Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

@jay @sin hombre Please get in touch with the scientists involved with indscicov.in -- I know some of them and they are very good and open to suggestion and criticisms. Who knows, they may implement some of your ideas. Their data and code is all open source and nothing is hidden. However, they do not have access to serological studies carried out by ICMR.

Thanks Suresh. Let me think through and see if I have specific suggestions. Like you said, data limitations will be the problem. My impression was that they have made an honest effort to put in pretty much everything they can find out there.

[jayakris]

AP seems to have got a handle on things? Over the last week, a rise from 497 (36K tests), 553 (19K), 605 (22K), 796 (24K), 813 (26K), in 5 days and then a drop to 793 (30K) and 704 (18K tests) in the last two days.

Today's positivity of 3.88% is in the right range. Could be 3%, but not 1 and 2 percent like earlier. That usually shows reckless adding of unnecessary contacts to the monitoring/quarantining list - which only makes follow-up activities and containment more difficult and less focused.

[jayakris]

This missed my attention earlier today. Patna had a sudden +109 today. Trouble brewing in Bihar too, finally?

Oh, this is a sad story - COVID-19: Man dies two days after marriage, several guests test positive (The Hindu, subscription may be needed)

95 people were from a wedding in the villages in Patna district (not in the city). The groom came from Gurugram, a software engineer, and was already showing Covid symptoms. Family pressure, so they did the marriage. He didn't make it, as he was late in getting to AIIMS. He was even cremated without a Covid test. The authorities checked the wedding attendees, and 15 were announced positive on Sunday and 80 more yesterday. What a sad story. How can so many people be so uninformed about everything?

[jayakris]

Bangalore dropped to +503 today. Phew. Just a temporary blip before a big jump, or something real?

Some details: Bengaluru’s recent spike in COVID-19 due to flaw in accounting cases? ... It seems the rise has been on for a few days before the numbers hit suddenly late last week. Some reporting portal changes etc played a part. I had suspected a "reconciliation" and said that in the updates. Hopefully things have stabilized. At least based on statements from authorities and some detailed follow-up by the press, I get the general feeling that Bengaluru has not lost control of the situation. I wish Hyderabad had a press that does its job... Oh well.

Another update from a couple of days ago - https://www.deccanherald.com/city/top-b ... 54598.html

a large number of cases had been discovered among roadside vendors, vegetable and fruit sellers in market spaces and police personnel

India really needs to pay attention, and stop veg/fruit sellers from sitting on the floor and keeping the veg/fruits on the floor. It is EVERYWHERE, and I have been saying this for a while. Nobody seems to pay attention to this detail... But in the absence of actual study data, my opinion is just an opinion... I only see that aspect as different in the case of veg/fruit sellers compared to other vendors, though. The fruits and veggies are always in those cardboard/plastic boxes or wicker-baskets, or just unfolded from gunny sacks and spread on the floor. Only rarely are they on table tops in veg/fruit markets. In addition, the handling of the baskets and everything by different people are all recent within the previous day or two (as these items are normally fresh, unlike other wares that are sold at the markets) We need to do something about all this.

Check out these google images I get for "fruit vegetable market bengaluru" - https://www.google.com/search?q=vegetab ... 76&bih=748

The viral particles are falling to the ground and on to all these vendors (what is on the fruits itself is not an issue, except for the vendor who keeps touching them, again).

EDIT: Then there is this - Athlete Geeta Kumari sells vegetables in streets to make ends meet, Jharkhand CM lends monetary support ... Glad she got help. And the picture shows her sitting on the road selling it. Hope she is safe and won't have to do that anymore!

[jayakris]

Here is a detailed report on the Kolkata situation. It seems only 15% of the cases are coming from the slums. The Kolkata Mun. Corp (KMC) says that they have been monitoring slums for a long time, and it seems nothing is happening. And the "rasagola tests" in high-rises that we were suspecting, are actually giving more positivity!! ... Weird, how this virus behaves in different places! - Slums account for 15% of Covid-19 cases in Kolkata: KMC report

[sameerph]

Are these positive really from the tests reported for that day - For instance, Maharashtra with 4878 from 23238 tests ( 21%), yesterday it was 5257 from only 19983 tests ( 26%), on the day before 5493 from 26628 tests ( 21%). So, Saturday and Monday appears same level, yesterday suddenly went up to 26%. Maybe there is some overlap in tests and positives.

[jayakris]

^^^ The numbers reported are from the tests done on the previous day (actually the tests results input by the labs on the previous day innto IMCMR's portal). So, what we saw yesterday were from tests done on Sunday, and some on Saturday too. The Sunday tests tend to be 20 to 40% fewer in numbers everywhere, but normally the positivity is high on the fewer tests done on Sunday (reported on Monday). I think the reason is that they tend to finish the more problematic areas from where a lot of samples come (typically at high positivity) and they are running at an extra day delay and all that. Some catching up happens with Saturday over-time and all that (I suppose) and that causes Monday numbers' positivity to be higher. But the rise to 26% was a little unusual. I have generally noticed 2 and 3% rise in positivity on results announced Monday with the tests usually done over the weekend.

[sameerph]

Yes,looks like there is a mismatch in that. But, overall Maharashtra positivity is still above 20% (highest in the country). I guess Mumbai also at similar level ( not sure).

