Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

+20.3K today from about 986K tests at 2.06%... The cases are some 4300 less than last week's... So the 7-day average dropped yet again today, by 612... The deaths were 282, so the third day in a row under 300... So we are still dropping and dropping.

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ICMR Update: 168,818,054 total tests... Sunday tests: 715,397 ... really low even by Sunday standards... People on vacation, I guess... Lab count: 2284


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by usaindia »

Maybe more will expected as we have new film releases in Andhra and it seems people are watching https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ent ... 974998.cms


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Nuts!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

usaindia wrote: Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:05 am Maybe more will expected as we have new film releases in Andhra and it seems people are watching https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ent ... 974998.cms
All of AP had just 212 cases today, on testing at 0.6% positivity (1 in 175 tests). Maybe there aren't too many cases floating around, and people watching movies is okay in AP right now. At some point we need to just become normal. Hopefully everybody is wearing masks (and if they aren't; it is their fault if they get Covid somehow).

Update: Only +16.1K today, from about 857K tests, at 1.88% positivity... Glad to see the positivity dropping much faster than the number of tests... The 7-day average dropped by another 440 to 21.3K.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

jayakris wrote: Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:34 pm
usaindia wrote: Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:05 am Maybe more will expected as we have new film releases in Andhra and it seems people are watching https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ent ... 974998.cms
All of AP had just 212 cases today, on testing at 0.6% positivity (1 in 175 tests). Maybe there aren't too many cases floating around, and people watching movies is okay in AP right now. At some point we need to just become normal. Hopefully everybody is wearing masks (and if they aren't; it is their fault if they get Covid somehow).
Hardly 20-30% of the people wear masks nowadays :oof: .I'm still surprised case count is so low.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ I meant, in the theaters... Hopefully at least a majority of the people will be wearing masks in the theaters, if not all.... Actually, I believe the rule is that theaters should allow only 50% audience for social distancing and that everybody should wear masks. But I assume that rules are never strictly adhered to, in India. Otherwise, yeah, it seems only very few people are bothering with masks these days in India.

Here it is, in picture - Hrithik Roshan watches 'Wonder Woman 1984' :) ... He may have bought the whole theater for this :)

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ICMR Update: 169,801,749 total tests... Monday tests: 983,695... Lab count: 2285


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Only +21.5K ion Tuesday, from about 1047K tests @ 1.96%... 285 deaths. The cases are about 3300 less than on last Tuesday, which meant the 7-day average of daily case additions dropped by around 475 yet again, to 20.9K... Still following almost a straight-line drop, with no sign of flattening.

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ICMR Update: 170,922,030 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,120,281... That is much higher than in recent days... Lab count: 2288


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Back to some high level of testing today... Only +21.9K today (about 3K less than on last Wednesday), from about 1126K tests at 1.95% positivity... So testing went up and positivity was our lowest ever today. The deaths were slightly higher at about 299, but Wednesday has lately been the peak day for cases and deaths. The 7-day average of case additions continued to drop. About a -400 today, to 20.5K...

All good, except in Kerala where it was another +6.3K at 9.8% positivity. They refuse to change what they are doing. Utter insanity by Kerala authorities. They still insist on a useless quarantining regime, only to act like they know what they are doing. People hide away and delay taking tests, and meanwhile infect others. Forget this quarantining/babysitting business. It is of no use at this point. Just get people to take tests early. Get them to take responsibility. They will, if you stop trying to control their lives. Idiot authorities. It is about 40 days now, since KER came down to 5300 daily average, but it has gone up and down between 4900 to 5300 range of average daily additions, and is back to 5300 again. Generally on a slight upward curve now, and there is no sign of any sustained drop for 6 weeks. It is nothing but incompetence by Pinarayi and Shailaja. Can't call it anything else.

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ICMR Update: 172,049,274 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,127,244... A high number again. Good. Lab count: 2289


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by SaniaFan »

jayakris wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:06 pm The deaths were slightly higher at about 299, but Wednesday has lately been the peak day for cases and deaths.
Why would a particular day be peak day for deaths? Cases may be because of more testing.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

SaniaFan wrote: Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:24 pm
jayakris wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:06 pm The deaths were slightly higher at about 299, but Wednesday has lately been the peak day for cases and deaths.
Why would a particular day be peak day for deaths? Cases may be because of more testing.
Just paperwork delay. The deaths are reported from hospitals at a delay, then checked, sometimes audited, etc. So what gets reported over the weekend sometimes get pushed to next week, and adds to the numbers typically on Tuesday/Wednesday. So I have noticed a slight increase like 10 percent on those days. That's all.

