Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

After 8 months of not having a single case, Lakshadweep suddenly got their first 14 cases yesterday. One person went there on January 4th from Kochi, who has now given it to 13 others. 31 contacts were traced and 13 had it. Man, this virus!

For good news, the serious rain in Kerala that broke some January rainfall records, has just ended this week. Hopefully the case numbers will now go down. In retrospect, it is basically the rainy season that caused serious trouble in India. Kerala basically had only a brief break between the two monsoons, and it seems to have kept the numbers going and going... Poor testing added to it too.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Only +13.8 on Tuesday, from about 878K tests at 1.57%... That is about 2100 less than on last Tuesday... The 7-day average dipped by 302 to 14.4K now... It was 6.2K in Kerala... Actually, only 5.3K came from outside of Kerala and Maharashtra!... 161 deaths.

----
ICMR Update: 188,566,947 total tests... Tuesday tests: 764,120


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Vaccination Update. We have reached near 800K now. The 6 pm update is 786,842... Looks like it's only under 150K today in the end (112K by 6 pm)... But today is a low count day, as only 10 states are scheduled to do vaccination on Wednesdays.

The official final numbers for the first 4 days:
16th SAT - 207,229
17th SUN - 25,810
18th MON - 221,010
19th TUE - 220,786
20th WED - 112,007 by 6 pm [EDIT: 131,649 was the late night total... Cumulative: 806,484]


Hoping to see 300K per day soon. Will do a state rank update on Sundays, as daily updates don't make sense because different states do it on different week days. Telengana has come way up to the top suddenly though. Telangana, Odisha, AP, Karnataka, Haryana and Kerala are at the top, among the bigger states.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

+15.3K today from 904K tests at 1.69% today (152 deaths). The 7-day average is down another 250 to 14.1K now...

But Kerala is still going up. 6.8K today is from KER. Kerala's seven-day average has gone up from 5K to 5.5K in the past week. Outside of KER and MAH, there were only 5.4K cases today... If Kerala starts dropping, we could well go down to even 7K to 10K pretty soon. The question is - when will Kerala cases drop? Really weird.

Meanwhile, India was only 10th in new cases in the world on Wednesday and 18th in deaths. Whoa. How things have changed!

-----------
ICMR Update: 189,347,782 total tests... Wednesday tests: 780,835... Lab count: 2345


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

So after 1 week we may be just above 1million vaccinations. No where near enough. Our goal is 300million in the next 5-6 months. Even if take the current percent of 60% we may need to do 180million vaccinations(though I think if there are no negative reports the percentage will go up in the upcoming weeks/months). So we do need to touch the 1million per day mark somewhere along the line.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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depleter wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:58 pmSo after 1 week we may be just above 1million vaccinations. No where near enough. Our goal is 300million in the next 5-6 months. Even if take the current percent of 60% we may need to do 180million vaccinations(though I think if there are no negative reports the percentage will go up in the upcoming weeks/months). So we do need to touch the 1million per day mark somewhere along the line.
Totally agree. We need to hit 1 million a day fairly soon. Today, till 6 pm, it was 192.6K vaccinations. Probably will finish a tad bit ahead of the first day's 207.2K... (EDIT: It was 237K on Thirsday, which is higher than the 207K on Day 1 and 220K on Tuesday. Good to see some rise already)... Still basically only under 1.3 million for the week (1 in 1000 population). The numbers needs to keep going much further up. Need to see 250 or 300K a day next week, 400K the week after, 500K mid February, etc. I'm not seeing enough talk of raising the numbers like that. But we need to. If we aren't at at least 1 or 2 million per day by April, we won't get anywhere in getting even 100M or 150M vaccinated in the next 6 months. But then again, this is like when we started testing. We were pulling our hair out to see even 15K tests or 50K tests a day for a long time. Then it went up and suddenly jumped from 250K to 500K and even near 1.5 million later. Hope Dr. Harsh Vardhan will start talking of some targets like 2M a day by March... like his targets on testing (which they generally reached!). That will be cool.

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Meanwhile, it was +14.5K today, from about 918K tests @ 1.58%... A drop of about 169 in the 7-day average, to 14.0K... Kerala had 6.3K, MAH had 2.9K and the rest of India had just 5.3K... We vaccinated 192,581 by 6pm for 999,065 total. EDIT: The official final tally for the day is 237,050 with the cumulative total at 1,043,534...

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ICMR Update: 190,148,024 total tests... Thursday tests: 800,242


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Okay, the vaccinations numbers do show an upward trend. 227K by 6 pm today. So we should cross 250K for the first time today by late night.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:41 pm Okay, the vaccinations numbers do show an upward trend. 227K by 6 pm today. So we should cross 250K for the first time today by late night.
So, by the end of the day we did 347,058 with total being 1,390,592. Good increase but the peak days should be well over 1 million as almost all states has the program on selected days.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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depleter wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:19 amSo, by the end of the day we did 347,058 with total being 1,390,592. Good increase but the peak days should be well over 1 million as almost all states has the program on selected days.
Yes, it is good increase. Actually better than I expected a couple of days ago. I thought things might start to fizzle after the initial 200K on the launch-day hooplah, and that it may take a while more to start going up. But this is good, that it has been rising this week itself. I can live with 350K today and about 200K average for the first 7 days. Next week, we do need to see some peak days getting closer to 500K and an average at 350K or more. Hoping for that. If we go up like that and reach 1 or 2 million on peak days in the next month or two, that is about the best we can hope for.

