Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Yeah, today's numbers don't mean much, as the tests were lower due to holidays. Anyway, we had +75.5K from about 1082K tests reported by the states... So the positivity went up a bit more from 6.77 to 6.97% today. No disaster, but we really need to increase the testing and shut the door on this virus in many places. I don't see it happening in most problem places.

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ICMR Update: 78,992,534 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,142,131... Lab count: 1873


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We only had +74.7K today... The states reported about 1160K tests, so the positivity was 6.45% ... Actually MP seems to have reconciled and added some extra 59K tests from earlier to their total today, and Maharashtra may have reduced their case total by a 1000 ("de-duplication" or something). If those are put back in, we had about 75.8K found today from about 1101K cases, which is closer to a 6.88% positivity . That is still less than yesterday's 6.97. Anyway, all good, either way... The case numbers and death numbers keep dropping, and there is no doubt about it. It is an actual drop and not because of any testing reduction or anything... The death numbers don't have much relation to the testing numbers and that is down near 900s now, from 1200+ per day that they used to.

The numbers will drop even more, as and when Kerala and Karnataka stop adding some 5 to 10K more cases than they should... Maharashtra's districts are all calming down rather fast, and the positivity is also falling in Maharashtra day by day. Nice... Finally.


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Kumar
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Looks like all those daily test is not preventing an outbreak among nfl players or in White House! Just curious, considering that NFL players are being tested daily , would their samples provide clue for infection(markers) that could potentially identify infected patients way earlier than current testing?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

IPL doesn’t seem to have this issue or French Open, right? I’m pretty sure that NFL has more violations than either. Could this be a factor? Plus, there is more contact and proximity in American football than probably any sport other then rugby.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

Kumar wrote: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:02 pm Looks like all those daily test is not preventing an outbreak among nfl players or in White House! Just curious, considering that NFL players are being tested daily , would their samples provide clue for infection(markers) that could potentially identify infected patients way earlier than current testing?
Testing alone cannot save you from getting infected. You need to wear masks and social distance. The utter morons at the White House did not wear masks and partied as if it was 2019.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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prasen9 wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:35 amTesting alone cannot save you from getting infected. You need to wear masks and social distance. The utter morons at the White House did not wear masks and partied as if it was 2019.
Yeah, check the video footage of all those people without masks (almost everybody) at the White House ceremony, in this piece:


I'm somewhat surprised though that this many infections (8 by the latest count) happened outdoors (as we had no reports of such a clear super-spreading outdoor event so far). My suspicion is that the infections happened somewhere else in a confined space in the white house, but in any event they were all being idiotic to an extent that is unimaginable.

Here is the president of the University of Note Dame, apologizing in a letter to the Univ students/staff, and I quote:
When I arrived at the White House, a medical professional took me to an exam room to obtain a nasal swab for a rapid COVID-19 test. I was then directed to a room with others, all fully masked, until we were notified that we had all tested negative and were told that it was safe to remove our masks. We were then escorted to the Rose Garden, where I was seated with others who also had just been tested and received negative results
(emphasis mine)... Can you believe that BS? The WH staff told them that it was "safe to remove the masks" after antibody tests which are known to have almost 50% false negatives. All these morons, who had not spent a minute updating themselves about what the scientists were saying, went along with the irresponsibility of the White House.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Now that we have gone past the first peak and seems to be on a clear downward trajectory (for some 25 days) with doubling period up to 60 days now, I don't think there is any need for me to do my weekly predictions. So I will skip it, until we start going up again - hopefully not. Will continue the daily updates and bad-area analysis, as that seems to still show some good info on where the problems are.

For the record, I predicted 6.640M to 6.670M very conservatively for today under the assumption that we might stop dropping... We continued to drop in numbers and finished with 6.622M, well below my mean prediction by some 33K...

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ICMR Updates: 79,982,394 total tests... Sunday tests: 989,860 ... Lab count: 1874


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

My question was with daily testing of NFL players, is there an opportunity to identify markers that would potentially identify positive cases before they start being infectious?

