Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Atithee wrote: Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:15 pmAt this rate, we may go into a negative territory. :devil:
Haha, I was thinking exactly this. I mean, the drop rate needs to start slowing down at some point, if we are to level off at some 20K or something. But it is a straight line fall for 3 weeks now, at about 4000-4500 drop after each week in daily cases. From +45K to +29K. Six more weeks of this, and we will be almost zero or negative :) ... I have to assume that it will slow down and start flattening towards some 15K-to-25K number fairly soon.

But then again, if we keep testing near 1000K or more per day for a few more weeks, who knows... Maybe at a positivity below 2%, we may just take out the virus from many districts. So many districts currently get only less than 2 or 3 cases a day in India now.

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ICMR Update: 155,560,655 total tests... Monday tests: 993,665 ... Lab count: 2248 (Interesting that they continue to add some 4-5 new labs every day; Nice to see that the labs are still showing interest in applying and getting approved).
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Only +26.3K today, some 6K less than on last Tuesday... From about 1119K tests @ 2.35% positivity.. Holy cow. It continues to drop... The 7-day average dropped by another 830 again. Straight-line drop in case additions and no sign of flattening. Okay, let us go to the negative side, then! :)

This was despite the God-wants-no-part-in-owning country of the stupidest Government, Kerala, that found another +5200 at 9% positivity!

EDIT: I have added a bad area analysis today. Basically only Kerala is noticeably bad now. Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad - were all under +700 today, but two smaller towns in Kerala (Kottayam and Thrissur) had +758 and +712 respectively. Terrible job by Kerala authorities. No other way to put it.

Also, India was only 5th in new cases today with USA, BRA, TUR and RUS having more cases than us. We were 9th in deaths today with 383. USA had nearly 3000 deaths again. YIkes.

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ICMR Update: 156,646,280 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,085,625... Lab count: 2252
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

+28.4K today from about 1168K tests at 2.43% ... The deaths stayed low at 356 too... The 7-day average dropped by another 460 to 27.7K...

And then Maharashtra reduced their total by a whopping 10,218 cases. So we effectively had only 18.2K cases today! ... Apparently duplicates were found on "reconciliation"... The state officials are still learning how to work with Excel spreadsheets, I suppose. 9 months into the pandemic... Some day we might find that there was a multiplier of 3 somewhere and that they really only had 6 lakh cases and not 18 lakhs, for all we know :) ...

Meanwhile, Kerala still managed to get a 1500 above their 7-day average, at 10% positivity. The most clueless state of the most educated idiots.

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ICMR Update: 157,805,240 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,158,960... Lab count: 2257
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Some more drop today... +26.7K today from 1183K tests @ 2.26% ... Positivity dropped again... The 7-day average dropped -379... The deaths were 342... Things keep getting better and better and our active case total is now 30% of the peak numbers, down to just over 3 lakh people in India. Over 95% of those who got infected have recovered. Just under 1.5% passed away and about 3.10 percent are active now.

But we may be flattening a bit now. Maybe going to a minimum somewhere in the range of 20K to 25K per day in the next few weeks. If it drops more than that, I will be very happy!
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

India was only 7th in new cases today, in the world. USA at over 200K, BRA 68K, UK 36K, GER 31K, RUS 28.2K, TUR 27.5K are all ahead of India. Our death total at 342 was only the 9th highest, with USA having over 2000, BRA over 1000, and GER/ITA/MEX all above 670...

Again, how things have changed! I couldn't imagine 3 months ago that we would ever see ANY country with more cases than in India. Heck, only about 4 countries had more new cases than we had just in the Pune district at one time!....

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ICMR Update: 158,918,646 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,113,406... Lab count: 2259
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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+27.0K today, from about 1166K tests @ 2.31% .... 342 deaths. No drop from yesterday... But the 7-day average still dropped by -424 today...

The lost state called Kerala has the 7-day average rising slightly for 3-4 days now. They had a +5456 today, once again at 10% positivity... No other place is anywhere near Kerala in case growth rate now. Like, they are at about 4 times the national rate now. Still Pinarayi and Shailaja won't won't do anything about the horrible testing situation... I give up... And, the clueless Malayalees believe all the propaganda by the politicians, and they still went ahead and gave the anachronistic and dead-ideology party, CPM, a majority of seats in the local elections last week. Despite every investigative agency in the country pursuing cases against seemingly everybody in the Government. The people of my home state are that stupid.

By the way, we went past 10 million cases today :( :( ... But we had only the 6th most new cases and the 10th most deaths in the world.

