Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

At say 0.25% CFR under repeated vaccinations, Is Covid sufficiently close to our traditional flu?

During the third wave in India, lots of people effectively did that by not testing if they had Covid-like symptoms that did not appear severe. However, one needs to keep an eye out for new variants that might be more severe than Omicron. I wouldn't let my guard down yet. At a personal level, I feel masks have come to stay. People might match colours with their attire and so on.

[arjun2761]

In the US, masking is way down especially after the federal travel mask mandate got struck down by a Trump appointed judge. I think most folks are treating it as a similar risk as the flu in the current population which is mostly vaccinated or otherwise immunized...

[jayakris]

^^^ Yes, the deaths from regular flu are much less from Covid... I was asking if the CFR is less, but realize that my question itself was irrelevant because Covid seems to be much more transmissible (with a lot more people getting sick from it than from the flu?) even if the CFR is similar... Anyway, yeah, it seems we still need to consider Covid as a much bigger danger than the flu, based on death numbers?

Well, this thread is not going anywhere soon, I am sure!

[jayakris]

Here are the numbers for Sunday, Apr 24: ANI 0, AP 3, ARP 0, ASM 2, BIH 2, CHD 9, CHG 2, DNHDD 0, DEL 1083, Goa 6, GUJ 12, HAR 417, HP 4, J&K 12, JH 2, KAR 60, KER 281, LDK 1, LKS 0, MP 6, MAH 144, MNP 2, MEG 0, MIZ 77, NAG 0, ODI 9, PUD 3, PUN 21, RAJ 15, SKM 0, TN 52, TEL 21, TPR 0, UK 12, UP 212, WB 41

Those are actually lower numbers than I expected. It is +2,511 for the day, which raised the average by +156 to 2,251... There were 5 deaths reported on Sunday (2 each in MAH and UP and 1 in DEL)... KER added 24 old deaths.

[prasen9]

If you want precise CFR numbers, here is a systematic review of the CFR in 2020

[jayakris]

Here are the numbers for Monday, April 25th: ANI 0, AP 0, ARP 0, ASM 0, BIH 2, CHD 9, CHG 6, DNHDD 0, DEL 1011, Goa 3, GUJ 12, HAR 470, HP 14, J&K 14, JH 4, KAR 64, KER 290, LDK 1, LKS 0, MP 4, MAH 84, MNP 3, MEG 1, MIZ 107, NAG 0, ODI 9, PUD 1, PUN 20, RAJ 30, SKM 0, TN 55, TEL 34, TPR 0, UK 11, UP 210, WB 19

That adds up to +2,488 for Monday, which raises the average by a +155 to 2,407... There were 6 deaths (4 in Punjab and 1 each in Delhi and Mizoram)... Kerala added +47 deaths and Assam added a big total of 1347 old deaths to the count.

Remember I had said several weeks ago that our active patients total was wrong by around 1350 because Assam was consistently showing a large number of non-recovered patients? It turns out that those are deaths that had not been accounted for. They added those as deaths to the count today

[jayakris]

Numbers for Tuesday, Apr 26: ANI 0, AP 4, ARP 0, ASM 3, BIH 7, CHD 15, CHG 7, DNHDD 0, DEL 1204, Goa 7, GUJ 19, HAR 517, HP 9, J&K 9, JH 2, KAR 85, KER 255, LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 13, MAH 153, MNP 2, MEG 0, MIZ 102, NAG 0, ODI 9, PUD 3, PUN 34, RAJ 50, SKM 1, TN 72, TEL 30, TPR 0, UK 16, UP 201, WB 36.

That adds up to +2,865 and raises the average by +145 to 2,552... Yet again, the wave shows no sign of accelerating or catching fire... There were 5 deaths (4 in MAH, 1 in DEL), and Kerala added 26 old ones to it.

[jayakris]

Numbers for Wednesday, Apr 27: ANI 0, AP 4, ARP 0, ASM 0, BIH 14, CHD 8, CHG 5, DNHDD 0, DEL 1367, Goa 14, GUJ 15, HAR 535, HP 6, J&K 8, JH 8, KAR 126, KER 341, LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 15, MAH 186, MNP 0, MEG 0, MIZ 164, NAG 0, ODI 10, PUD 0, PUN 36, RAJ 59, SKM 0, TN 77, TEL 49, TPR 1, UK 24, UP 258, WB 52

That adds up to +3,381 which takes our average up +140 to 2,692... Only 4 deaths (one each in DEL, HAR, MIZ, UP) and KER added 36 old deaths on appeal.

The total near Delhi is now in the 2000-2100 range, but the rise is fairly slow there, compared to what I expected. I hope it doesn't suddenly shoot up... If it does, it is an indication that such things could happen in other places too, where also the rise of the wave has been "rather sedate", like I keep saying. But the good thing is that there indeed seem to be very few deaths in this wave, compared to the case numbers. Whatever variant is spreading right now, does not seem to be too vicious on that matter.

[jayakris]

Numbers for Thursday, Apr 28: ANI 0, AP 5, ARP 0, ASM 0, BIH 2, CHD 11, CHG 6, DNHDD 0, DEL 1490, Goa 6, GUJ 14, HAR 580, HP 8, J&K 7, JH 1, KAR 154, KER 347, LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 29, MAH 165, MNP 3, MEG 2, MIZ 85, NAG 0, ODI 7, PUD 1, PUN 26, RAJ 35, SKM 1, TN 73, TEL 40, TPR 0, UK 13, UP 218, WB 34

The total for the day was +3,364... That raised the average by +129 to 2,820... There were 4 deaths (2 each in DEL and MAH) but KAR added 42 old ones and KER added 14 old ones.

