Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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suresh
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Big States 8/10/2021 Friday

KL - 10944 (from 95510 tests and TPR of 11.5%) I wish they would do more than 100K tests every day.
MH - 2620
TN - 1359
MZ - 1080
WB - 784
AP - 693
OR - 524
KA - 397


Total - 18401

We should go under 20K today thanks to a drop of almost 3000 from Kerala today. We had 23918 cases last Friday. So we should see a drop of around 500 in the seven day average of cases.

(I missed updates yesterday as I was busy all evening. Jay was updating earlier than usual. Thanks Jay.)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ Yeah, we are taking turns. I need to be away most of this morning here. Was free yesterday.

Kerala is dropping very much as expected; maybe a tad bit faster than I thought. Looks like most of next week will be under 10K in Kerala and under 19K or so in India. Nice!


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

We had +19.9K today, from 1460K tests at 1.36% positivity... 247 deaths (127 outside KER)... The seven-day average fell by a -576 to 20,704... Hopefully we will be under 20K in a couple of days.

Nothing troublesome going on anywhere, as even Mizoram seems to be on a downslope now. Both Kerala and Mizoram are under 13% in positivity, Manipur/Sikkim/Meghalaya have fallen under 5%, and every other state is at or below 2.5%... Actually, outside KER an MIZ, the TPR in India was just 0.58%, which is quite amazing. Good that we are still doing nearly 1.5 million tests a day.

Slightly better vaccinations today, as we did just around 8M shots. Still it is only about 34.5M for six days of this week. Won't be more than 45M this week. The PIB update says that 82M doses (whoa!) were with the states by this morning. Now there are some news reports that Bihar, Jharkhand, etc are planning vaccination melas at Navaratri pandals and all that. Maybe next week will be a big one?

--------------
ICMR Update: 581,312,481 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,269,291... Lab count: 2987


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Kumar wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:46 pm

As of sep 30th evening
Covishield 782.8 million (212.5 this month).
Covaxin 102.1 Million (23.6million)
Sputnik 0.955 (200k this month)

As of October 9th evening
Covishield. 832.3 Million( very close 50 million so far this month - 165 million approx)
Covaxin 108.9 million (6.8 million so far 21 million estimated)
Sputnik 1.008 million (46k)

So looks like we will be hard pressed to hit 200 million , but October 22nd magic may push us to that limit! If covaxin is meeting its promised capacity of 5.5 million, we may have surplus if it gets approved for 12 and over


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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More details about vaccine rollout for kids with guidelines for zyvid expected to be announced soon.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... k-7552367/

Chairman and Managing Director of Bharat Biotech International Ltd, Krishna Ella, had said on September 21 that the Paediatric Covaxin completed phase 2/3 trials with about 1,000 subjects and the data analysis was going

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/national/b ... 37990.html

Covaxin trials appears to include only 1000 kids. Considering our population and the fact that our case numbers except for Kerala was pretty low, not sure efficiency data will be there.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Kerala is dropping somewhat like a rock now. It was only 9,470 cases from 88,310 tests (24.4% AG tests) at a TPR of 10.72... That is 3747 fewer cases and 3.1% lower TPR than last Saturday. So KER contributed -535 to India's seven-day average today.

Poor vaccination today again. A bit over 6.5M, and that's all. This week will end at just about 41M total jabs. Pathetic.

But the PIB release says the state stocks have gone up to 85M doses. I'm continuing to be puzzled at what is going on with that. Are we planning a 65M "Navaratri Tika Mela" next week?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Chennai Corporation is focusing mostly on Sundays where they run multiple vaccination camps and do more than 100K vaccinations on Sunday. The rest of the week is left to the regular centres which vaccinate a much smaller number of people. I don't know what is going on elsewhere.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Kumar wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:52 pmSo looks like we will be hard pressed to hit 200 million , but October 22nd magic may push us to that limit! If covaxin is meeting its promised capacity of 5.5 million, we may have surplus if it gets approved for 12 and over
What October 22 magic? (You mean the approval of school kids' vaccination or something?)

