Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Sin Hombre
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Sin Hombre »

Agree with suresh. Let's wait for a couple more days of million plus testing.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

As you all would have seen, the more we unlocked the more people interacted the more cases went up. But we had to unlock. Now there is a pause in unlocking as most of the economy has opened up. So theoretically we are at peak or somewhere close to it. The next big impact will be during Dussehra and Diwali season. We may see a peak then for sure. In between let's wait and watch.

Only if the government took the call to increase testing by additional 50%, things would have been better.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Sin Hombre wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:53 amAgree with suresh. Let's wait for a couple more days of million plus testing.
Yeah, let us wait. We waited 6 months. Why not a few days more before saying "phew"? But it is nice to see that green graph of active cases at worldometers' india page decidedly turning downwards now though! It felt like we would never see it.... :)

---------

ICMR Update: 66,279,462 total tests... Tuesday tests: 953,683... I am sure we will see something above 1100K reported by the states on Wednesday though. Actually our total test count is somewhere over 70M but ICMR is continuing to not get some of the test counts that the states report (it has to be the negative counts, because the states' positives counts do match all the time). Lab count: 1786


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

jayakris wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:29 am But it is nice to see that green graph of active cases at worldometers' india page decidedly turning downwards now though! It felt like we would never see it.... :)
True words!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We only had +86,703 today, a week after the peak day last week at +97,860... An 11K drop from last week, and so our 7-day average curve dropped yet again for the 7th day, from 89,344 to 87,755...

The total test number did not drop either. The states reported about 1237K tests, roughly 1500 more than yesterday. Our positivity was 7.01% today, well below the 7.9% and 8.1 percent on last Wed/Thu....

So, good stuff continues. We just need to get the stupid Government in Kerala to stop sleepwalking. They were always big-talk and snail-walk. They continue to prove that. Kerala is one of the few places where the positivity went up today, and they even had more cases (5376) than TN (5325) today.
-----

ICMR update: 67,436,031 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,156,569


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

What name do I give my honorable Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan? Pinhead Vijayan? ... Just stick to Pinarayi (king of corpses)?

Kerala has let their testing rates go to hell for weeks, and did nothing to raise it as cases kept coming. Today it is a +6324. "Kerala model". Yeah, my posterior! The bloody leftist press from Kerala managed to get even NY Times to write about how well they were doing. The death numbers are still low, but they are now running into serious hospital issues, and it could get worse. They still tested only 55K at 11.5% ... They need to be doing 50K extra AG tests a day. I think all the bullshit about quarantine and tracing and publishing data and all that has made people stay away from getting themselves tested too. Like I often say, Kerala is, and has always been a failed state of educated idiots. Sorry to say that about my home state that I love, but that is the reality. It is the virus' own country now.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

We hit 90k today?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

Omkara wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:18 pm We hit 90k today?
No, may hit 85K I think.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

We have discussed here how actual cases in India maybe way higher than the ones reported. Now it looks like a popular opinion. I came across this group who seemed to be confident that total cases may just be 30-50% higher. The symptoms were so mild that even the patient didn't suspect. And hence maybe the curve will flatten / fall sooner than later. Hard to say whether this is a wishful thinking or there is some truth to it.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

depleter wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:33 pm
Omkara wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:18 pm We hit 90k today?
No, may hit 85K I think.
Yep. +85.9K in the end. I thought it would be a little bit higher, as Kerala and AP added at least 1500 more than I expected, at the start of the day. In the end, it is a drop despite all that.

Let me add up the test numbers and see what got reported today, for positivity. Won't be too bad. EDIT: Well, we had 1218K tests, as per the states. The positivity was 7.05%, about the same as yesterday.


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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

depleter wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:39 pm Tweet: Dr. Arvinder Singh Soin @ArvinderSoin
In other news, India has 40% of the confirmed cases of COVID reinfection! Many more not on this list.
Well, all or some of them could've had a false positive and then a correct positive. Or could be correct positive and then a false positive. It seems India has set a threshold for positives (in terms of cycles in the tests) a bit lower than other countries, from what I understand! So who knows. It could be like the family cases that Suresh mentioned.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Omkara wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:56 pmWe have discussed here how actual cases in India maybe way higher than the ones reported. Now it looks like a popular opinion. I came across this group who seemed to be confident that total cases may just be 30-50% higher. The symptoms were so mild that even the patient didn't suspect. And hence maybe the curve will flatten / fall sooner than later. Hard to say whether this is a wishful thinking or there is some truth to it.
Hey, the curve has flattened... Not just flattened; it is quite cleanly falling... so it is not wishful thinking, anymore :)

It is not because we had more cases or anything. We got the peak at pretty much the similar range of cases per population as most countries did (somewhere in the 1500 to 3000 per million)... We actually took a little longer, till it got to 4000 per million, because many states started their growth from local transmission 3 or 4 months after the biggie states like MAH, TN, AP. And I think many other countries' numbers are much worse lower-counts than ours, because we tested at a higher rate even at the peak than most countries did (of course their test positivity fell after the peak, like ours will too).

Delaying the peak this much, is actually our success story, though it was such a frustrating wait for 6 months.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

jayakris wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:24 pm
depleter wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:39 pm Tweet: Dr. Arvinder Singh Soin @ArvinderSoin
In other news, India has 40% of the confirmed cases of COVID reinfection! Many more not on this list.
Well, all or some of them could've had a false positive and then a correct positive. Or could be correct positive and then a false positive. It seems India has set a threshold for positives (in terms of cycles in the tests) a bit lower than other countries, from what I understand! So who knows. It could be like the family cases that Suresh mentioned.
A serological study showed that roughly 20-30% of the cases are like that of my family i.e., no antibodies present a few weeks after infection! As Jay correctly points out, reinfection could also mean that they were not infected in the first place and picked up a real infection the second time around. It could also be wrong both times. So while RT-PCR is the best test around, the positivity data is somewhat suspect in my mind. Now I wish that ICMR had not ducked on setting a threshold for the cycling times (Ct).


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

ICMR tests update : daily - 1,492,409 , total - 68,928,440. Now, is this reconciliation for the last few days as the ICMR was reporting lower and lower numbers compared to states ? Or are we gonna go for a huge day with 100K+ cases for the first time in the world.