The sheer refusal to wear masks is just baffling!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Kumar wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:53 pmMy question was with daily testing of NFL players, is there an opportunity to identify markers that would potentially identify positive cases before they start being infectious?
My understanding is that all positive cases are infectious, and a high fraction of them are not symptomatic too. There may be differences in the viral load and so "how infectious" may be a question. I am pretty sure that the rapid Antigen/Antibody tests taken by NFL players are pretty simple "yes/no" tests and no further info is there on the level of viral load (and in fact there is 50% false negative probability too, though that may be a little less problematic, if they are tested daily - so if it is false, it will probably become good in a day or two). In RT-PCR testss, the number of cycles taken in the machine for a sample to test positive is apparently an indicator but even that is very unreliable and quite inaccurate.

Looks like we may not even cross +60K today, with a drop of over 9K from last Monday.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

jayakris wrote: Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:59 am I'm somewhat surprised though that this many infections (8 by the latest count) happened outdoors (as we had no reports of such a clear super-spreading outdoor event so far). My suspicion is that the infections happened somewhere else in a confined space in the white house, but in any event they were all being idiotic to an extent that is unimaginable.
It happened indoors. There are photos of people laughing around without masks. It is not just 8 people. By the latest count, it is 12 (see NYT for mugshots) not counting the two assistants of the press secretary and/or secret service and other security people who may have caught it later on from these morons.
The WH staff told them that it was "safe to remove the masks" after antibody tests which are known to have almost 50% false negatives.
It is not only the false negatives but the fact that you may test negative but still be sick and shedding virus. The virus will show up more in the tests after 2-3 days because the test is not that sensitive. Every scientist who works in the area worth their salt knows this. Biden is still testing negative, but the virus may manifest itself in the next 7 days or so. And a few days before that he may be shedding but the tests still come out negative until the concentration increases. Or at least that is what I know.

These guys are the biggest morons in the world. Well, or at least would give Bolsonaro and Borris a fight for the title. All three covidiots.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ Yep, prasen... Agree with what you're saying. They are all just morons.

Meanwhile, we only had +60.1 today, from around 950K tests reported by the states, for a 6.33% positivity. Lowest number of new cases in 6 weeks. The deaths were 885, and it has been under 1100 for 5 days in a row now (after going above 1200 for some days). That curve is also nicely coming down, though at a slow rate like the daily additions and active cases. But clear and sustained drops.

But some states are bugging me. Now Mamata and WB are bugging me yet again, for the third time. They have not raised testing in several weeks, and it has been inching down from 45K tests to 44K to 42K, while the case numbers inched up from 2800 to 3000 to 3300 and the positivity that we hoped to see in the 5s by now has gone back up to 7.5%... Asking for trouble. Just add some AG tests, please. Sort of the same thing as in TN...


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

UK Lost Data on 16,000 Covid-19 Cases Because 'Excel Didn't Have Enough Columns'

https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/uk-los ... 36651.html

Interesting that the headline says columns but the issue seems to be rows.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Atithee wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:01 amUK Lost Data on 16,000 Covid-19 Cases Because 'Excel Didn't Have Enough Columns'
Haha :D ... See, I told you it was all an Excel issue. Remember, my first complaint about Maharashtra way back in March or April was that they were screwing up on Excel. Now we know the first rule of pandemic control - have enough people who can deal with Excel :)

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ICMR Update: 81,071,797 total tests... Monday tests: 1,089,403... Not too high. Let's see what the states report tomorrow. Lab count: 1883


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

The total number of daily tests are also dropping. Right?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

suresh wrote: Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:36 amThe total number of daily tests are also dropping. Right?
It is, but seemingly at a lower rate than the case drop. This typically happens, as a lot of tests are done by asymptomatic people who themselves suspect that they might have got it from somebody who tested positive (or are contacted by the state and asked to test, though this is probably less now than earlier - before local transmission started). So when the case numbers go down, the tests also go down a bit. But the number of tests on symptomatic patients (ILi symptoms) do not reduce much, as only a low fraction of them are Covid cases and the rest are regular flu and other things. So, when the case numbers go down among Covid patients, the ILI test numbers only reduce by a much lower rate. I believe that is why the test positivity improves.

Update: We only had +71.9K today, and the testing does not seem to have been too bad at all, today. I think the positivity should be good, but I'll check once all the state reports are in. Kerala showed some signs of a drop, with a small drop in the positivity and the case numbers.