Not Kerala. Kerala is only in its first peak. The earlier numbers in Kerala don't matter. The peaks after community transmission starts is what matters. The first one was just controlled and ended. Once community transmission starts, it is a whole other story, and Kerala totally screwed it up by continuing to focus on containment zones and all that crap, that really don't help. Lots of testing and quick test results are what matters (some families can protect each other within households).suresh wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:16 amI keep nervously checking to see if the numbers start to rise or flatten. My worry is that the second peak has been higher as happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic. We already have Delhi and Kerala heading towards their second peak. I shudder to think what might happen when TN/Maharashtra start to inevitably rise again. The number of deaths also going down is also a good thing.
We may not even have second peaks in most states because the first peak got spread over a long time, and it got to most parts of most states before the states went past a peak and went to low numbers (this didn't happen in Europe or USA, and that is why second peaks started, caused by OTHER places where it never got to before it spread in some places and got somewhat contained in those places).
I am not sure how many places are left for the virus to get to and India. It is in community transmission everywhere, I think. But some places are bound to be there, and cases may rise in such districts (or certain parts of cities, like happening in Delhi)... But I doubt if we would see huge numbers. But if we go down to 20K cases a day or something, we shouldn't be surprised if we go back up to 40K or 75K or something again.
In other words, I have no clue, and don't take any predictions from me seriously