[jayakris]

Cases for Friday, Apr 29: ANI 0, AP 8, ARP 0, ASM 2, BIH 7, CHD 10, CHG 4, DNHDD 0, DEL 1607, Goa 6, GUJ 17, HAR 624, HP 5, J&K 4, JH 1, KAR 133, KER 412, LDK 1, LKS 0, MP 34, MAH 148, MNP 0, MEG 0, MIZ 99, NAG 0, ODI 10, PUD 3, PUN 27, RAJ 89, SKM 1, TN 54, TEL 32, TPR 0, UK 21, UP 293, WB 52

That is +3,705 for the day, which raises the seven-day average by +171 to 2,992... This actually reminds me of the first wave, when the transmission from state to state was rather slow, and the wave took quite some time to rise up... There were 5 deaths (2 each in DEL and MAh and 1 in UP) and KER added 45 old cases.

Rajasthan is rising, finally. I am a bit surprised that Punjab still has not shown a rising wave. Maybe West Bengal just started moving up? Let us see. KAR and KER do have clear next wave starting.

[jayakris]

Numbers on Saturday, Apr 30 were: ANI 0, AP 4, ARP 0, ASM 1, BIH 6, CHD 9, CHG 5, DNHDD 0, DEL 1520, Goa 8, GUJ 18, HAR 490, HP 14, J&K 11, JH 6, KAR 126, KER 337, LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 46, MAH 155, MNP 0, MEG 0, MIZ 83, NAG 0, ODI 12, PUD 0, PUN 30, RAJ 70, SKM 0, TN 49, TEL 34, TPR 0, UK 8, UP 275, WB 55

The national total was +3,372... That means the "anemic rise" of the wave continues... The 7-day average was up only +106 to 3,098 on Saturday... And there were only 4 deaths (2 in KAR, 1 each in DEL and MAH), and KER added 36 old ones.

Glad to see that the death totals are not rising (even from the Delhi capital area with a lot of cases). At least the reported totals...

Cumulative totals at the end of the week - Total cases: 43,079,153... Active cases: 19,137... Recovered: 42,536,173... Deaths: 52,3843

[jayakris]

Here are the totals for Sunday, May 1: ANI 0, AP 12, ARP 0, ASM 0, BIH 5, CHD 9, CHG 6, DNHDD 0, DEL 1485, Goa 4, GUJ 18, HAR 479, HP 0, J&K 4, JH 4, KAR 104, KER 314, LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 31, MAH 169, MNP 0, MEG 3, MIZ 34, NAG 0, ODI 11, PUD 2, PUN 20, RAJ 27, SKM 1, TN 47, TEL 32, TPR 1, UK 9, UP 268, WB 53

That is a +3,152 that takes our one-week average up only +92 to 3190... There were 5 deaths (2 in Odisha and 1 each in Karnataka, UP, WB) and Kerala added 21 old ones.

I was expecting at least 4000 today, when we got around 2500 last Sunday. Well below it. This wave may even be flattening somewhat, right now. Maharashtra and Kerala are in a bit of a holding pattern and the Delhi area numbers are flattening too (now around 2200 and not hurrying to go much higher)... The death numbers are also pretty steady, well under 10 per day.

[suresh]

IIT Madras numbers are down (7 yesterday) as they must have finished testing each and every student.

[jayakris]

The totals for Monday, May 2: ANI 0, AP 4, ARP 3, ASM 0, BIH 5, CHD 9, CHG 9, DNHDD 0, DEL 1076, Goa 6, GUJ 16, HAR 439, HP 11, J&K 6, JH 6, KAR 111, KER 250, LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 23, MAH 92, MNP 1, MEG 0, MIZ 40, NAG 0, ODI 11, PUD 0, PUN 31, RAJ 89, SKM 0, TN 40, TEL 28, TPR 0, UK 18, UP 193, WB 27

So it was +2,544 for Monday, which is almost the same as last week... The seven-day average was up only a +8 to 3,198... There were 4 deaths (3 in Punjab, 1 in Maharashtra).

Again a surprise that nothing is going up like expected. Are we done with the Delhi area wave and it is going to go down now, and other places aren't going to pick up at all? That would be terrific, but can't say yet.

[jayakris]

The cases on Tuesday, May 3 are: ANI 0, AP 4, ARP 0, ASM 2, BIH 7, CHD 14, CHG 5, DNHDD 0, DEL 1414, Goa 9, GUJ 12, HAR 505, HP 10, J&K 19, JH 8, KAR 107, KER 296, LDK 0, LKS 0, MP 26, MAH 182, MNP 1, MEG 0, MIZ 63, NAG 0, ODI 7, PUD 4, PUN 27, RAJ 44, SKM 0, TN 39, TEL 36, TPR 1, UK 18, UP 331, WB 34

The total count was +3,225 for the day, and the 7-day average rose by only +51 to 3249... There were only 3 deaths (1 each in MAH, DEL and MIZ) and Kerala added 29 more old ones.