Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

This is a place where you can enter any non-sports general topics
User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Holy crap... +11,755 in KER today... The state single handedly trying to flatten our falling daily additions curve. Argh :damn:


User avatar
depleter
Member
Member
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:41 am
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

jayakris wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:38 pm Holy crap... +11,755 in KER today... The state single handedly trying to flatten our falling daily additions curve. Argh :damn:
And that too from only 32.7K tests according to https://www.covid19india.org/ . That's more than 33%.


User avatar
prasen9
Member
Member
Posts: 14363
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 8:49 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: State College, PA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

I think at this point the government(s) are relying on herd immunity and have given up the fight. Or so it seems to me.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

depleter wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 1:50 am
jayakris wrote: Sat Oct 10, 2020 12:38 pm Holy crap... +11,755 in KER today... The state single handedly trying to flatten our falling daily additions curve. Argh :damn:
And that too from only 32.7K tests according to https://www.covid19india.org/ . That's more than 33%.
I think Covid19india had some number issues (or the state "reconciled" some total test data), as they actually said MINUS 32.7K tests. The actual tests were 66.3K, so the positivity was 17.7%, it seems. Pretty bad. Kerala is totally lost right now.

It was the first time in a very very long time (in some 6 months, or maybe ever?) that another state had more new cases than Maharashtra! Who would have thought it would be Kerala,of all places!

Anyway, we had +74.5K today... Still got a drop in 7-day average of new cases in India though. It was from around 1219K tests reported by the states, so our positivity was 6.10%

---------------------------

ICMR Update: 86,877,242 total... Tests on Saturday: 1,078,544 ...


Sin Hombre
Member
Member
Posts: 4490
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2010 6:59 pm
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: Chicago

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

prasen9 wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:50 am I think at this point the government(s) are relying on herd immunity and have given up the fight. Or so it seems to me.
They don't understand statistics.

Sweden tried herd immunity and they are only at 6-7% population yet.

Kerala has a 35 million population. Herd immunity will require at least 20 million catching it and even at 0.3% CFR, 60k people dying.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Exactly... They just don't have a sense of the magnitude of the numbers. Nobody should even mention herd immunity of the population.

But what is happening is that a lot of the super-spreaders have all done their jobs and are not spreading any more (maybe think of it as "herd immunity among the superspreaders"?). That is enough to reduce the daily counts after a point. It generally happens at less than 10% of the population turning positive and somewhere in the 10 to 25% of the population being exposed. It seems to have happened almost everywhere in India but a few places like Kerala remain now.

So we got only +67.9K today, and from about 1118K tests, and the positivity dropped a teeny bit to 6.07%... The 7-day average keeps on dropping. More importantly, the death count was down to 813 today, which is around 30 to 35% lower than our peak counts near 1250 several weeks ago.

See the summary and bad areas today. The "good areas" are producing less than 50K cases now and that number is reducing (so the good area growth rate is only around 0.75 percent!). Once Kerala, Chattisgarh and Karnataka go down (and if West Bengal does not get bad), we should be seeing 40K daily additions. Maybe in even 3 or 4 weeks. Places like Assam that once had 3000-4000 cases a day, have gone down to 500-750 now (actually it was only some 350 in Assam today, at some 3% positivity).


Sin Hombre
Member
Member
Posts: 4490
Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2010 6:59 pm
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5
Location: Chicago

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

jayakris wrote: Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:50 pm
But what is happening is that a lot of the super-spreaders have all done their jobs and are not spreading any more (maybe think of it as "herd immunity among the superspreaders"?). That is enough to reduce the daily counts after a point. It generally happens at less than 10% of the population turning positive and somewhere in the 10 to 25% of the population being exposed. It seems to have happened almost everywhere in India but a few places like Kerala remain now.
100% this.

I am surprised more of the mainstream media still hasn't caught on to this.


User avatar
prasen9
Member
Member
Posts: 14363
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 8:49 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: State College, PA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

I am not saying that we are going to reach herd immunity anytime soon. I think people have given up because the economy cannot sustain the hit anymore. Of course, in doing so we are spreading the disease more and, we may be actually creating more havoc on the economy.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

prasen9 wrote: Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:07 amI am not saying that we are going to reach herd immunity anytime soon. I think people have given up because the economy cannot sustain the hit anymore. Of course, in doing so we are spreading the disease more and, we may be actually creating more havoc on the economy.
Knew that you weren't talking about herd immunity... Like you said, some in the Government and others are hoping for such things. But then again, they are sort of right at this point, for a different reason like I said before. It is not going to go through the roof or anything now. I suspect we will never go back up near 100K cases anymore, even if we get some rises during the festival season. More probably, we will drop to 40K-60K range in the next 3-4 weeks and may rise back up to 50-70K for some weeks in Decemeber, at worst. That is all. We are well below hospital capacity now everywhere (except in Bengaluru and Kerala for now - but the Diwali festival season is not that big there). So nothing much to worry.