Unlike this, the positive cases get input into the online system by the labs and technicians who do the test; so they can be tallied immediately. Thus the case reports come within 24 hours (some states tally it the same day by night; many report it the next day). So, it follows the pattern of testing like you said.

EDIT: An example - from Maharashtra's bulletin today - "Of the 58 deaths reported today, 30 occurred in the last 48 hours and 15 in the last week. Rest 13 deaths are from the period before last week"... That is the paperwork delay I was talking about.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Wow... We dropped to just +19.98 today, to end the year... That too with a positively ridiculous positivity of 1.76% from about 1133K tests... Wow wow! ... We had 257 deaths today. The 7-day average of case additions also fell below 20K for the first time, with a drop of about -495 to 19.98K... That straight-line drop of about 400-450 per day shows no sign of flattening, even now. Only 4 states (KER, MAH, WB, CHG) had more than 1000 cases today.

We have had days when just Maharashtra had almost +25K cases. Now the whole of India is under +20K (and under 15K outside of Kerala)

It is almost exactly 6 months (26 weeks to the day) since we crossed +20K cases on July 2nd Thursday, that we are back down below 20K cases on a regular week day. We did 230K tests for that total on July 2nd at 9.6% positivity, and we did almost 5 times as many tests with 1133K today at 1.76% positivity... Our 7-day average of daily deaths was about 420 then and it is about 280 now... What a contrast, after 6 months!

HAPPY NEW YEAR, India!!

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ICMR Update: 173,111,694 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,062,420... Lab count: 2289


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Isn't it a bit weird that the farmer's protests and all the crowds and everything caused NO Covid spread at all. I thought Punjab and Haryana would at least go into a holding pattern in case numbers and it would slow down the drop of numbers. But instead both have dropped like rocks. Hryana, especially. Punjab has been low for a while (below 750) but showed no tendency to rise, falling to numbers near 250 instead... Haryana, which was up over 1500 for quite a while, has dropped below 300 too... The Haryana drop was not just in the Gurugram/Faridabad area affected directly by the Delhi wave which subsided. The central and western districts of Haryana also dropped.

So I guess there is still no big reason to assume that open air crowds causes serious Covid spread. But the farmers were staying put in tents, having community meals and all that. I thought they were really asking for trouble. So far, no sign of any trouble, despite all that.

The same thing from all the election crowds in Bihar, J&K etc. No spike from any of that. Only the Deewali get-togethers (mostly indoors, I guess) showed a clear impact on case numbers.

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Only +19.2K today (Friday), from about 1076K tests at 1.78% positivity... The deaths fell sharply to around 225 too... The 7-day average of case additions fell to 19.5K with another drop of 447 today... KER still had just under 5K, but on a week-to-week basis the positivity has fallen by about a percent this week in KER, so hopefully things are getting ready to drop in KER too (keeping my fingers crossed).

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ICMR Update: 173,941,658 total tests... Friday tests: 829,964... Low testing on New Years holiday... Lab count: 2294


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Only +18.1K today, as the New Years Day test total was a little less... Still we did 974K tests and got an 1.86% positivity. Also, the deaths fell to just 216 today. The 7-day average fell only a little, -64, because last Saturday was also low count day due to Christmas. Let us wait for a week to see if there is any flattening or rise due to all the holiday get-togethers... Nothing visible yet from the Christmas holiday anywhere.

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ICMR Update: 174,899,783 total tests... Saturday tests: 958,125... Lab count: 2295


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

Approving Bharat Biotech's vaccine without any public phase 2 data and no phase 3 trials sounds very dangerous.

One adverse event and we will see confidence about vaccines drop severely.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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^^^^ It seems they are not planning to administer it. Sounds like a political thing, to approve it, just to say that we also have a domestically developed vaccine ready (when it really isn't :) ), and to trumpet that we are the 5th country to develope one, etc....

AIIMS Chief, Dr. Randeep Guleria, clarified today that Covaxin of Bharat Biotech is being kept only as backup, and that they will be using the 50 million doses of the Oxford Covishield that Serum institute has made so far. By the time they get done with that, they expect data on Covaxin phase-III to be available. They also are unsure of the efficacy of Covishield, they say. That also makes sense, as it is 70% or 90 percent or somewhere in between, based on different trials so far.

I assume they have seen partial data from the phase-III study on Covaxin and are feeling reasonably okay with it so far. Otherwise, it would be extremely risky like you say. But then again, developing vaccines does not seem to be rocket science anymore, and so many groups have made vaccines with none of them looking problematic in trials so far. I guess the steps to avoid side effects are all rather well-known... Just my guesses on a topic that I know nothing about.

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Only +16.7K today, with our best-so-far positivity of 1.74% from about 958K tests... Deaths stayed low at 215 too... The 7-day average dipped another 522, to 18.9K as well.