Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Kumar wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:19 am Does china know something about covid that rest of the world does not know? It just seems like china is adopting a zero Covid policy against every logic possible?... Is it possible that it is an engineered lab escape and they know something about it that makes them hesitant to relax their zero covid policy... Their zero covid policy is not defendable by any common sense logic.
Kumar, I had written above about the situation in China. Just saw an article in BBC that seems to quite closely corroborate (with some details) what I was guessing above. It is a good read. Zero Covid holds danger for China's Xi (BBC)

Meanwhile, another bastion of zero-Covid strategy fell recently. Taiwan. They had a huge wave recently that went up to even 90K per day since April,that has now waned. But it left the country on par with the rest of the world with some 1/6th of the population getting Covid in the end (unofficially, 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 has got Covid in most countries; regardless of whatever the official reported numbers are). It was unimaginable with the tight testing and quarantining regime that Taiwan followed for 2 years that they would get a wave. But to be fair, the countries that delayed their big waves by 1 or 1.5 years did avoid a lot of deaths - due to vaccinations and general preparedness of doctors/hospitals. So Zero-Covid was a strategy that helped in the countries where it was feasible. But its time has come and gone.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Here are the counts for Sunday, July 10th: ANI 3, AP 312, ARP 11, ASM 86, BIH 421, CHD 61, CHG 110, DNHDD 0, DEL 433, Goa 108, GUJ 546, HAR 296, HP 71, J&K 88, JH 70, KAR 942, KER 2884, LDK 9, LKS 0, MP 130, MAH 2591, MNP 27, MEG 24, MIZ 105, NAG 3, ODI 576, PUD 129, PUN 151,RAJ 117, SKM 29, TN 2537, TEL 459, TPR 36, UK 46, UP 335, WB 2962...

That amounts to a +16,708 which raises the average by a +87 to 17,243... There were 26 deaths (18 KER, 4 WB, 2 DEL, 1 AP/HP)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Thanks, Jay. So essentially the party congress is the reason for the zero covid policy and once it is over, they will stop it. I agree zero covid was perfectly fine until the vaccination drive . Once u reach certain vaccinations percentage, zero covid makes no sense and is not practical.


Just curious ,do we have doctors or forum members with virology experience in our forum? Would be interesting to get their take to see if this virus is following normal progression ?

Looks like TN is starting to flatten.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

An article in NYT about the evolution and immune escape of covid virus. This is from March 2022. Would be interesting to see if there any new takes.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... uture.html
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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The case additions for Monday, July 11th were: ANI 14, AP 133, ARP 29, ASM 344, BIH 344, CHD 34, CHG 360, DNHDD 3, DEL 280, Goa 92, GUJ 511, HAR 269, HP 244, J&K 39, JH 129, KAR 673, KER 2532, LDK 3, LKS 0, MP 131, MAH 1189, MNP 45, MEG 11, MIZ 89, NAG 4, ODI 572, PUD 54, PUN 117, RAJ 122, SKM 38, TN 2448, TEL 448, TPR 22, UK 48, UP 210, WB 1915

That adds up to a national total of +13,496 that raises our average by +73 to 17,316... There were 20 deaths (3 in KER/WB, 2 in BIH/HAR/MAH/RAJ, 1 in CHG/HP/KAR/MP/PUN/SKM)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The case totals for Tuesday, July 12th were: ANI 8, AP 403, ARP 35, ASM 434, BIH 436, CHD 74, CHG 385, DNHDD 1, DEL 400, Goa 109, GUJ 577, HAR 318, HP 356, J&K 71, JH 162, KAR 891, KER 2211, LDK 5, LKS 0, MP 116, MAH 2435, MNP 59, MEG 18, MIZ 118, NAG 5, ODI 509, PUD 165, PUN 236, RAJ 134, SKM 69, TN 2280, TEL 562, TPR 112, UK 102, UP 363, WB 2659...

The sum total was a +16,818 which raised 7-day average by a +87 to 17,403... There were 45 deaths (17 KER, 13 MAH, 5 WB, 2 GUJ, and 1 each in BIH/CHG/DEL/JH/KAR/ODI/PUN/UP)... Still no sign of any death getting counted in TN.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The state-wise numbers for Wednesday, July 13th were: ANI 9, AP 407, ARP 45, ASM 590, BIH 565, CHD 72, CHG 386, DNHDD 4, DEL 490, Goa 130, GUJ 742, HAR 365, HP 358, J&K 140, JH 189, KAR 1231, KER 3545, LDK 10, LKS 0, MP 171, MAH 2575, MNP 70, MEG 21, MIZ 142, NAG 11, ODI 743, PUD 174, PUN 256, RAJ 187, SKM 68, TN 2269, TEL 527, TPR 176, UK 70, UP 421, WB 2979

That comes to a total of +20,138 today, raising our average by a +170 to 17,573... There were 38 deaths (16 KER, 10 MAH, 4 WB, 3 DEL, and 1 each in ASM/BIH/Goa/UK/UP). Where the hell are the TN deaths getting reported to, and who is dropping the ball on this?

