Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

TN seems to have fallen again a bit, to 5584 today. :(

Puducherry has started testing in higher numbers, finally. 2500 tests today. Good. :(

Kerala (+3402) and Odisha (+3748) continue to ask for trouble, testing at 7 and 8% with half of it with AG. They both need 20K extra tests per day. How long do they need to understand what needs to be done. It has been several days of this, now. J&K is another place that was always testing very well, that i sletting the positivity go up near 7% now. Give it two weeks and the case numbers will go up to twice and then they can't even easily increase RT-PCR testing. The same mistakes keep on getting repeated from state to state.

Expecting +25K from Maharashtra today. They did 97K tests, it seems a 5% rise from last week. The cases rise at 10% from week to week. This is what they have always done. Increase the testing at half the rate of the increase of cases. So positivity keeps on rising, and nothing ever improves, deaths being the worst problem. Still not adding the 50K or 100K AG tests they need to add.

Maharashtra had appointed a committee early last month to "evaluate AG tests" (laughably, already several weeks after ICMR did their evaluation, approved three kit companies, and we had seen how it worked in Delhi, UP, etc). I complained then, saying it was too late. Now, a month later, they still have not evaluated AG tests and done the needful. And patients keep on dying within 24 hours of hospitalization in MAH. Why can't people see the monster standing right in front of them?



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

I don't think Maharashtra test numbers are correctly reported. Many private labs are doing antigen tests in big numbers and making good money. What may be happening is only the positive antigen tests are uploaded on the ICMR site. I myself got an antigen test done. That day there were 98 tests in my society and 6 positives.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

rajitghosh wrote:
Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:33 pm
I don't think Maharashtra test numbers are correctly reported. Many private labs are doing antigen tests in big numbers and making good money. What may be happening is only the positive antigen tests are uploaded on the ICMR site. I myself got an antigen test done. That day there were 98 tests in my society and 6 positives.
I think you are absolutely right. I had suspected this for a long time too. But at some point, the state needs to at least mention this or something. Guys like Rajesh Tope and the top official (Awate?) never talk about any of this. So we have no idea. The negatives from all these private labs' AG tests are almost surely not being reported to ICMR because the technicians will try to save time and ICMR can't do anything. I think this is the situation in the cities. The problem is really in the rural districts and small towns, where the case growth clearly shows that they are not doing AG tests. The state has to take leadership and order kits for districts like Latur, Parbhani, Dhule, Washim etc. Even Aurangabad and Osmanabad. All these places are growing in cases at twice the national rate. It cannot happen at this point in Maharashtra. The state needs to do something.

But, I do think that there is at least 30K AG tests done a day in Mumbai, Pune, Thane, Nagpur, Nashik etc which are not reported anywhere. My issue is that there is still an extra 50K to 75K tests that needs to be done elsewhere that the state is taking no steps to get done. So all these Sanglis and Sataras are showing massive case numbers and deaths.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

ICMR Update: 52,934,433 Total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,129,756... Not expecting any significant rise in the tests reported by the states Thursday. But we are again lagging a bit in testing. It needs to go up in several states. But I won't be concerned if Bihar and Gujarat did some 50K less, as long as states like PUN, CHG, MP and KER increased their testing. Lab count: 1686



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

From the blog of covid19india.org where the increase in the number of cases in Delhi is being discussed.

The Delhi Uptick



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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suresh wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:53 am
From the blog of covid19india.org where the increase in the number of cases in Delhi is being discussed.
The Delhi Uptick
Lots of details... I guess the conclusion is what we knew. That RT-PCR tests didn't increase enough, and AG tests went down too, to cause the problem. Delhi did 58K tests today, so Kejriwal and Sisodia are really getting it done right now. Can't complain.

Basically, they went to sleep in Delhi after the hard work earlier. Many many states are sleep-walking right now like that too. I am very concerned about Kerala, Odisha, MP, PUN, etc now. Even UP may be beginning to sleep-walk. Their 150K test limit needs to be increased to 175K or 200K tests.

At this point, procuring enough AG test kits and making them available in as many places (hospitals/clinics) as possible, is the only thing that is going to work in most of the country. No state is going to drastically improve their proactive contact-tracing or hot-spot monitoring anymore.

EDIT: And Karnataka does just 58K tests today. Down from 73K yesterday. WTF??? Ad they get 9.2K positives for about 17% positivity. They have been about as bad as Maharashtra and trying hard to imitate the successful schemes from MAH. Argh.

