Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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depleter
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

Well, looks like Feluda was already launched last monday.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/health/f ... eFQsO.html
TataMD Check test kits will be manufactured at a quality-controlled production facility near Chennai, Tamil Nadu. The production plant presently has a capacity of producing 1 million kits in a month.
Capacity of 1 million a month......Ughhh this amount will not even be enough for a single big state, forget about the whole country. If the price is really what they said it would be, I see no reason why majority if not all of the antigen tests shouldn't be replaced with these tests.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

Feluda comes and Feluda goes. :-) :-(


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Yeah, Feluda comes and Feluda goes...

One million a month is not even a drop in the ocean. If they need to use it properly, they had better get 20 times as many tests manufactured per month. At least 500K per day is needed. If they can ramp it up to 5 or 10 times the 1M/month capacity in a couple of months time, it could be extremely useful when our next wave will hit us. From what the world is experiencing, we have to imagine that our second wave will be well underway in a couple of months. If a lot of those infections can be caught early cheaply, we may even be able to stop the wave in its tracks. But as of now, Feluda is not even part of the discussion. Terrible news, on the production capacity.

----------------
ICMR Update: 125,698,525 total tests... Sunday tests: 861,706... Normal low count for a sunday... But they had better test a lot more this week to catch a bunch of infections that were missed in the last 3 days. We have had three days of poor testing due to Diwali and the weekend.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We only had +30.7K and +28.6K the last two days, due to reduced Diwali testing. We still have not got test results from the shamelessly incompetent officials from Maharashtra, but making reasonable guesses of59K, 35K and 35K tests each for the last three days, the approximate guesses on total tests by India the last three days are 1022K, 776K and 711K, with positivity 4.08, 3.95 and 4.02% for the last three days. Nothing terrible, but I think some 20K+ patients have not been found in the last three days, and should be getting added in the coming days (when hopefully the testing will improve!)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Three days of reduced testing is awful. These are not normal times and neither are we going to have a vaccine immediately nor are we close to herd immunity. We must have missed around 20-25K cases per day. :kookoo:


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

Moderna with unsurprisingly similar numbers to Pfizer.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/16/mod ... data-show/


Stat's take on the future outlook

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/16/wit ... tions-too/


Yes, Moderna CEO has also been selling his stock.

No, Modern vaccine doesn't need to be stored at -70F and a normal refrigeration would suffice.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

suresh wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:30 am Three days of reduced testing is awful. These are not normal times and neither are we going to have a vaccine immediately nor are we close to herd immunity. We must have missed around 20-25K cases per day. :kookoo:
Yeah. I think everybody needs to realize that we are in it for quite a long time. At least till after summer next year, but probably till sometime in 2022 by when a lot of people could be vaccinated. Multiple waves will come and go, as we have seen world over. Have to expect it in India too. Keep testing at a high level and catching them early before they infect others, that is all we can do... otherwise, the period between the waves will be short. Should try to take it out nearly fully (meaning, less than 5K or 10K in India per day) after every wave, with lots of testing.

But we probably did not miss as much per day as you felt, Suresh. Our general level is only around +42K now. We probably missed about 10-12K per day. On Sunday, we miss some always anyway, and it is unavoidable.

But testing seems to have been bad on Monday too... That is really worrisome. Hopefully the states will report a lot more than what ICMR just showed.

ICMR report: 126,542,907 total tests... Monday tests: 844,382 ... Hope to see at least 900K reported on Tuesday


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We had +38.5K cases today from about 921K tests at 4.18% (EDIT: Looks like Nagaland made a typo and showed 19K extra tests; I had noticed it. They corrected the total on Tuesday, so it was 902K tests @ 4.27%)... Maharashtra finally gave the test total for the last 4 days as 125K... Not good at all, but the cases are pretty low in MAH now, and so the positivity is just under 10%... But they need to bring it to below 6%, to cut the CFR which is still more than twice India's average. Same story. Maharashtra is the one state that NEVER figured out what to do on testing and never did it right. They are still not doing it right.

