Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We only had +45.5K today, our lowest number in 90 days! .... Even with a Sunday drop, I didn't expect it it to fall below 50K or 48K. Man.... And it was from about 963K tests, so the positivity was an excellent 4.73% ... No idea when we had such a low positivity rate. Maybe 6 months ago in April.

The recoveries were about 25K more than the new cases today too, so our active case number dropped below 750K today.

But the slightly accelerating growth rate in WB is really really problematic. I have been warning for some 3-4 weeks now that this would happen if they did not raise the testing numbers and used AG tests, and it is going exactly as I expected. And it is festival season npw, and it could get really bad. I am expecting 6000 to 10000 cases a day in WB soon, unless they do something urgently with AG testing (they have been near the RT-PCR capacity for over 2 months; can't raise that much above 50K anyway)

Death rate in Chattisgarh and Punjab are the next serious concern. 56 deaths in CHG today. That is unacceptable. They too don't do AG tests. Punjab's death rate (the highest in the country now) need urgent attention. They also don't do enough AG tests. When will all these idiots get a grip? Kerala doesn't test well, but must be judiciously using AG tests (they do some but not in large number) because kerala still has dropping death rate which is around 0.3 percent. No idea how they can keep it that low with such poor testing numbers and high case numbers.

Then we have Rajasthan not showing any serious dropping but still rising. They have a bit of the Kerala issue. Did very well for a long time on contact tracing and testing, and now totally out of steam and not even testing properly. They reported just 12K tests yesterday and 9K today for some 4000 total cases at around 20% positivity. What the hell are they doing in Rajasthan?

So, let us not celebrate yet. Too many states are just not doing the easier thing of AG tests and the central Government is showing ZERO leadership in twisting some arms and making them do it.

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ICMR Update: 96,116,771 total tests... Monday tests: 1,032,795... Lab count: 1968


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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Some data on critical patient treatment facility improvements since April (from the central ministry of health & welfare)

"The oxygen production capacity enhanced from 5,913 MT in April to 6,862 MT in Sept, it will go up to 7,191 MT by October end.... In April 2020, there were 57,924 oxygen supported beds, 23,815 ICU beds and 11,993 ventilator beds. On October 19, there were over 2.65 lakh oxygen supported beds, 77,136 ICU beds and 39,527 ventilator beds... On Sept 1 a total of 43,022 cases required oxygen support (ICU, Ventilator & O2 supported beds), it increased to over 75,000 on Sept. 25, then it started declining and now 57,357 patients on oxygen support."

That is actually more improvement than I thought we had made in 6 months. The number of ICU beds and ventilator beds went up about 3.5 times. In fact the only thing on which we actually hit national and regional capacity was the oxygen cylinder supply. Near the peak, we had some states really scrambling with the logistics of oxygen cylinder distribution (some states bickering about other states not letting cross-border movement of cylinders, executive orders on it from some CMs, etc)... That existed only 2 or 3 weeks. We are well below capacity utilization now.

All in all, we did survive. It is quite an accomplishment that a country that is among the bottom 1/6th of countries in healthcare expenditure as a fraction of GDP, managed to keep the death rates at 1.5%, well below the world average of 2.8% after 6 months... In fact, it was delays in people coming forward to get tested, and then some testing results delays that caused a lot more deaths than we need to have. If some states like Maharashtra and West Bengal had done a better job, we could have had the death rates near 1.00% or lower.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Looks like we won't even cross +55K today, on a Tuesday, that used to be the start of our weekly "spike days" :) ... It's a drop of about 9K from last Tuesday. In just one week. The rate of drop in numbers seems to show no slowing down, still - thoygh I keep waiting for things to level off. It will, sometimes soon. Not sure at what level. 40K? 30K? 20K?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

jayakris wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:40 pm Looks like we won't even cross +55K today, on a Tuesday, that used to be the start of our weekly "spike days" :)
Well from.what I saw both Kerala and Maharashtra were higher than yesterday and so was wb. Big surprise if we are less 55k today.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Omkara wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:46 pmWell from.what I saw both Kerala and Maharashtra were higher than yesterday and so was wb. Big surprise if we are less 55k today.
Yesterday was Monday, which is always lower than other days by about 10K due to reduced numbers of tests on Sunday. It always goes up 10K or so after Monday. I expected around 57 to 60K today, but we may be at +54K. It just keeps dropping. Punjab had under 500 today and Assam 666. TN is about to fall below 3000. AP is down to 3500. These are all great numbers.

