Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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rajitghosh
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

rajitghosh wrote:
Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:39 pm
No tracing done in my society where a dozen cases were found.
Corporation people didn't even visit. Even the society was not sealed off. They have just given up.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Look at our problem states right now, in today's updates (excluding Maharashtra, on whom I had given up long ago, as they've been on another planet in the trouble universe):

+4198 in ODI from 49393 tests @ 8.5%
+2540 in KER from 22279 tests @ 11.4% :damn:
+2421 in PUN from 19097 tests @ 12.7% (67 deaths) :damn:
+1043 in UK from 9617 tests @ 10.8% :damn:
+2488 in HAR from 24468 tests @ 10.2% :damn:
+8244 in KAR from 45961 tests @ 17.9% (119 deaths) :damn:
+2483 in MP from 20855 @ 11.9% :damn: ...
+937 in RAJ (night) for 1730 from 13875 tests @ 12.5% :damn:
+3336 in CHG from 21562 tests @ 15.5% :damn:

These are the states that have not flattened and could all grow to really high numbers, if they continue to test poorly like this. Only Delhi and Jharkhand among the "still growing" states are doing fine. It is just sad to see states like Kerala and Rajasthan screwing up this badly, after doing all the great work earlier. Odisha may survive from this group, but everybody else could really pay for it, unless they do something urgently. I'm not hoping for any action from any of these states, or from the Centre, though. They have all given up, and I am just a lone warrior still even bothering to check!

The 11 "Good" states not in trouble: UP, Bihar, TN, W.Bengal, AP, Gujarat, Telangana, Assam, Jharkhand, J&K, Delhi



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We had +81.7K cases today. The usual Monday drop. But the states reported only about 968K tests. That is just about 10K more tests than reported last Monday when we only had +75K cases. So the positivity was 8.47% today, compared to 7.84% last Monday. Not good at all. We are seriously lagging in testing. It better improve this week. If not, we had better expect +125K cases a day in 2-3 weeks time.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

A very interesting article that points to RT-PCR not being necessarily the best testing strategy for pandemic control, even if it is the so-called "gold standard" for individual level identification of infection. More Rapid Antigen Tests, Less RT-PCR Ones: Why We Need To Rethink Covid-19 Testing

The CT value (cyclic threshold value) which says how many cycles of testing is done on the machine before the positive is identified, is apparently quite important. The US has it at 37 and India has it at 40, as per ICMR guidelines. It seems just reducing it to 30 would make substantially fewer cases to be counted.

Are we actually finding way too many asymptomatic cases than we should be finding? I had always felt that this was the case. Probably twice as many, in my opinion.

What do you all think?



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR update: 58,312,273 total tests... Monday tests: 1,072,845... It is not rising like we want. Let us see if the positivity gets terrible on Tuesday or if we will actually start getting lower case numbers somehow by miracle... Lab count: +9 to 1726



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The numbers don't seem to have risen today. We may even have a drop from the Sunday number... AP really dropping now. And telangana of course. Karnataka showed a nice drop even though the tests were not that much fewer, but KAR numbers go up and down very unpredictably, so it may be just a temporary drop.

But Maharashtra had 515 deaths. Can you believe this crap that everybody allows to go on? The growth rate in death numbers is worse than that of case numbers these days in Maharashtra. Every damn stat keeps ion getting worse in Maharashtra and nobody even talks about it.

Putting UP in the bad list now, as they had 113 deaths today. They need to raise their testing again even if they are getting 4% on AG tests. May need to bring it down to under 2 or 3% like in Bihar and Gujarat with 200K AG tests (UP just does not have lab capacity in many districts for enough RT-PCR tests, even though they set up one lab in every one of the 75 districts; but some are small TruNat labs)



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by PKBasu »

The daily new case average over the past week has already surpassed the peak rate of new cases that any other country has reached (the only other country that came close was the US, but the US new case numbers started declining soon after they hit the 85K mark).
The past 3 days (Saturday, Sunday, Monday) saw a clear improvement relative to the previous 4, but this Monday's new cases were still quite a bit higher than last Monday's (7th September). So I wouldn't take the last 3 days as marking a definite improvement, but a tentative sign of hope.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Yes. Need to wait. Till we see that the positivity is not getting progressively worse in the 8-9 states who have not peaked (or are having second waves) and are not testing too well, I will stay cautious. Hopeful signs for the time being, though.

