 10K/day in that stable state... It could be 1000 per day too. But long before that we will stop talking about Covid-19, and people will be on their own to go to hospitals and get tested and all that. It will be another flu, but a nasty kind that one needs to be careful about. A lot of careless people (and some unfortunate people) could die too.

If, after things stabilize, if Korea is getting 100 cases a day during 2021, then India, at that kind of a stable state will have 27 times that on just on population alone, which is 2700. Probably higher at 5K because people are not as disciplined and educated as Koreans. US may have 600 a day.

But what is the peak problems we will have, before reaching that equilibrium? Just can't say.
I expect us to get a peak of closer to 10k before we find that steady state.

It is certainly quite a bit worse than flu. As we get more data from Western countries, the real CFR is starting to converge between 0.5 and 0.9%.

The question is once a country hits its steady state, how long can you continue the lockdown?

GDP/job losses will at some point cause a larger loss.

We need to get a point where we can open up construction and other jobs where people are not clustered in a tight space.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

jayakris wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 2:19 am
suresh wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 11:54 am Let us assume that the doubling rate is 12 days (Jay's recent estimate was 13-14 days). So we should reach 200K by May 31 and 400K by June 12. Let us hope that Jay's prediction (the most optimistic one here) will be reached by June 12-15.
I think my numbers prediction from Apr 30th or May7th was 135-140K by May 24th and 190K or so for May 31st, iirc. I need to go back and find the post...
So we reached 190K on May 31 and our daily numbers are around 8000/day. Assuming a doubling rate of 13/day we should reach 380K by June 13 and 400K by June 15.

@sin hombre has predicted that flattening should begin when we touch 10K cases/day.

@Jay Can you look up your future predictions and put in this thread.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by jayakris »

^^ You are probably assuming too short a doubling period. There is a natural drop of the rate that is happening because the daily additions show no more than a linear increase.

My current predictions are a bit lower than yours. 255K-265K for June 7th and 335K-355K for June 14th .... But if we are to see a peak (in daily additions) by 400K, then it would be happening much later. If we get a peak at 300K, then it will probably be in the next 10-12 days or so. If Delhi and TN starts showing any positive signs of a slow-down, I can predict better. I have a sneaky feeling that it might happen in the next week or so but I just don't know. It is a robust growth, though no explosion or anything, in both cities.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

Yes, I am deliberately assuming a shorter doubling period -- just being conservative.

I think that the first slowdown that we will see will come from states 5-10 in the covid19india.org list where numbers have gone up largely due to returning migrants. It might take longer for the top 3 Mah/TN/Del to slow down.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Atithee »

USA topped 2 million cases just now. Any question that India will not blow past this number given the 4x population, generally less favorable conditions to follow required measures even if well meant, poorer infrastructure, etc.? I can’t find any logical reason. Can anyone else? Folks who were/still are predicting lower numbers?

By the way, I like the simplicity of graphics at this site:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/coronavi ... t-updates/

The curve does seem to be flattening. However, I still don’t believe we will end up less than a million when all’s said and done.

My hope was in the hot temp theory and the fortuitous immunity due to vaccines, exposure to germs etc., but, sadly, the hot weather hasn’t helped. I was really hoping it would.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by jayakris »

Atithee wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:14 pm By the way, I like the simplicity of graphics at this site:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/coronavi ... t-updates/

The curve does seem to be flattening. However, I still don’t believe we will end up less than a million when all’s said and done.
Their numbers are wrong. What are they showing as daily cases? No, we have not gone flat for 7 days like they are showing. Still growing in daily cases by a robust rate of 200 to 400 per day... or did I miss something about what they are saying at HT?
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Sin Hombre »

The US has flatlined at around 20k new cases daily.

For India to blow past that number, we would be averaging 40k+ new cases daily. No evidence that will happen.

I think the overall prediction is still (as it has been for months) that we will have the second most official cases in the world.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by Atithee »

Anyone wants to revise their number?
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by suresh »

Atithee wrote: Sat Jun 20, 2020 5:40 pm Anyone wants to revise their number?
Yes, we have crossed 400K and no sign of flattening in the daily rate. I am still optimistic about my choice of 800K. That will be reached in a few weeks.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by arjun2761 »

Yes, out tested number is going up as our testing is increasing.

My sense is that we are over 1MM cases already. India's testing rate is around 5-10% of the developed countries (in terms of tests per million of population), so I'm pretty sure that our numbers would be much higher if we tested more. Not sure that it would be 10X as large parts of India are still more disconnected from the world, but the recent movement back and forth of migrants from the Indian hotspots means that the number is at least a few time more than our tested number.