Meanwhile, we had +14.3K cases today from about 938K tests at 1.53% positivity... The 7-day average dropped by 119 (but could've been 280 down, had KER's average not gone up by 160 today)... And Kerala is still only going up and up now. 6.7K out of our 14.3K was from KER. There was 2.8K in MAH and just 4.8K elsewhere. Here is another stark data point. If we take KER out, India's positivity is only 0.88% and if we take MAH also out, we have a 0.53% positivity. In fact, 1 in about 9 tested people in KER was positivity today, while only 1 in 210 tested people were positive outside of KER and MAH. That is incredible disparity. When will God come to help her own state? I guess the communists need to go first!

India was again only 10th in new cases and 18th in deaths on Friday, in the world. We are indeed fortunate in many ways. Both luck and pluck, all said and done.

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ICMR Update: 190,985,119 total tests... Friday tests: 837,095... Lab count: 2349


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Vaccination ranks of the states, after Friday... ODI (2977 per million), TEL, KAR, AP, HAR, KER (1346) are the top 6 among the most populous 22 states/territories with over 5 million population... The bottom 7 are MAH (614), RAJ, UP, BIH, MP, ASM, JH (369)... In the middle range are WB (872) and TN (682)... Assam surprises me. Not sure why Himanta has not moved the vaccination program quickly like he does everything else!

I guess we will compare things on a weekly basis every Sunday after the full Saturday final counts are known and all states are comparable. But some states like UP may be reporting a day later, so we will see. May take a couple of weeks for things to settle down into a proper predictable process.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

146,598 people vaccinated till 6 pm today (Saturday). Probably will be over 200K by end of day. EDIT: 191,609 was the final count (1,582,201 total)

+14.9K cases today from about 909K tests at 1.64%... 156 deaths... KER had 7K today, out of India's 14.9K... Only about 5.3K outside of KER and MAH today.

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ICMR Update: 191,766,871 total tests... Saturday tests: 781,752


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by sameerph »

Where do you get tally of Vaccinations done till date ?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

The AZN/Oxford vaccine clearly appears to be the worst of the lot (not counting the Chinese and Indian local ones). Hopefully the JNJ one is indeed as promising as the early results and we can start mass producing that quickly.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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sameerph wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:17 amWhere do you get tally of Vaccinations done till date ?
The Government of India Press Information Bureau page with All Press Releases. https://pib.gov.in/allRel.aspx (Scroll down to the releases from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, MoHFW). I have found PIB to give the 6 pm and the next day 8 am (late night results) releases regularly within a few hours or so, and you can search by date for earlier press releases too. I also check some twitter and telegram pages that may come a bit earlier with the MoHFW release but PIB is the most reliable place so far. I cannot find it at the MoFHW site itself, like they do for the case numbers, though they show the total vaccination number on their front page soon after 8 am every day.

But just as I say it, I find that PIB has not put up the Sunday 8 am numbers even now. So, no idea :)

Try this telegram page (the source of what used to be at the twitter page The_Updater) - https://telegram.me/Allindia_covid ... They usually post whatever latest info that becomes available from states and ministries, so usually you will find it there. But a lot of scrolling. I don't like Telegram though.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Here are the Sunday morning vaccination totals and state ranks per 1000 population that I calculated. From the first Saturday and the first full week (8 days). Will post updates every Sunday.

Code: Select all

Name			Total	Per 1000 people
Lakshadweep		633	9.043
Andaman/Nicobar		1998	5.033
Arunachal Pradesh	6511	4.329
Tripura			14252	3.570
Odisha			152371	3.489
Mizoram			3979	3.338
Telangana		110031	2.956
Karnataka		188971	2.872
Andhra Pradesh		147030	2.816
Haryana			71297	2.487
Ladakh			558	1.904
Himachal Pradesh	13544	1.855
Nagaland		3443	1.601
Kerala			53529	1.524
Sikkim			960	1.446
Delhi			25811	1.303
Chandigarh		1502	1.274
Gujarat			78466	1.155
Daman and Diu		283	1.110
Punjab			30319	1.015
Goa			1561	1.014
Chhattisgarh		28732	1.000
Puducherry		1478	0.983
Dadra/NagarHaveli	345	0.958
Uttarakhand		10514	0.944
Jammu & Kashmir		11647	0.882
West Bengal		84505	0.872
Rajasthan		67270	0.871
Maharashtra		99885	0.818
Tamil Nadu		59226	0.782
Manipur			2319	0.747
Meghalaya		2236	0.694
Bihar			76125	0.637
Uttar Pradesh		123761	0.550
Madhya Pradesh		38278	0.465
Assam			13881	0.405
Jharkhand		14806	0.396
Miscellaneous		40144	

INDIA			1582201	1.187
Here is the order among the 22 larger states with over 5 million people -- ODI (3.489), TEL, KAR (2.872), AP, HAR, HP, KER (1.524), DEL, GUJ, PUN, CHG, UK, J&K, WB (.872), RAJ, MAH, TN (.782), BIH, UP, MP, ASM, JH (.396).

The first 8 up to Delhi are over the national average (1.187 per 1000 people). The next 14 are below. But it is all early. After 2 or 3 weeks, we should have a pretty clear idea. But the ODI-TEL-AP-KAR belt is doing significantly better than everybody else. About 3 or more times better.

TN and Assam continue to be the only states whose ranks surprise me. They are both capable of doing much better but aren't.