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ICMR Update: 160,090,514 total tests... Friday tests: 1,171,868... lab count: 2264
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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+26.8K today from about 1169K tests @ 2.30%... The 7-day average dropped 503 more to 26.4K... 342 deaths again. How do we get the exact same death total for three days?

Kerala still managed to get a rise in their average for a 5th day (coming up from 4600 to 5075), with a +6300 today... That too, at 10.5% positivity, when even Maharashtra and West Bengal managed to stay under around 6%... Ridiculous, that almost 1/4th of India's cases now come from the piddly state, Kerala.

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ICMR Update: 161,198,195 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,107,681... Lab count: 2267
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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+24.6K today, from 1089K tests at our lowest positivity, 2.26% ... So we keep going. Despite Kerala adding 145 more to their average, India's 7-day average of daily additions dropped by another -388 to 26K .... It is really only Kerala that is slowing down the drop in numbers a bit. KER had another +5.7K @ 10.6% positivity.

Other than KER at 10.6%, Goa at 9.1% and MAH at 6.4%, every one of the 23 states with over 50 cases was under 5% positivity today... WB/CHG/HP were in the 4 to 5% range, RAJ/UK/MP were in the 3 to 4 range. The remaining 14 states (UP, BIH, TN, KAR, AP, TEL, GUJ, PUN, ODI, ASM, HAR, DEL, JH, J&K) were all under 2.0% ...

UP/BIH/AP/ASM were all under 1.0% positivity today, as they have been for a while.

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ICMR Update: 162,098,329 total tests... Sunday Tests: 900,134... Lab count: 2272
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Only +19.1K today; our lowest total in about 6 months, since June 30th... From about 899K tests at our best positivity of 2.13% too... Kerala, the only state not on a down-slope, still managed to get a 3400, to raise their 7-day average by a 100 more to 5300, but India's 7-day average fell by about 400 again to 25.6K ... 1/5th of that comes from the place with about 1/35th of India's population, Kerala.

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ICMR Update: 163,170,557 total tests ... Monday tests: 1,072,228 ... Lab count: 2272
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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+23.9K today... From about 1092K tests @ 2.19%... The 7-day average fell by a -339 to 25.2K and there were 329 deaths... West Bengal had a rather steep drop to just +1653 today... The deaths in WB also fell below 40, and the positivity was down to 4.1%... Even Maharashtra has fallen to 5.7% positivity... But Kerala still raised their 7-day average by an extra 120 with a +6049 found at 9.3% positivity... Things are certainly not getting better in KER, still... Otherwise, India would be under +20K already... But it is good news everywhere else. Just need God to help her own country to start getting a drop again.

Update: India was 5th in new cases and 10th in deaths today in the world. USA had over 8 times the cases (+199K) and 10 times the deaths (3376).

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ICMR Update: 164,268,721 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,098,164... Lab count: 2276
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

This new UK strain of Coronavirus is really causing serious concern in many places. The latest - 20 UK flyers found positive as Indian airports launch mass campaign to contain new Covid strain

Do we need to make a new thread for this, if it gets worse? There is almost a separate control scheme of travel restrictions, quarantine, and contact tracing for this variant-virus, as of now!
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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+24.7K from about 1139K tests at 2.17% today... The 7-day average dropped by 525, as Kerala did not have a raise in the average today (the rest of India is still going at a drop of around 500 per day in the average)... KER still got +6169 today, almost 1/4th of India's total, but it is not a rise over the 6185 they had last Wednesday...

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ICMR Update: 165,308,366 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,039,645... Lab count: 2281
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Thursday addition was only a +23.4K, from about 1142K tests at an even lower positivity of 2.06%... The 7-day average dropped yet again by a 473 to just 24.2K now. 337 deaths. We keep going down, down, down.... Even KER did not rise (but there is no real drop there).

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ICMR Update: 166,305,762... Thursday tests: 997,396... Lab count: 2281
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Even lower today... Only +22.4K from about 1073K tests @ 2.08%... Deaths were substantially lower at 251 too; but probably because it is a Christmas holiday... Tests were also a little bit less because of Christmas. The 7-day average daily addition dropped another 643 to 23.4K... Keep going, keep going!

Merry Christmas!

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ICMR Update: 167,159,289 total tests... Friday tests: 853,527... Lab count: 2284
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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We had our positivity drop below 2 for the first time today!... Only +18.6K cases today, from about 937K tests at 1.98% positivity. Deaths are below 300 again, at 280... We are probably missing some cases due to slightly reduced testing, owing to the Christmas holidays, but normally that would only raise the positivity. Good to see it drop even further. The 7-day average fell by about 1180 today to 22.4K

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ICMR Update: 168,102,657 total tests... Saturday tests: 943,368... 2284
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