It was okay to have that pecentage popularity when cases were coming mainly from containment zones like Dharavi and they were focussing on that. But, not with positives coming from all over Mumbai, this positivity % is worrying. Hope it is not an indication of many untested positives which will give a spike later.

[jayakris]

No need to worry, Sameer. Numbers as low as 893 cannot happen without a serious drop in numbers (and positivity) within Mumbai. I am pretty sure that it is from nearly 5K tests in Mumbai. With containment zones all very well defined, I think this is going in the right direction. They are focusing in quite a few other slum and semi-slum areas. Anyway, the BMP work-force is all much less rushed now, and there shouldn't be much of a hospital bed problem either. In another 5 or 6 days, discharges will be more than new cases too. I think the worst is over in Mumbai.

The good news is that the growth rate seriously slowed down today all over Maharashtra, even though test numbers did not go down.

[sameerph]

BMC reports says 903 positives for Mumbai. No mention from how many tests conducted for these positives but cummulative numbers are available and if one deducts cummulative of previous day, it comes to 4015 tests. ( around 22% positivity). Looks high but as you say me be good enough if there is a good stretegy behind this. Should they be testing more than just 4015 tests ( I read Mumbai has ability to do upto 10000 tests). So, why not just do more tests and bring the numbers down drastically and permnanatly.

[jayakris]

I was just looking for those numbers for you, sameer. Found those few updates of the cumulative test counts at BMC twiier page (https://twitter.com/mybmc). the counts were:

304,690 on the 25th
319,973 on the 28th (so about 5K per day) => 1365 positives => about 27%
324,666 on the 29th -> 4693 tests => 1247 positives => 26.6%
328,621 on the 30th -> 3955 tests => 903 positives => 22.8%

Basically, they are keeping the numbers there and testing who needs to be tested in the containment zones. Picking up about 4 contacts per person tested. That is actually just fine, if you have control of the areas. better to do that, and have your personnel monitor areasand follow up properly, than to send them around to every possible contact each patient may have had. Waste of time. Those contacts are probably mostly in areas that are being monitored anyway.

Test as needed. That is a phase the cities need to reach, after the earlier period when you test 20-30 contacts (for 3 to 4 percent positivity). Sensible contact-tracing. Hopefully Mumba is doing it.

[jayakris]

Here we ago... Another flare, just when I thought today was a good day. At midnight Himantabhai gives us the bad news. Guwahati with +380 ... 176 and 172 the previous two days. +613 in Assam... So, add another place where the problem has started (monsoons and serious flood also probably added to the trouble there)

It was still a good day though, with only +18,256 and a 3.21% growth... "I hope it won't rise above +19.5K" is what I said after seeing the ICMR test numbers. We were way below it. But for Guwahati, we would've stayed below 18K, as so many other places (AP, Bengaluru, Delhi, Mumbai, Madurai, etc) showed smaller numbers than I expected.

[jayakris]

ICMR testing update: 8,826,585 total ... Tuesday tests: 217,931 ... That is quite a bit lower than I wanted. I was looking for something in the 240-250K range. If the positivity is under 8 percent, I can live with it. That would be 17.5K. I suspect it won't be that low. Probably 19K+ on Wednesday. Lab update: +9 to 1056.

Wednesday starts with a -89 (to 6915) in the UNA category.

[sameerph]

I was just looking for those numbers for you, sameer. Found those few updates of the cumulative test counts at BMC twiier page (https://twitter.com/mybmc). the counts were:

304,690 on the 25th
319,973 on the 28th (so about 5K per day) => 1365 positives => about 27%
324,666 on the 29th -> 4693 tests => 1247 positives => 26.6%
328,621 on the 30th -> 3955 tests => 903 positives => 22.8%

Basically, they are keeping the numbers there and testing who needs to be tested in the containment zones. Picking up about 4 contacts per person tested. That is actually just fine, if you have control of the areas. better to do that, and have your personnel monitor areasand follow up properly, than to send them around to every possible contact each patient may have had. Waste of time. Those contacts are probably mostly in areas that are being monitored anyway.

Test as needed. That is a phase the cities need to reach, after the earlier period when you test 20-30 contacts (for 3 to 4 percent positivity). Sensible contact-tracing. Hopefully Mumba is doing it.

Thanks,Jay,

Yes, hope BMC is doing it. I know a close contact, a 28 year old boy who tested positive a few days back. He was travelling to office every day. He had fever for a few days and is now hospitalised for better monitering. They have a family of 6 staying together. 2-3 in the family also have milder symotoms but BMC did not advise tests for them and test them only if symptoms become severe.

That seems a prudent thing especially since the family is an educated one and will seek help is needed. May not happen so in slums where more monitering is needed.

But, also means overall positives may be at least 4-5 times the numbers announced as everyone is saying.

[jayakris]

Update on the railway Covid care coaches: 5000 plus coaches available. 960 coaches are parked in 5 states. 503 of them at 9 stations in DEL, 372 of them in 24 places in UP, and about 85 are parked in TEL, MP and AP stations

But only 40 patients in Delhi and 78 in UP are all who have been taken to these coaches. 118 patients total. And 72 have been discharged, so about 46 people are using those coaches. Hey, they can each get a whole railway coach for themselves

Really, who would've thought that we would only have this much of a problem with Covid in early July, seeing how thing looked three months ago?