The only good news is that the stubborn TN guys are finally getting their wish. The numbers finally drop. Another -100 to +5584 today. Because it is from only RT-PCR tests (85K of them), the drop of numbers in TN is real and is the most reliable drop there is. They may truly get over this in due course of time. I just wish they hadn't delayed the drop this long, but all is good if it ends well. Death numbers in TN are down to 64, from a peak at around 122 or so last month.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Meanwhile, the news is only about Kangana Renaut. Shiv Sena, BJP, Congress... They are all so actively into this thing. Uddhav and S.Pawar had a long meeting about it, it seems. How nice! ... Central minister Ramadas Athawale found time to go visit Kangana. Meanwhile, 350 people would've died in Maharashtra today and none of these politicians (from all parties) seems to be the least bit bothered. For that matter, can the BJP call up their CM in Karnataka and ask him what hell is going on there with 129 deaths? Nope.

[EDIT: I was optimistic. It was 448 deaths in Maharashtra today. The highest they ever had]. EDIT2: It was 495 deaths actually.

I am one who actually liked Uddhav, Modiji, Kangana, and all these people. Right now, I hate almost everybody, I think :)



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

What an utter waste of time and resources.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Meanwhile, this



Maharashtra has absolutely no clue on their testing program. No idea about how many tests they do. They just take whatever number comes off the ICMR site and blindly publish it. Nobody is checking or monitoring anything anyway!



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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And Kerala is screwing up massively. Again tested just 40K, and got 3300 now. Three times the positivity they had kept for 5 months. Should be doing 100K tests. Health minister KK Shailaja even said last week that we might see 10K per day in Kerala at this rate. I have to agree, because the population density is very high and people are quite active in the state (though only in unproductive things :)). So, even Kerala has given up. And the CM Pinarayi Vijayan is trying to save his behind from the gold smuggling case. he is living up to his name (the Pinrayi in his name, that is the name of the place he is from, can actually be translated as "King of corpses"!)

Punjab had 78 deaths today, and the 2500 cases they are finding is clearly less than half of what they should be finding. Things are going really bad in Punjab, and the CM is trying to give "food for tests". Argh.

And the damn Monsoon won't end... I think basically that is the cause for the growth in the last few weeks in many places. The only hope is that infections may slow down bit after that.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by sameerph »

jayakris wrote:
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:36 pm
Meanwhile, the news is only about Kangana Renaut. Shiv Sena, BJP, Congress... They are all so actively into this thing. Uddhav and S.Pawar had a long meeting about it, it seems. How nice! ... Central minister Ramadas Athawale found time to go visit Kangana. Meanwhile, 350 people would've died in Maharashtra today and none of these politicians (from all parties) seems to be the least bit bothered. For that matter, can the BJP call up their CM in Karnataka and ask him what hell is going on there with 129 deaths? Nope.

[EDIT: I was optimistic. It was 448 deaths in Maharashtra today. The highest they ever had]. EDIT2: It was 495 deaths actually.

I am one who actually liked Uddhav, Modiji, Kangana, and all these people. Right now, I hate almost everybody, I think :)
Sometimes I feel all of them are together in instigating media to focus on all this Sushant-Riya and Kangana- Shiv Sena issues so that attention on real issues gets distracted.

I was not even looking at that Sushant-Riya issue earlier and now in last 15 days suddenly got interested in that ( with not much sports and so much of that news being hammered everyday on all channels). So, they are really being able to distract people from real issues. :D



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Good idea, sameer. Maybe we should all get distracted. The picure is pretty depressing, on the Covid front. I am tempted to read up on what these Mumbai celebrity stories are all about, too! Maybe I will follow the Kangana story. At least the lady is very pleasing to the eye :)

Meanwhile, we had 96.7K cases today. The tests reported by the states were only about 1140K today, and so our positivity has gone up to 8.5%. It is quickly becoming a serious problem. So many states are not testing enough, and the deaths are rising again after a brief period of 2-3 weeks of a flattening. We had 1200+ deaths today.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

Whenever you are depressed about Corona watch Ramdas Athawale's famous "Go Corona Corona go" video and you will feel refreshed. At least somebody is serious (pun intended) about Corona going.



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^Haha, thanks. Here goes





----

ICMR update: 54,097,975 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,163,542... Not enough. We need at least a 1250K now. Lab count: 1697



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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

It’s very interesting how “go corona” is a rally call in the USA while it means the opposite in India. Feels very odd when I hear the Indian chant of “Go Corona.” Nothing wrong; just gotten used to the other meaning.