EDIT: Today wasn't a bad day at all. We finished with 91.1K, and the tests weren't as few as I thought either. We had 1176K tests and got a 7.75% positivity (dropping from 8.5 that it has been lately). But Tuesday was a calm day last week also, so let us see what happens tomorrow. I am still expecting a 98K to 100K tomorrow.

Jharkhand once again takes the honors, as they raised their testing from the 30K range last week to 60K today, and has been nicely dropping their case numbers ever since they did that mass 159K AG tests in just one day, two weeks ago. Jharkhand got +1702 for a 2.7% positivity. Their neighbor Chhattisgarh on the other hand continues to make us very nervous, as they tested just 21K and got 3450 cases at a horrible 16.4% positivity. These two states were always getting very similar number all along, till 2 weeks ago when Jharkhand decided to take care of business, and Chattisgarh decided to go stupid. It only takes 2 weeks to see results, just as expected.

Delhi is also testing well. 63K tests today. Another place that has been doing their job after months of screwing around and letting massive spread happen, is Puducherry. They have steadily gone up from 1500 tests to 5800 tests in just the last week. The results are showing already, too. It is that simple. Big and small states have all demonstrated it so clearly, but some states like Maharashtra and Chattisgarh show no sign of even noticing it.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR Update: 59,429,115 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,116,842... Expecting somewhere near 1200K tests reported by the states on Wednesday. Lab count: +10 to 1736



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

An interesting article from the US on Antigen testing data not getting into the databases... It is actually worse in the US than in India. I think we are missing at least 100K AG tests every day in India... US generally tests about 800K a day, and I think a much higher fraction of AG tests are missing in the data. ICMR gets at least the AG positives' data, but not even that happens in the US.
Lack of antigen test reporting leaves country ‘blind to the pandemic’ (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

jayakris wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:14 pm
But Tuesday was a calm day last week also, so let us see what happens tomorrow. I am still expecting a 98K to 100K tomorrow.
Well, we finished at 97.9K today (Wednesday), so pretty much par for the course. No unexpected rise, but no real flattening or anything either.

EDIT: Okay, it was not a bad day. The states reported 1233K tests which is the highest total so far. The positivity was 7.9%... So our 3-day average positivity has now dropped from 8.35 to 8.02 in the last 5 days of drops.

But I will remain nervous till Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh bring their positivity under 10% ... Both states are asking for serious trouble right now, doing under 20K tests each at 16% positivity and finding some 6K cases together. If they don't do something, we should expect 7500+ from these two states not too far in the future. See today's updates for state-wise case numbers and positivity, and you can easily see where trouble is brewing.

By the way, Gujarat makes no sense to me. They have been reporting over 70K tests for several weeks now, and getting positivity under 2% ... The case total just does not drop and keeps inching up by 10 or 15 every day. How come? That is impossible, in my opinion.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Meanwhile, Pune district had over +5000 cases again today. And that is the 4th time in the past week that Pune has gone over 5000 (went up to +5900 last week). That is a single district with 0.6 percent of India's population, getting 6% of India's daily additions, at 10 times the national average. It is about what UP gets in a state with 22 times the population of Pune district.

As of now, Pune has 244.5K people infected, out of 9.43 million population. That is 26K cases per million population, about 8 times India's average.

There is simply no place in the world with more infection than Pune, in my opinion. There are 95 countries with more population than Pune district, and not a single country has Pune's infection rate. The highest infection rate among those countries is in Chile (23K per million). Among some 120+ countries with less population than Pune, only 4 countries are worse, and they have much less population (Qatar with 2.8 million people have 46K/M, Bahrain with 1.7M population has 36K/M, French Guayana with 0.3 million has 32K/M, and Aruba with 0.1 million has 31K/million). There is just no place in the planet with anywhere near the infection intensity that Pune district has!.

Does anybody in India know? I doubt it....

And Pune has still not shown any hint of peaking or flattening or anything. The testing is still at positivity over 25% too, like it has always been. Every damn administrator and healthcare official in Pune district, starting with that Pawarful Bhagwan there, should hang their head in utter shame.