Looks like we may start vaccinating 12 to 18 year olds in the last week of October? Actually, school kids are the easiest to vaccinate. Unlike other population, they are already gathered in large numbers in their schools, so if just schedule the vaccination times for each school, we can go at a fairly high speed with them.

I believe there are about 185M school kids in that age range Can we do their vaccinations in 6 or 7 weeks at 25 to 30M per week? Quite possible, and we do have the vaccine stocks for that. We may only need 30 to 35M per week for the others, seeing the lower current demand.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Big States 9/10/2021 Saturday

KL - 9470 (TPR continues to drop and let's hope for single digit numbers from Monday)
MH - 2486
TN -1344
MZ - 950
AP - 629
OR - 526
KA - 451

Total - 15856 (WB to come)

We are going to have around 18-19K cases today. We had 23189 cases last Saturday. So the seven day average will fall by around 600 largely fueled by the drop in Kerala.
Last edited by suresh on Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:15 pm What October 22 magic? (You mean the approval of school kids' vaccination or something?)
Amit Shah's birthday, I believe. :D I doubt that anything special is going to happen.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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^^^ Oh okay... No, I don't think they are planning anything on that. Haha. :) :)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:15 pm

I believe there are about 185M school kids in that age range Can we do their vaccinations in 6 or 7 weeks at 25 to 30M per week? Quite possible, and we do have the vaccine stocks for that. We may only need 30 to 35M per week for the others, seeing the lower current demand.
Unfortunately we don’t have stocks to vaccinate 25-30 Million kids every week. The best case is probably around 12 -15 million a week assuming covaxin gets approved for kids and they scale up to 55 million a month. Zydus is a three dose vaccine and they are expected to provide 10 million doses a month. Covishield is not even doing trials for kids at least to my knowledge. ,

The only other possibility is the trial for covavax (novavax), that is just getting started. This is a vaccine that seems to having huge issues getting approved in US and Europe nearly 6 months after the trials on adults. If it gets approved, this may be our best bet for the scale (as it is being manufactured by SII)


suresh wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:16 pm Amit Shah's birthday, I believe. :D I doubt that anything special is going to happen.
Suresh is correct. I forgot to put :p
Last edited by Kumar on Sat Oct 09, 2021 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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^^^ Oh, I see. Our vaccine stocks are mostly Covishield and we can't use Covishield for kids. We just don't have Covaxin stocks to do what I said :(


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

One of the most regular updates from India is by this gentleman doing the official Covid update for the state of Sikkim.



I find it really cool that they put up a youtube video every day, so punctually. But the most interesting thing is that he just may be the fastest speaking government official in the whole world. I have no idea what he is saying, and here and there some Hindi seems to come in (Or maybe it is all in Hindi and I can't even make out the words at the speed at which he goes)... But I do manage to find the TPR in his readout every day.

Challenge for you -- see if you can find where he says the Sikkim TPR for today :)


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Can you give a clue :p


By the way, interesting article about immune response after Covid infection.
https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 021-10-08/
In COVID-19 survivors, important components of the body's immune response called memory B cells continue to evolve and get stronger for at least several months, producing highly potent antibodies that can neutralize new variants of the virus, a new study has found. By comparison, vaccine-induced memory B cells are less robust, evolving for only a few weeks and never "learning" to protect against variants, researchers reported in a paper published on Thursday in Nature. C
This clearly shows the need for vaccinated people to be more active 1-2 months after vaccination instead of staying home and being highly cautious(and I am culpable of such a behavior as well). Such a cautious approach means that they are at higher risk of breakthrough infection and need for booster shot increases.

I think vaccine mandates may need to make exceptions for people with symptomatic infection. They probably do get additional benefit from vaccinations after infection, but that seems to be very slight advantage.the flip side to such an approach is that it would be difficult to enforce this policy and may take them down the slippery slope where people who are unvaccinated may start having Covid parties to avoid the vaccine.