Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Atithee wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 3:16 am I read South Korea has the highest case load, about 150k per day! Yikes….
They are way down now compared to 4 weeks ago when they went up to even +621K one day... That is in a country of about 50M people - which is 1 in every 8 people (edit: 1 in 80) in the country reporting newly sick on that day. Yikes, indeed. But their wave is way down now.

France, S.Korea, UK, Germany and Italy have reported the most cases per population (all above 250K per million) among all countries with population above 50M... Of course, it is because they test better than other larger countries, that is all. S.Korea managed to control it for a long time with high level of testing and informed behavior of the population, but they lost the war in the end too. Basically every country except China has ended up by now with Covid hitting at least 1/6th of the population (around 150K per million - some might have got it multiple times too). India reports 30K per million but we also probably had 5 times as many cases with many not being tested.

The lone warrior China that has surveillance of everybody in the country on probably an hourly basis with draconian controls, controlled it for a long time, but it seems like Covid still escaped. I think we are in for some huge numbers from China soon. May be even 1 million+ a day, if they will actually report it.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by SaniaFan »

You mean 1 in 80.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ Yes, 1 in 80... Fixed above. Thanks!... Considering the people who were sick for a few days, it was like 1 in every 15 or so people being sick at the same time from Covid at the peak a month ago in Korea. Yeek.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

17/4/2022 Sunday

DL - ??
HA - 191 (2.6%, Gurgaon 157, Faridabad 32) Numbers have gone down relative to yesterday
UP - ??
MH - 127 (0.6%)
MZ - 96 (15.7%) This state doesn't have waves!
KA - 54 (0.8%) TPR is slowly creeping up.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Well, all of a sudden, Kerala produces a 5-day count (Wenesday thru Sunday) of +940... That is for April 13-17... They are hellbent on messing up all of our smooth numbers and curves, I suppose.

So, here are the numbers for Sunday, the 17th: ANI 0, AP 5, ARP 0, ASM 0, BIH 5, CHD 2, CHG 0, DNHDD 0, DEL 517, Goa 2, GUJ 15, HAR 191, HP 2, J&K 12, JH 3, KAR 54, KER 940 (week's total), LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 2, MAH 127, MNP 6, MEG 1, MIZ 96, NAG 0, ODI 10, PUD 0, PUN 7, RAJ 9, SKM 0, TN 30, TEL 11, TPR 0, UK 8, UP 135, WB 28

That is a total of +1278, excluding Kerala's weekly total. That raises the average by +56 to 1028... There were two deaths (1 in UP, 1 in MIZ)..

But spreading out Kerala's +940 number into the previous 5 days (using the average day-to-day pattern in the previous three weeks for Wednesday thru Sunday), I get 228, 194, 199, 178 and 141 for Apr 13th thru 17... If we add those estimated KER numbers to the daily totals of this past week, we get

Apr 11 +697 -> average +6 to 1016
Apr 12 +1146 -> average +5 to 1021
Apr 13 +1248 -> average +24 to 1045
Apr 14 +1160 -> average +10 to 1055
Apr 15 +1182 -> average +4 to 1060
Apr 16 +1285 -> average +26 to 1086
Apr 17 +1419 -> average +76 to 1162

The 1010 on April 10th was our lowest average in 25 months, and it is clearly going up in the last two days thanks to the serious wave in the Delhi area.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ I had made a mistake in what I had posted earlier above. Actually KER had given the numbers till Apr 13th... So the +940 for Sunday was a 5-day total. Edited/corrected.

Meanwhile, the Centre has written to Kerala today, insisting that daily numbers be given. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 913940.cms
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

jayakris wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:08 pm Meanwhile, the Centre has written to Kerala today, insisting that daily numbers be given. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 913940.cms
The Centre has consistently been writing to states about testing etc. This is good. The only state that is getting a free ride is Mizoram (why?).
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

18/4/2022 Monday that was not meagre

DL - 501 (7.7%)
HA - 234 (3.2%, Gurgaon 198)
UP - 115
MH - 59
MZ - 61 (35.3%)
KA - 53

@outbreak_india reports:


