Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Atithee
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

Read the farmers protest thread. I just posted a gem there too.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ Yep, saw that. Haven't read it. Saw the scribe's name and decided it was not worth it :)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

We shouldn't give SL any vaccines though except to their cricket team. Their government continues to behave as small timers.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Meanwhile, we had +12.1K cases on Friday... From 837K tests at 1.45%... The 7-day average is at 11.4K, and has been stagnant with slight up or down movements for a week. Today it was 5.4K cases in Kerala, 3.7K in Maharashtra and 3K in the rest of India... Kerala is dropping a small bit every day, but worryingly, Maharashtra has been on a slight rise to counter it during the last week or so. Maharashtra had gone down close to 2.5K per day and around 4.9% or so in positivity, but they are back up to 3.5K and around 6+ % positivity lately... What's up Uddhav sir? Another wave in Maharashtra? I hope not.

A couple of days of so-so vaccinations after a great start to the week in the first 4 days. It was 463K by end of day on Friday, for a cumulative total of 7.97 million.

With 2.19M so far in 6 days, this week's vaccinations are already more than in any of the previous 3 weeks (the 2.16M two weeks ago, and 2.03M last week). Will probably have 2.5M this week but I was hoping for at least 3 to 4M per week by now. The rate needs to go up 3 or 4 times and close to 10M per week (or 1.5M a day) pretty soon, if we are hoping to get anywhere. Even that will take us only to about 270M in 6 months, and that is just 20% of our population. We are right now on a 5 year plan to vaccinate everybody :) ...

Not close to even 1% of the population after almost a month. What the hell is India doing? Drop this bullshit about healthcare workers, frontline workers, older people and all that, and just start vaccinating people, will you? I don't even think vaccinating older population is necessarily what we need to do. Vaccinating targeted super-spreader populations could very well be more important. Especially so, when we have hardly any cases in india and preventing another wave is more important for the next 2-3 months... If the disease isn't spreading much, it won't get to older people, no? They are not the ones typically spreading it. School children, school teachers, shop salesmen, liquor salesmen, restaurant workers, chaiwallahs, vegetable sellers, and so on. As far as I can see, we are wasting time right now, with pointless vaccinations. I don't have data/evidence to make the case properly though. What do you all think?

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ICMR Update: 205,533,398... Friday tests: 743,614


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

An absolutely pathetic 84,807 vaccinations were done by 6 pm today. Unbelievable. (We had done 358K last Saturday, but might not have hit even 150K today)

What the hell is India trying to do? One month into it, we seem to be clueless on how to go about doing this. I knew that all that talk earlier by all the "experts" that India was well-set to do vaccinations was just talk. Looks like it is was talk. Otherwise, we better get off our asses and start doing what we brag "we are capable of" - rather than waste time on healthcare workers and policemen, who are not the ones who will spread the disease anyway.

I am seriously concerned of a second wave starting. We still have plenty of non-immune people in the country. In fact., we must expect 200K cases a day by June. Our first wave was slow and took time. Now when every country is done with their second and third waves, our second wave will start and we will be dead in water by June/July.

Better vaccinate super-spreaders soon, or we will pay for it. The bullshit we are doing now, needs to stop, and we need to vaccinate 2 or 3 million people a day for 100 days (with "active people" and super-spreaders as a priority; not those who sit at home in places where there is no virus within miles anyway right now). That is the only way to stay out of trouble.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

Agree 100% with Jay.

India is enjoying the lull and thinking Covid is over. It is not and the second wave will be brutal unless we can get a lot of vaccinations done before monsoon hits.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

I think Maharashtra is already on a second wave. Looking like trouble brewing, to me. In fact, many other places, where I am suspecting that small spreads are starting. I may need to restart my "bad area analysis" in the update thread again sometime soon. Hopefully I am being over-sensitive. But Maharashtra could be again running into trouble, as of now.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:32 pmAn absolutely pathetic 84,807 vaccinations were done by 6 pm today. Unbelievable. (We had done 358K last Saturday, but might not have hit even 150K today)
Ok, it wasn't as terrible as I feared, by the end of the day. 296,211 jabs on Saturday... 8,263,858 total. 2.48M done this week. better than last week but clearly less than 1/5th (or at least 1/3rd) of what we need to be doing.