BTW, I think this is true for most of the less developed countries and many of the developed countries (and autocrats) who suppressed testing to reduce their figures. In the US, that is also what Trump wanted to do but a lot of local health isn't under federal control, so he wasn't able to do what he wanted to do.
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by jayakris »

Arjun, it looks like you missed all the discussion on the testing matter in 180+ pages of our Covid19 thread. I don't blame you :) ... Your impression on testing, is really not correct on India though. Our testing rate is still among the upper quartile of countries in the world, and tests per million is the most pointless stat when a pandemic is in the spreading phase. It may be shocking, but I bet that 75 percent of Indian population still may not have a single person with infection within a 5 km radius of them. So the testing per million means nothing for India, though it means something for smaller countries, where it has spread everywhere.

How many are you testing per positives you get, is the stat to use (or its inverse, positivity ratio per test). That shows how much you are tracing, also. India is still among the upper one third of countries - In fact at #9 out of the 27 countries with over 50K cases. We test something like 15 others for every positive. We were actually higher, in the upper-5, among those countries till recently -- though Mumbai and Delhi with high positivity have pushed us down to #9 now.

We still have a very good idea where the infection is going because outside of Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Chennai, we are testing at around 3% positivity (something like 30 contacts found per positive tests, that is). The state Governments of most states are correct in what they say that they can trace most of the cases' source and it is not really in community transmission stage.

The work that places like Assam are doing is phenomenal. Assam did 43K tests in the last 3 days to find just 850 cases. 2 percent positivity from 43K tests. That is 50 tests for 1 positive (which also means that a lot of tracing happened for every positive too, otherwise you cannot generate that many samples). There are very few places in the world where that kind of testing is happening right now.

India does not have 100s of thousands of cases floating around or anything. There are all kinds of data that has come out that indicate this, including from the sero-survey that ICMR did. We got zeros in so many districts. Nothing at all from many many districts where 200-300 people samples were taken. Most importantly, the rate of migrant infections found from trains that carried millions across the countries who were ALL screened on exit. We were finding 1 and 2 people out of 1200 in a train who had Covid. Similar numbers on inter-state travelers by cars and buses who are screened at the border in almost all states, except Telangana.

But, as is normal with this virus everywhere in the world, even with the best testing and tracing activities, there are always about as many cases out there (maybe even 2 times as many) as there are active detected cases, because a lot of people are asymptomatic and there is a pretty long incubation period with this virus too. We have 180K detected active cases now, so I estimate that about say 250-300K cases are out there undetected. So may be 600-700K cases in India now. The same calculation applies to every country.

But there is another angle to look at. If we do antibody tests, you will find a lot more Indians who may have the virus in them but the body is fighting it, without any of them ever knowing it, nor feeling any symptoms. It does appear that the Indian immunity is a little better at fighting it off. Then we end up with the question of what "true infection" is. In fact, among the 410K cases we have so far, at least 20-30% have never shown any symptoms (probably 50% of the migrants) at all and were automatically considered recovered after a 2 weeks period. I'm not even sure if they should have been counted. In TN, I believe it may be some 40% who have never shown symptoms and were considered recovered. Only 10 or 12 percent even try to go to the hospital. Maybe we shouldn't even have tested so many of them and found that the virus was in them. If it didn't anything to them, what is the point - other than to trace more contacts through them and test?
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Re: Where do you think the number of India Covid-19 positive peak?

Post by arjun2761 »

Jay - lot of what you write does seem plausible. And yes, I mostly skipped the daily discussion of numbers.

Most investment newsletters consider Indian data to be highly unreliable largely because the Indian health infrastructure is considered undeveloped. That is, there isn't much faith on both (1) whether all the infection pockets are being covered, and (2) Even if covered whether the data being reported is reliable.

Do agree that Indian's do have some differences compared to developed populations on how they may be getting infected as well as whether they are better able to avoid adverse results if infected. Indians are normally exposed to more germs of various kinds compared to the more sterile developed countries, so it's possible their immunity may be better to other germs (such as this virus). Also, in some of the developed countries, obesity based comorbidities (heart disease, visceral fat, hypertension, diabetes) are much higher than in India which has a much lower age demographic and this may account for the lower adverse effects from contracting the virus in India.

Also, agree that a significant part of India isn't exposed as you state. But even if 75% of India isn't exposed, the Indian tests per million of around 5000 is far below the 80000-100,000+ of the developed nations. That is, even if we consider our exposed population base to be 25%, our tests per million for the exposed population would be around 20000 which is a factor of 4 less than the developed countries.
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