The worst is well behind us, almost definitely. No need to be too concerned.

Meanwhile, my wife took off to India in a hurry yesterday, as her mother in Mangaluru, Karnataka, had a health issue (she is fine). She landed Sunday night in Mumbai, and they took her straight for an RT-PCR test at the airport. They have a lab there itself, it seems. Got the negative result 6 hours later (she stayed at the airport hotel), and she is right now on her way to Mangaluru. It is nice to see all these systems working now. I think we will be in a new normal fairly soon, probably in a couple of months.

---------------

ICMR Update: 87,872,093 total tests... Sunday tests: 994,851... I think we will see something around 1 million from the states too. Lab count: 1922


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We had only +54.3K today, and the states reported 1130K tests, so we got a positivity of 5.27%, our lowest number since sometime in May or something. It was helped by a 108K AG test "mela" done by Assam, to catch a bunch of aces early (they got 1500 cases). But even otherwise, we had something around a 6.2% positivity, so it is going good. Only 710 deaths reported today. That is also the lowest in more than 2.5 months. Good.

-----------

ICMR update: 88,945,107 total tests... Monday tests: 1,073,014... Lab count: 1927


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We had only +63.7K today from about 1198.5K tests @ 5.80% with 723 deaths... Steadily dropping with no sign of even a decrease in the the rate of the drop we have seen for the last 30-40 days

Kerala is still a serious concern, as they again did only 48K tests (what the hell are Pinarayi and Shailaja doing there??? Get a grip people, and increase AG test availability, will you?)... KER had 18.2% positivity, which is simply unacceptable at this point. Even Maharashtra has gone down to 13.3% positivity and everybody else is under 10%... West Bengal keeps on rising gradually, and the tests are still stuck at 42K... That is another state that is making me a bit nervous.

Otherwise, things are fine everywhere. Karnataka has seriously got a handle on their testing situation and is consistently doing over 100K tests a day, which means they will start getting drops in case numbers pretty soon (which may have already started)... Their positivity has fallen from 12-15% to under 10 (actually 7.7% today). Assam did yet another testing "mela" with 126K tests. And we have my home state Kerala who have managed to cross even 70K tests only on a couple of days, while getting up to even +11.8K cases last week once (Assam never had more than +4500 cases). It is crazy how some states just cannot get the job done when others find no difficulty in doing it! .... Argh.


User avatar
depleter
Member
Member
Posts: 1145
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:41 am
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

Tamil Nadu's Death count is still high especially compared to AP. Is it because of their non use of antigen tests? May be with feluda coming they will change their mind. Like everyone is touting feluda as some kind of game changer. I wonder how much the number of tests done will go up, but I somehow feel they will rather go down.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

I too think TN is still catching many people late because of the insistence on RT-PCR tests. The one or two extra days of delays must be having an effect. Why not do AG tests at least on the symptomatic cases at hospitals and clinics, and catch at least half of the positives quickly? That has to be why the death numbers are not dropping fast enough. Who knows, though...

I am also curious about Feluda. 96% and 98% on false positives and false negatives sound so damn good, and they seem confident that it will be there in a month or so... Maybe that is what we will need to cut the numbers from 40-60K down to a few thousands. Hope so!

---------------
ICMR Update: 90,090,122... Tuesday tests: 1,145,015... Lab count: 1935


rajitghosh
Member
Member
Posts: 716
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:04 am
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

The original Feluda is dying of covid at a Kolkata Nursing Home. What an irony. Soumitra Chatterjee one of India's greatest actors ever is fighting covid and is in bad shape.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27813
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ I didn't know anything about the Feluda series of movies till the Covid paper-test came out. Learned something. Looks like it was a phenomenon. Hope the great actor will beat out Covid.

Meanwhile, we only had 67.9K today, out of which 4669 were cases that MP added from earlier on reconciliation, as they hadn't added thise private lab cases, they say. So it is in fact +63.4K cases found today. The reported test total was high too, at 1264K, so we got a 5.01% positivity. Very good! Even Kerala came down to 12.5% positivity today. The death total was down to 690, as Maharashtra came down to 158 deaths (as opposed to 300-400 deaths they had even 2 weeks ago). Looking very good now.

-----
ICMR update: 91,226,305 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,136,183... Lab count: 1944