----------------

ICMR Update: 60,565,728 total tests ... Wednesday tests: 1,136,613... 60K more than yesterday... Let us see what is reported tomorrow... Lab count: 1751



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Looks like we won't have much of a rise today. Maybe a 1000 more, at most... EDIT: Actually a 1100 less today, as Assam was fewer by a 1000 due to Viswakarmapuja there. +96.8K today... So Rahul Gandhi will have to wait to tweet whatever he has been waiting to tweet to celebrate us reaching 100K :) ... he has been waiting for some 7-8 days now.

But Kerala is really making me a mad. Pinarayi, Shailaja and all the officials seem utterly clueless suddenly and are in no mood to get enough people tested. I have been complaining for a couple of weeks now (maybe more) that the tests were not going up at all. And the results are clearly showing, as Kerala went up to +4200 today at about 10% positivity. It is just going up and up and we will see 10K in Kerala pretty soon, at this rate. They are not increasing RT-PCR or AG. Either raise RTPCR to twice to get up to 60K or so tests at least, or increase AG to three times to get up to 80K or more total tests. Do something! Idiots. :damn:

I will give every other state some slack, because maybe the patients are not educated and won't do what is needed with an AG test regime. Kerala has no such excuse. Just procure AG test kits, make them available, and ask people to take tests at nearby places if they have any suspicion. The people will do that in Kerala, and the stupid Government doesn't have to babysit them like in most parts of India with less educated populations. This is terrible.

I never thought that places like Pune and Kerala would be where things would get screwed up this badly, and that places like Jharkhand would do such a magnificent job!
----

Update: About 1205K tests today too, and we got an 8.0% positivity with 96.8K cases, so the 3-day average positivity fell for a 6th day in a row now. The 7-day average of case additions was flat today, as we didn't have a rise. Nice. The doubling period for India is now up to 37 days. Keep your fingers crossed on the growth rate really slowing down, but i don' think we will really get a proper peak till Maharashtra, Kerala, Chattisgarh, MP and Odisha start testing more. No indication of that. Nobody has noticed how Jharkhand did what they did and got impressive results in just 2 to 3 weeks' time.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR update: 61,572,343 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,006,615... Not sure why the numbers is low suddenly. No idea what to expect tomorrow. Lab count: 1764



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We have a pretty good drop in daily addition today, because the case numbers stayed flat or dropped all over the country... And it is not just because Maharashtra and Karnataka had about 4K less cases than expected. Even without them, I think we have flat numbers or a minor drop elsewhere.

But all that can wait. Right now, the BJP government at the Centre needs to do something about BJP-run Karnataka. 179 deaths reported today in Karnataka. This is unacceptable. And the bloody idiots in Karnataka did even less testing today. Only 57K tests (at least 15K less than normal) for 15.6% positivity. If you test like that, it will show in death numbers less than a week later. They are about to see 200+ or 250+ deaths next week in Karnataka if they don't get their act together on testing. What bullshit is this, Mr. Yediyurappa? The man is walking around in Delhi, having chai with central ministers and all that. And what in the world are you doing, Mr. Modiji? Tell that clueless CM to get his posterior back to his state to get his job done, and stop letting people die like Karnataka is some Maharashtra or something. (Speaking of that, it is 440 deaths again in Maharashtra, and they did less testing at 88K, down 9K from yesterday, again getting 24.5% positivity).

How are all these ministers able to sleep at night? 619 deaths between these two states (about 55% of the total deaths in India). Go to hell, BJP, Shivsena, and all of the opposition parties like Congress, who are way too clueless to attack the ruling parties!

30282 cases (21656+8626) in MAH+KAR today, found from 145925 tests at 20.8 positivity. They have a combined 619 deaths in the two states. Meanwhile, UP with more population (204M) than these two states combined (114+64=178M) had nearly 1/5th the cases (6494) found from more tests, 155897, at a nice 4.2% positivity. Naturally UP, even with a 40% spike in deaths today, had only 98 deaths. Less than 1/6th of the deaths in those two Godforsaken states.

When will our politicians pay some attention to people dying, and take care of making the testing matter a real priority (in some clueless places like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha) etc? To be fair, we are doing a great job all over the country and the death rates are very good in most places... but two states (Maharashtra and Karnataka) are simply allowing 3 or 4 times as many people die than should. It is depressing to see so many people die.