We had +12.2K cases today, as we remain as flat as a pancake these days. From 839K tests at 1.47%... 5.5K in KER, 3.6K in MAH and 3.1K elsewhere... Slight drop continues in Kerala, a somewhat noticeable rise continues in Maharashtra, and the rest of India is totally flat.

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ICMR Update: 206,230,512 total tests... Saturday tests: 697,114


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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I’m not as concerned about another wave. I think it’s highly unlikely. If the farmers’ protest didn’t do anything, I don’t think anything else will. If anything, it may have helped the herd immunity develop more. If Maharashtra sees a spike, it’ll be an isolated case.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Atithee wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:36 amI’m not as concerned about another wave. I think it’s highly unlikely. If the farmers’ protest didn’t do anything, I don’t think anything else will.
This is what people thought in Germany, Korea, Pakistan and all those places where the cases dropped to almost nothing and no events seemed to cause a spread anymore. And it stayed that way for months. Then something happens and it starts off, like it did in all those places. may not be terrible in the second go around (or worse like in UK and US)... But once it somehow starts off, it spreads again very fast too. India just came down to our bottom flat numbers. Maybe it will stay that way for a 2 or 3 months but it may just take off again. maybe it's the monsoons that start it off again. It could be the opened schools. Or theaters. Or the railways stations. No idea where it would start. I would guess/hope that it would be more localized than last time, and could be controlled better, but even that I don't know.

We shouldn't take a chance on being the ONLY country that never had a second wave. There is just no reason to think that we will remain as the only country like that. Every country that had serious cases have had second waves. Why wouldn't we? It will be great if it is true, but I won't take the chance.

Vaccinate all super-spreader people as soon as we can. Shop salesmen, drivers, priests, school teachers, bank workers... so on. Anybody who has a chance to be near others and talking to one or more person for more than 10 minutes at a stretch as part of his/her job every day, should get vaccinated in the next 3 months. Just make a long list of occupations/activities like that, and get going with vaccination of people involved in those jobs/activities. I would vaccinate them all on a war footing; and not old people and retired people sitting at home, who have no chance to get it in the next 2-3 months with the case numbers being so ridiculously low now. Let us try to keep it low first!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

If people don’t want to get vaccinated, you can’t force them. Or can you? There’s a lot of vaccine hesitancy in India at the moment.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Atithee wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:05 am If people don’t want to get vaccinated, you can’t force them. Or can you? There’s a lot of vaccine hesitancy in India at the moment.
Right now vaccinations are being limited to very specific groups. Expect numbers to rise once they add new sets of people to the list. Expect people over 60 to come into the list soon. Then, we should see increases in numbers of people getting vaccinated. It will be April/May before someone like me will be able to take the first dose.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by sameerph »

I was also thinking no chance of a second waive. It has been 5 months ( September) since our first wave started going down. And in Mumbai in last couple of months I saw buses packed to the brim, restuarants with full capacity, even people going to pubs and all without masks and I thought if this did not bring the second wave it may never happen. But, in last 3-4 days there has been some uptick in numbers. Not yet so much to call it a wave but some trouble. Already local newspaper saying that it is happening because they started the suburban trains for all 1 week ago. Lets wait and watch if it is indeed a second waive or just a temporary increase.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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sameerph wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:09 am I was also thinking no chance of a second waive.
Maybe, it’s indeed been “waived.” That’ll be good news.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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sameerph wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:09 amBut, in last 3-4 days there has been some uptick in numbers. Not yet so much to call it a wave but some trouble. Already local newspaper saying that it is happening because they started the suburban trains for all 1 week ago. Lets wait and watch if it is indeed a second waive or just a temporary increase.
I think it could very well be a second wave. It only needs a trigger somewhere, and then 1 case becomes two, then 4, then 8, and hits a super-spreader person who makes 32, which hits another 2 more super-spreaders... In 2 weeks, the local spread could 150 people...

Just like the first wave, but without a lockdown in place as a slow-down mechanism and people being much less careful. The trigger in our case could be public transit, though Mumbai doesn't have much AC public transit, I think (which is where trouble is; open window public transit is totally safe). Hope I am wrong though.