805 #COVID19 cases are reported from NCR today

#Delhi 501
#Gurugram 198
#Noida 65
#Faridabad 21
#Ghaziabad 20
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Here are the numbers for Apr 18 Monday: ANI 0, AP 1, ARP 0, ASM 0, BIH 2, CHD 3, CHG 1, DNHDD 0, DEL 501, Goa 6, GUJ 13, HAR 234, HP 15, J&K 5, JH 3, KAR 53, KER (no report), LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 5, MAH 59, MNP 2, MEG 1, MIZ 99, NAG 0, ODI 13, PUD 0, PUN 29, RAJ 12, SKM 1, TN 25, TEL 20, TPR 1, UK 9, UP 115, WB 17

That is +1206 for the day (only about 400 from outside of the Delhi region and Kerala, which may have around 100+ cases)... The seven-day average moved up +73 to 1235... There was only 1 death reported (in UP)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Meanwhile, the Kerala health minister Ms. Veena George says the Centre is badmouthing Kerala, and that the daily numbers were being "emailed" to the Centre last week. Hello? She is accusing the Centre of lying.

Who is lying? Where are the numbers then? Went into somebody's junk folder? Huh? If you were emailing it to the Centre, why not tweet it out?
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

Why reports say, we have seen a 90% day on day increase in total cases as numbers jump to 2183?
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ No, that was just from Kerala reporting 5 days of 940 cases together in one day, as I explained above (just below Suresh's Sunday update). We only have the Delhi area wave going on. And that seems ominous and probably doubling in 3 to 5 days. Up to 800 cases a day now, from 400 about 4 days ago. We don't know when that wave will spread to other areas.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Here are the numbers for April 19 Tuesday: ANI 0, AP 5, ARP 0, ASM 2, BIH 1, CHD 1, CHG 2, DNHDD 0, DEL 632, Goa 2, GUJ 12, HAR 249, HP 14, J&K 9, JH 4, KAR 62, KER (488 for Mon/Tue), LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 10, MAH 137, MNP 3, MEG 3, MIZ 99, NAG 1, ODI 16, PUD 0, PUN 20, RAJ 23, SKM 0, TN 30, TEL 22, TPR 1, UK 12, UP 159, WB 23

That is a total of +1554 (excluding Kerala), with about 1000 of it from the Delhi capital region... But notice that the rest of India is up to around 500 (a slight increase from under 400 that it was last week)... So the wave is also beginning to spread... Some slight increase in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Mizoram etc.

Kerala gavce a 488 for two days today. Let us use the previous Monday/Tuesday split and assume 194 and 294 for the Kerala numbers on Monday and Tuesday.

That resets our Monday's total up from +1206 that I gave yesterday to +1400, and our the Tuesday total is +1848... So here is the progression over the last few days.

Apr 11 +697 -> average +6 to 1016
Apr 12 +1146 -> average +5 to 1021
Apr 13 +1248 -> average +24 to 1045
Apr 14 +1160 -> average +10 to 1055
Apr 15 +1182 -> average +4 to 1060
Apr 16 +1285 -> average +26 to 1086
Apr 17 +1419 -> average +76 to 1162
Apr 18 +1400 -> average +100 to 1263
Apr 19 +1848 -> average +100 to 1363

Pretty clear that we have a wave on. Even Kerala may have just started to up-tick again. Yikes. Watch out!!
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Delhi has 1009 cases on Wednesday, at 5.7% TPR. This is not good. Meanwhile, Dr. Gangakhedkar of ICMR says there will not be a 4th wave (Times of India)... Huh? How can he be so sure, when we are seeing this wave in Delhi looking just like all the previous waves? Why wouldn't it spread? If it can happen in Delhi, it can and will happen in Mumbai/ Pune/ Bangalore/ Chennai/ Kolkata, no?

The only thing I am slightly surprised about, is the delay in the waves starting in other cities. The Delhi rise has been on for nearly 10 days now. That is more delay from city to city than we have seen before. I expect that we will see numbers in other places within in 2 or 3 days.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

:Offtopic:
What do the forum members advise about the second booster shot? That is shot number 4 if one is planning to travel to India in May?
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