Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

rajitghosh wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:59 amOne thing is certain. The virus has lost its malignancy as in the cases are not that dangerous. Alternatively it may be true that doctors have found out what medicines work.
The last thing you said is true, but it is also a disappointing thing. The docs have become good, and that has dropped the case fatality rate from 3 to 5% down to 1 to 2 percent around the world. Treatment to avoid after-effects also seem to have become a little better. India is now operating at around 1 percent CFR. The disappointing thing is that it is all based on existing medicines. There is really no report of a wonder drug to have been found (except the super-ultra-expensive Regeneron treatment that Donald Trump was given). If there were some new drugs that could reduce the 5-day attack to a 1 or 2 days thing and prevent the lingering after-effects, then we can start looking at this like "just any flu" and won't have to worry so much.

Though the virus has lost a bit of its reputation for malignancy, like you say, it is still not as simple as a flu, and it still kills at a much higher rate than seasonal flu and cold. I am still hoping for some drugs to be available soon. Some are under trials, apparently, but nothing being touted much yet, unlike the vaccines.

Meanwhile, +12.9K cases today; again a slight increase. Only in Maharashtra. Kerala dropped a bit more. The 7-day average is up a small bit once again. The national positivity keeps going up, as states like Bihar that helped our average positivity with extremely high test totals at positivities like at 0.2% have now reduced testing. It was 736K tests at 1.75% today (outside of MAH and KER, it is still 0.52% positivity)

Vaccination totals were okay today at 422K but only 330 was new people (first doses). The S/M/T/W four-day totals for the last 4 weeks have been 599K, 773K, 705K, and 1242K ... This week isn't great at 812K, so far, but at least it isn't worse than the first three weeks. But none of this is enough in any way. Easily some 5 to 10 times as many people need to get vaccinated for this thing to make any difference even in 5 months time. As of now, it may make a difference in about 3-4 years time :)

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ICMR Update: 208,703,791 total tests... Wednesday tests: 726,562 (better than the last few days)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

I was given a special medicine. Whether it worked or I got cured on my own, can't say. A medicine called Ivermectin


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

In Chennai, the city is still conducting fever camps to identify symptomatic people. A guy from the corporation comes every once in a while to check if anyone has fever in our home (in fact, he came today). The number of tests in TN remain > 50K/day. So the system is not acting like the pandemic is over. However, people are acting like it is over. Just 1/3 typically wear masks. I went to a department store to buy something and none of the employees were wearing masks. I agree with Rajit that doctors have come up with a decent set of protocols to treat those with the virus,


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

I got to know one more thing. Covid positives come with an intensity score. Doctors have figured out what to do at different scores.

Less than 15: Hospitalization + Oxygen
15-20: Hospitalization + Medication
21-30: Home isolation + Medication
30-35: Mostly asymptomatic and they can't infect others

So even doctors are not bothering too much about cases with score above 20. Less than 20 scores would be few in India.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

These must be Cycle Threshold (Ct) rates for RTPCR. When my wife and son tested positive, Ct rates were not reported in their results. I guess they are doing that now. @rajitghosh, can you take a look at your Covid positive report and see if the Ct rate is given?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Rajit, it is good to hear of Maharashtra officials doing the follow-up. They still need to make more tests easily accessible (antigens are fine if that is easier) and let people take the tests on suspicions also, before they all get infected within families. This was the mistake Kerala was making for 6 months. Just 2 weeks ago they increased the testing by about 30% and the case average has come down from 5600 to 4600 now. There are so many instances where we saw this in India and the officials still don't get the concept, in a few places in India.

By the way, it is not just the small growth in Mumbai/Pune, that is adding numbers in Maharashtra. It is Amravati in Eastern Maharashtra, of all places, that has caught fire. It has gone up to 700+ cases today there. In friggin Amravati!! After a couple of months when some 8 towns in Kerala were leading the counts in India with 600+ cases each in any 4 or 5 of them on any day, all Kerala counts are below 600 today, and the high city counts in India are at Pune(831), Mumbai(736), Amravati(733) and Nagpur(698).

After skipping it for a month or so, as Kerala was the only bad area every day, I have restarted and added a bad area analysis again for yesterday, in the numbers-summary thread. Not sure if any of you look at that thread, but I have been religiously keeping numbers there for posterity's sake, as this forum now has one of the longest running historical records of everything important happening in India, not just sports!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

Some action in Maharashtra. The new growth has at least been noticed by officials.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/sur ... 03119.html


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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suresh wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:47 am These must be Cycle Threshold (Ct) rates for RTPCR. When my wife and son tested positive, Ct rates were not reported in their results. I guess they are doing that now. @rajitghosh, can you take a look at your Covid positive report and see if the Ct rate is given?
Yes mine was 27.97


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Atithee wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:14 pmSome action in Maharashtra. The new growth has at least been noticed by officials.
Yes, though it has only been about a week of clear indication of a second week, Shiv sena had already mentioned it yesterday in their editorial - Lockdown in Mumbai Again? Shiv Sena Warns Of Fresh Restrictions Amid Second Wave of COVID-19 in Maharashtra

But it is once again the "go after the people" idea. Can everybody stop blaming people, and do their jobs? People are people, and they need to live a life. It is the government's job to make testing and treatment available when people want it, and to inform people about it, even force-feeding them info if that is needed. We are way past the time of doing lockdowns and asking people to do social distancing and all that crap, which hardly helped a whole heck of a lot anyway. Be strict on masks (the only thing that really works), of course!... Beyond that, let people live their lives.