But the states that are really asking for huge trouble are Haryana and Rajasthan now. The death numbers are going up there, and the cases are coming out like crazy (about +5K between them), and both states testing just around 12K to 16K each these days, and getting positivities around 16 or 17% ... This is just absolutely ridiculous for states who knew how to do it just closing shop and going home on the testing matter. Just at the worst time. They are affected by the Delhi growth, but they aren't helping themselves either. Another terrible case in HP. Just testing a few thousands and getting positivities over 20 and 25% these days. What is wrong with these people?

All other areas are generally fine for now... Delhi may have just gone over the peak too (hopefully). We will see. Kerala is still sleep-walking but the positivity is not going much above 10 right now, and the numbers are inching down, so things are okay there too.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Sin Hombre wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:41 amModerna with unsurprisingly similar numbers to Pfizer. https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/16/mod ... data-show/
Stat's take on the future outlook. https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/16/wit ... tions-too/
Yes, Moderna CEO has also been selling his stock.
No, Moderna vaccine doesn't need to be stored at -70F and a normal refrigeration would suffice.
And here are comments from a lot of experts on all four of the promising biggie vaccines - Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik or Oxford? Experts discuss which coronavirus vaccine is best for India

Looks like all but Pfizer are possibilities in India with the polio vaccine infrastructure we have. Dr. Gagandeep Kan's comments on India being the top vaccine manufacturer but not having a vaccine delivery system for adults (except pregnant women etc) is interesting. I guess we will just have to get it done. But then, we didn't have a testing program for any disease anywhere near as effective as the testing program we set up in 4-5 months for Covid... We test better than most of the world for Covid -- which is a fact, Maharashtra notwithstanding. So we can do things if we put our mind into it.

Cut the two-year (end of 2022) time-frame that Dr. Kang gives to vaccinate all adults, to half it's length, and have most Indians vaccinated by early 2022 to get back to normalcy. That is what we should look at, based on early info at this point. I have no idea how easy it is to accelerate things on setting up the vaccine supply-chain and vaccine-administering infrastructure, though.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Are there any worries that both Moderna and Pfizer use vaccine techniques that have never been tried out in humans! I have read couple of articles that kinda describe how it works, but I have to admit :tomato: I don’t understand it completely


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ I was wondering about the same thing too. Maybe we should assume that it will take a little while more to know if there are any crazy side effects...?

-----------------
ICMR Update: 127,480,186 total tests... Tuesday tests: 937,279 ... We should be back to over 1M tests reported by the states... Lab count: 2113


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We had +45.4K today from about 1080K tests @ 4.20%... Not bad. The seven-day average again dipped, and we are under 40K per day now... Good that the tests are back up near 1.1M again...

--------------
ICMR Update: 128,508,389 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,028,203 ... Lab count: 2116


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We stay at the same level with +46.2K today... From 1142K tests at 4.04%... Glad to see the testing numbers coming back up... I was worried that everybody who took time off for Diwali would continue to goof off. Actually the good news today is that Rajasthan and Haryana did tests at the 30K level each and both got 8.0% positivity, down from 12 to 16 in recent weeks... If those two take care of business with testing and prevent any explosion, we are in decent shape for now. Himachal Pradesh remains a concern. They need to test at least 15K there but are doing just 4 or 5K... Manipur and Nagaland need to do more tests too, but their case numbers are pretty small.

See today's updates for numbers.. Except for the areas near Delhi, UP is fine. Kerala is well past the peak, but is dropping only very slowly (as they continue to sleep-walk on testing). Maharashtra, AP, TN, TEL etc are all doing great. Bihar and Karnataka are doing superb testing. JH, Assam etc too. Chattisgarh also has got a grip on things and are keeping the positivity under 7 or 8 percent. West Bengal case numbers are not rising but they are testing similar to Kerala. Not enough, so the drop is very slow, but not in any huge trouble either.