Update: So we had only +54.4K today, from about 1129K reported tests, which gave another day of very good positivity, at 4.82%... Maharashtra with 12.5%, Kerala with 12.2% and Chattisgarh with 11.5% were the worst. Nice to have no big states showing 13+ .... But the 9.6% in WB is what is bothering me most right now. No sign of any change, and this is quite surely going to get ugly soon.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Argh... Take a look at today's summary and bad-area analysis. West Bengal has made a grant entry back into the list. Right behind Kerala as the place producing the most cases at growth rate over 1.5 times the national average. Knew it was coming, and I was waiting for it, because of the bad testing that allowed the positivity to go up from near 5% to near 10% over the last several weeks, as the cases kept inching up rather than go down and the tests stagnated. Had WB done AG tests and taken this thing out of there before the festival season it would have really helped. But instead now we will see serious trouble. It is so sad to see predicted trouble happening because officials would not address the problem.

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ICMR update: 97,200,379 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,083,608... Lab count: 1976


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

Stupid people are going shoulder to shoulder during Durga Pujo. It was bound to happen.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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prasen9 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:20 pmStupid people are going shoulder to shoulder during Durga Pujo. It was bound to happen.
This rise from Durga puja right now was bound to happen. But the 1.5% growth (over 2 times the national rate) should have been happening from something like 1500 cases rather than from 3800 cases... This problem happened because the testing stagnated in August first week when the case numbers were coming down in West Bengal due to increased testing by mid to late August, it started inching up again in WB and they did nothing for weeks, as they were near capacity (possibly) on RT-PCR testing. Had they done AG testing like Bihar, Jharkhand and Assam nearby, this would not have happened and we would've been looking at the case numbers rising from sonmewhere around 1500 this week, and there would not be RT-PCR testing capacity issues either. But now WB is in all kinds of trouble. Mamata and her official screwed up big time over 7 weeks. WB people will pay for it now. I estimate something like an extra 100K to 200K infections and 2500-5000 extra deaths to happen in the coming weeks in WB purely due to the last 7 weeks of inaction. Hopefully I am wrong, and we won't see the daily cases in WB go up to 8000, 10000, or more soon. Hopefully I am badly wrong on this!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

I am not disputing anything you are saying but the photos of people partying like it was not 2020 were annoying.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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prasen9 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:14 pmI am not disputing anything you are saying but the photos of people partying like it was not 2020 were annoying.
Sorry, I was also not disputing anything. I am really annoyed too, at how people are behaving everywhere. Not just West Bengal... Saw horrific pictures from TN, Kerala, etc too. People have no sense at all, even after 7 months of this. But I kinda expected it, pretty much, though... Was ready to be annoyed I guess.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR Updates:
98,670,363 total tests... Wednesday: 1,469,984
100,113,085 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,442,722

We have gone past 100 million tests. Actually we went past it a few days ago, if we add the state reports all along. ICMR has been off by about 5 to 7 million. But on Wednesday they showed about 290K more than what the states reported on Thursday. I assume these are reconciliation numbers. I don't think the states will show 1443K on Friday either. But we are still continuing to test at a high level, and the positivity has now dropped below 4.6%


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by sameerph »

So, looks now we have settled at 50K-55K daily cases since last 1 week. This is the level which I expected us to drop to when our starts dropping and thought it would be difficult to drop below this level with our population and current spead level. Lets see if we are able to drop the cases below 50K and futher now or the cases go back up again from this. Now almost eveything is open all over India. So, next week or 15 days will show where we stand with this opening up.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ I don't know if we have settled, but we are probably close to it? Unsure... The way some of these states (Assam Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, etc) have just gone down to cases in the hundreds, maybe MAH, TN, AP, KER can all go down a lot more. Hard for me to believe they will, though.

We had a +53.9K on Friday from about 1184K tests, so the positivity stays at a very good 4.56% ....

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ICMR Update: 101,382,564 total tests... Friday tests: 1,269,479... Lab count: 1996


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Well, Sameer, it looks like our straight line drop curve is continuing. We are below +49K today, and Saturday is usually not a low count day. So we are still not showing a tendency to flatten and settle. Hmmm.... Maharashtra is heading to below +5000 now, unbelievable as it would've sounded just 3 or 4 weeks ago. EDIT: Oh, okay, Maharashtra was a bit more than I first saw... So we will be just over 50K today.

EDIT: We had +50.4K from about 1134K tests reported by the states, so the positivity again falls a bit, to 4.44% ...


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

I keep nervously checking to see if the numbers start to rise or flatten. My worry is that the second peak has been higher as happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic. We already have Delhi and Kerala heading towards their second peak. I shudder to think what might happen when TN/Maharashtra start to inevitably rise again. The number of deaths also going down is also a good thing.