This is all going with an expected pattern. AP, TEL, ODI (especially Odisha) is raging now, as TN is possibly beginning to flatten. WB started late as expected but is having an elongated wave. Now Assam and Tripura are catching fire. Totally as we expected. The previous waves also had this kind of time lag pattern... The only thing that surprised me a bit is that Gujarat caught fire only very late... They were among the early-risers in the earlier waves. Bihar was also a bit delayed, but it is raging there too.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The numbers for Thursday, July 14th were: ANI 9, AP 477, ARP 43, ASM 707, BIH 497, CHD 91, CHG 410, DNHDD 0, DEL 520, Goa 116, GUJ 737, HAR 511, HP 422, J&K 165, JH 190, KAR 1209, KER 3237, LDK 14, LKS 0, MP 159, MAH 2229, MNP 77, MEG 32, MIZ 105, NAG 12, ODI 804, PUD 221, PUN 244, RAJ 198, SKM 70, TN 2283, TEL 512, TPR 214, UK 99, UP 364, WB 3029

The national total was a +20,007 which raised our daily average by +176 to 17,748... There were 47 deaths (20 KER, 5 WB, 4 MAH, 3 PUN, 2 in ASM/BIH/HAR/UK, 1 in DEL/Goa/GUJ/HP/KAR/NAG/SKM)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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The case additions on Friday, July 15th were: ANI 15, AP 364, ARP 0, ASM 706, BIH 460, CHD 80, CHG 453, DNHDD 3, DEL 601, Goa 143, GUJ 822, HAR 403, HP 438, J&K 149, JH 166, KAR 977, KER 2979, LDK 13, LKS 0, MP 193, MAH 2371, MNP 89, MEG 33, MIZ 119, NAG 14, ODI 1043, PUD 213, PUN 305, RAJ 174, SKM 87, TN 2312, TEL 556, TPR 231, UK 115, UP 374, WB 3067

That yields a total of +20,068 that raises out weekly average of daily additions by +172 to 17,921... There were 56 deaths (27 in KER, 10 in MAH, 5 WB, 2 in GUJ/HP/UP and 1 in ASM/BIH/KAR/ODI/PUN/SKM/TN/UK)

The peak three days last week showed the wave rising around 250 per day, and the peak three days this week has shown around 175... The rise in the current wave has been slowing down for 4 weeks now, after it rose for 4 weeks since the week ending on May 22nd (when the daily average was the lowest at +2,084) and we saw the peak days showing rises of around 500-600 per day. The daily rises in the average has clearly slowed down and the national wave is about to go flat soon. I am going to expect the next week to be the peak of the current wave with our numbers going up to just around +21,000 per day. I think it will fall from there over probably 6 to 8 weeks till the first half of September. Not sure how low it would go but probably under +10K or even +5K per day... Then Onam and all kinds of October festivals will start a rise again. Just my hunch.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The numbers for Saturday, July 16th were: ANI 14, AP 536, ARP 75, ASM 672, BIH 388, CHD 88, CHG 505, DNHDD 2, DEL 491, Goa 91, GUJ 777, HAR 436, HP 428, J&K 224, JH 190, KAR 1374, KER 2871, LDK 14, LKS 0, MP 180, MAH 2382, MNP 94, MEG 35, MIZ 66, NAG 6, ODI 1065, PUD 211, PUN 264, RAJ 220, SKM 114, TN 2340, TEL 608, TPR 260, UK 118, UP 411, WB 2839

That all ends up in a national total of +20,839 which raises our average by a +376 to 18,296... There were 48 deaths (17 KER, 8 MAH, 6 WB, 3 KAR/WB, 2 ASM/DEL/JH and 1 BIH/GUJ/HP/PUD/UK)

A bigger rise of the wave than I expected today, thanks to Odisha and Chattisgarh.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The state-wise counts for Sunday, July 17th were: ANI 12, AP 493, ARP 14, ASM 149, BIH 417, CHD 85, CHG 203, DNHDD 0, DEL 498, Goa 92, GUJ 644, HAR 337, HP 125, J&K 203, JH 58, KAR 944, KER 2604, LDK 6, LKS 0, MP 218, MAH 2186, MNP 70, MEG 38, MIZ 57, NAG 5, ODI 872, PUD 87, PUN 248, RAJ 222, SKM 108, TN 2316, TEL 441, TPR 103, UK 62, UP 359, WB 2659