So generally in good shape all around, except Delhi, which is still a mess... mostly because Kejriwal, Sisodia, etc remained pretty much clueless and slow to respond, for way too long. They are in a club of their own, with Uddhav and Tope, on cluelessness. The Amit Shah orders may start adding some tests from tomorrow onward in Delhi though (increase RT-PCR from 15K to 60K is the order). But I don't know what the hell Amit Shah was doing for months when the fools kept screwing up in Delhi... Why was Amit Shah sleeping on it this long?... Waiting for 100+ deaths to happen a day in Delhi?... Meanwhile, the Delhi High Court was again all over the state government today, for the umpteenth time. One question the HC had was - "what were you doing after November 1st when the case numbers were already way up, still allowing the larger weddings of 200 people, until Nov 18th?" ... That question explains what has been wrong in Delhi. They had relaxed the 50-max ban on weddings months ago, but had not reissued the ban till this week, if you can believe that. Idiots. The Kejriwal Govt has just not been on top of things all along, and were always too late in responding. Kichdiwal is still Kichdiwal, an honorable idealistic disgrace of an IITan.

---------------
ICMR update: 129,591,786 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,083,397... Lab count: 2121


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by SaniaFan »

While I agree with issues of delhi govt and centre, there are two things I don't understand.
Even if the max limit was increased for wedding, do people not see that it is an issue and not go to weddings of distant relatives. Why are they waiting for authorities to take such action? I mean half of the people are not wearing masks and many of those who are wearing are only doing it to avoid fine.
Second thing is that it was obvious that testing need to be increased, so why Amit shah need to intervene to increase that. I don't buy the argument that Kejriwal and sisodia don't understand that. Also on one is complaining about each other. There is not much of blame game also.This is very strange. I know that there are no elections round the corner but still.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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SaniaFan wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:16 pmEven if the max limit was increased for wedding, do people not see that it is an issue and not go to weddings of distant relatives. Why are they waiting for authorities to take such action? I mean half of the people are not wearing masks and many of those who are wearing are only doing it to avoid fine.
People are just irresponsible to themselves... Everywhere. India is not particularly worse, compared to all places other than some Asian countries where people got into the habit of wearing masks during previous outbreaks like SARS and bird flu and all that.

On the other hand, scientists have a lot of blame in it, as they (as well as the politicians who parroted them) never explained to people the real mechanics of how a mask helps. The world screwed up in saying that a mask is for helping others. What kind of BS is that? :) ... People don't want to help others by not coughing and all that, especially when they don't even know they have the disease!! It should have been for helping themselves and only for that. They should've been told that touching the nose is the worst thing they could do. None of that was never said properly to people. People aren't dumb, and they are usually selfish. Messaging on masks was terrible. And then crazy nutjobs got into it with conspiracy theories and God wanting people to breathe and all that in other countries. This has not been an issue in India, but still people aren't wearing masks. Oh well.
Second thing is that it was obvious that testing need to be increased, so why Amit shah need to intervene to increase that. I don't buy the argument that Kejriwal and sisodia don't understand that. Also on one is complaining about each other. There is not much of blame game also.This is very strange. I know that there are no elections round the corner but still.
You mean "no one" is complaining, right? (typo?)... I completely agree. There has been so little blame game in India that it is mind-boggling. Even in places where elections were held, like Bihar, nobody tried to blame the state government or the center. More interestingly, Bihar has done a fantastic job in testing and containing it, and nobdoy takes credit. In fact, places like UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, and now Karnataka (though belatedly) have done a great job of testing and keeping the CFR low etc, but I see none of the politicians taking credit. Very curious. I think it is showing that our politicians really don't have a clue and don't understand any of these things! Even if they do, I think they are so unused to framing these things in political language.

Actually, this is one thing on which I give Modiji credit. Had he started any blame game, it would've spread across politicians (like in the case of Trump). On that matter, he showed great maturity and leadership. It caused a lot of deaths in Maharashtra though. Somebody had to go after the Maharashtra government, and nobody did. Everywhere else, the lack of political gaming has only helped in the Covid matter.