It annoys me to no end when everybody blames "undisciplined people". People just get it, and it is often not out of lack of discipline. Heck, Kerala people were quite disciplined and that place ended up with the highest per population case load in India. Are people the reason? No. Stubborn (if not stupid) state governments are!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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It was +13.2K today, and our 7-day average is creeping up... and is 11.8K now... About 752K tests at 1.75%... It was 5.4K in MAH, 4.6K in KER, and 3.2K elsewhere. The death totals have stopped dropping too... It was 100 deaths yesterday and 98 today.

Slight suspicion if UP has started a growth [EDIT: Okay, it was only 80 in UP; the state released a late evening number which actually will go to tomorrow's total - so no jump to twice as many cases like I thought]. The death numbers in Punjab (10 each the last two days) is giving me some worries too.

I guess I am too much on edge these days. An uncomfortable feeling that things are about to get really bad again.

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ICMR Update: 209,474,862 total tests... Thursday tests: 771,071 (That is a good number today)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

An update on the state rankings on vaccinations, as of the end of Wednesday... Quite a bit of movement at the top. J&K has come out of nowhere to the top spot. So has Delhi and HP who have gone berserk lately on vaccinations, but Kerala stayed stagnant and has fallen a bit. In terms of total people vaccinated (ie, at least first dose), among the most populous 22 states, we have 1. J&K (12.101), HP (11.986), DEL (11.553), UK (11.099), KER (10.791), CHG (10.742), GUJ (10.296) at the top now, as the only states who have done more than 1 percent of the population. The middle group is ODI (9.644), RAJ (9.639), KAR (7.762), TEL (7.510), MP (7.266), AP (7.206), HAR (7.034), MAH (6.262), JH (6.221), WB (5.757). Then we have the the bottom five, as the only ones to have done less than 0.5% of the population - BIH (4.208), UP (4.074), TN (3.902), ASM (3.839), PUN (3.759)... TN has raised the numbers a little bit this week, by the way.

Among all states/territories, Lakshadweep (25.843), Tripura (18.929), Sikkim (14.321) and Ladakh (13.160) lead, just ahead of J&K. Generally the small states are doing fine, except for Daman&Diu (5.804) and Puducherry (4.627) who are just ahead of the bottom 5 big states.

Maybe because they got their first virus case only a month ago, Lakshadweep islands have handled things very well. They have tested at a 1.3% positivity, and are yet to have a death, after 263 cases (164 recovered). Hope their CFR of 0.0 will stay intact.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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No doubt now, that India has a second wave going. Punjab is also rising, and my hunch is that MP is about to rise... Maybe Tamil Nadu too... Not sure if the mess in the Bengaluru clusters last week is going to start something off there either. MAH is in full swing, already up to 6.1K... Small clusters forming here and there, and any of the other states could catch fire any day! .... HERE... WE... GO! :(

We had +13.9K today, from about 784K tests at 1.78% positivity... 6.1K in MAH, 4.5K in KER, and 3.3K in the rest of the country. That last item was down to 2.8K earlier, but Punjab, MP etc are not looking good now. 100 deaths for the third day in a row. Expecting 120 per day next week, and at least 8K in Maharashtra (or my earlier prediction of a 10K next week in MAH)

The good days are over. And we are laying massive eggs on vaccination too. Only 116K first doses till 6 pm today. 10 million took more than a month. On a great pace to complete half the population in a 600-months five-year plan. Crap. Crap, crap. :damn:

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ICMR Update: 210,261,480 total tests... Friday tests: 786,618... Lab count: 2393


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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+14.3K today, from about 771K tests at 1.85% positivity. 6.3K in Maharashtra, 4.7K in Kerala and 3.3K elsewhere. The "elsewhere" total is up only a slight but and that is mostly 200 extra cases in Punjab and 130 cases in Indore (MP). So our second wave is still only Maharashtra. I remain nervous, but I'm not noticing trouble elsewhere as of now.

The crazy story is the Amravati district right now. They had +1055 cases today!! Wow. But with 650K population in the city and 3 million in the district, Amaravati is not a small place. They never really had a big first wave (only 30K cases so far), so this is actually a first wave in a relatively less infected district, that becomes part of a second wave for the state. Same is true of neighboring Akola which also never had a huge first wave. They had 350 cases today too. But Mumbai/Pune/Thane are rising at a somewhat slow pace (see the bad area analysis today for growth rates), and that is indeed a second wave. If eastern Maharashtra (Amravati, Akola, Yavatmal, Nagpur, Wardha) calms down, this second wave may not become too severe in Maharashtra. I am pretty sure that Nagpur is about to die down. Need to wait and watch though, because Auarangabad, Thane, Dhule etc are all rising. Southern Maharashtra areas (Satara/Solapur/Sangli/Kolhapur etc) were the last to have the first wave, and their second waves may be delayed a bit more.

But, basically it is clear that these second waves are simply a matter of time! That was clear in evidence from around the world too. Many in India, including experts, seemed to just discount it and act like we were done with Covid - like India is some sort of special case that would buck the world trend... In a way it is good that MAH is leading the way in scaring people everywhere that second waves WILL come.

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ICMR Update: 210,931,530 total tests... Saturday tests: 670,050


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

Maharashtra had 6k cases yesterday and vaccinated only 36k yesterday. Today 7k cases.... Shouldn't we be vaccinating a million people per day in Maharashtra only


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Omkara wrote: Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:01 pmMaharashtra had 6k cases yesterday and vaccinated only 36k yesterday. Today 7k cases.... Shouldn't we be vaccinating a million people per day in Maharashtra only
Vaccinations will not help the current wave. Testing is all that works. The stupid state never learned it, so we wait for the wave to go up to more than +10K next week, and go on and on for a while. The Maharashtra and Kerala governments are an embarrassment.