That sums up to a +17,240 which raises our daily average by +76 to 18,372... There were 52 deaths (29 in KER, 5 WB, 3 ASM/MAH/UP, and 1 each in CHG/DEL/KAR/MNP/MIZ/NAG/PUN/SKM/TN)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Thew news cases on Monday, July 18th were: ANI 10, AP 124, ARP 56, ASM 764, BIH 367, CHD 53, CHG 465, DNHDD 1, DEL 378, Goa 73, GUJ 596, HAR 406, HP 564, J&K 152, JH 118, KAR 1108, KER 2148, LDK 13, LKS 0, MP 190, MAH 1111, MNP 90, MEG 30, MIZ 57, NAG 10, ODI 816, PUD 111, PUN 227, RAJ 146, SKM 75, TN 2223, TEL 540, TPR 103, UK 117, UP 240, WB 1449

The sum total of it was a +14,931 that raised our weekly average of daily cases up by +205 to 18,577... There were 25 deaths (6 in WB, 5 KER, 3 ASM, 2 BIH/DEL/PUN, and 1 in CHG/Goa/J&K/ODI/RAJ)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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The state-reported counts on Tuesday, July 19th were: ANI 10, AP 465, ARP 54, ASM 755, BIH 324, CHD 60, CHG 595, DNHDD 1, DEL 585, Goa 82, GUJ 787, HAR 480, HP 616, J&K 333, JH 193, KAR 1151, KER 1857, LDK 22, LKS 0, MP 159, MAH 2279, MNP 90, MEG 74, MIZ 140, NAG 15, ODI 945, PUD 245, PUN 1941, RAJ 180, SKM 176, TN 2142, TEL 658, TPR 365, UK 148, UP 387, WB 2243

Nationally, that is a +20,809 that raises the average by +570 to 19,147... There were 40 deaths (11 in KER, 6 MAH/WB, 4 PUN, 3 ASM/SKM, 2 DEL, and 1 each in HAR/J&K/MNP/ODI/RAJ)

Crazy rise in Punjab. Not sure what the deal is, there. That, along with hefty numbers from HP, CHG,TPR, ODI etc caused a rise in the total, despite Kerala and Maharashtra dropping. The rises in various states are rather sharp even if there is a lot of lag from state to state, but the drops in their numbers are quite slow in coming. Places like Delhi, UP, HAR etc are just not showing much drops anymore and are stuck at some numbers at 1/4th or 1/5th of the peaks. That is why I tend to think that this wave may not go to much higher values, but may not drop much below 5K or 10K for quite a while (and may not go down to +2000 that we saw before this wave). Just my feeling at this time. Things may be stabilizing to some basic endemic infection counts that stick around.

EDIT/Update: Newspaper reports say that Punjab cleared their death backlog and added 2600 deaths. I have not seen the deaths added yet to the total by the ministry. Maybe that will get added in the wednesday total they will report on Wednesday morning. So a lot of the cases reported by Punjab are probably simply old cases that needed to be counted as Covid, based on the deaths. Punjab is getting only around 200 to 300 cases day. The actual case count for India on Tuesday was probably around 19K for a rise of about +320 in the average.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The totals for Wednesday, July 20th were: ANI 8, AP 489, ARP 54, ASM 830, BIH 469, CHD 98, CHG 633, DNHDD 0, DEL 686, Goa 135, GUJ 894, HAR 508, HP 583, J&K 434, JH 230, KAR 1478, KER 2667, LDK 22, LKS 0, MP 216, MAH 2325, MNP 98, MEG 102, MIZ 140, NAG 13, ODI 1122, PUD 212, PUN 457, RAJ 246, SKM 198, TN 2116, TEL 640, TPR 365, UK 189, UP 439, WB 2455

That yields +21,551 on aggregate, raising our weekly average of daily cases by a +202 to 19,349... There were 44 deaths (17 in KER, 7 MAH, 6 WB, 2 each in ASM/BIH/RAJ/UK and 1 in Goa/HAR/HP/J&K/SKM/UP)

It looks like West Bengal is finally flat or dropping. TN is dropping. GUJ is probably flattening. But ODI, CHG, ASM, HP, TPR etc are raging... A bit more to go to get to the peak of the wave but we are closing in on it.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The case additions on Thursday, June 21st were: ANI 8, AP 515, ARP 63, ASM 720, BIH 472, CHD 116, CHG 700, DNHDD 4, DEL 649, Goa 89, GUJ 816, HAR 555, HP 597, J&K 505, JH 214, KAR 1552, KER 2662, LDK 17, LKS 0, MP 312, MAH 2289, MNP 89, MEG 61, MIZ 138, NAG 14, ODI 1196, PUD 232, PUN 390, RAJ 250, SKM 214, TN 2093, TEL 765, TPR 382, UK 183, UP 431, WB 2486

That ends up nationally in +21,779 cases, raising the average by +253 to 19,602... There were 61 deaths (22 KER, 7 in CHG, 6 in MAH/WB, 3 HP, 2 in ASM/GUJ/MEG/MNP, and 1 each in BIH/DEL/Goa/KAR/MIZ/NAG/RAJ/TN/UP). The highest death count in this wave so far :(

The northern end is raging now -- as J&K and HP are both over +500 today.
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