Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

I think we need to adopt a strategy of testing only at hospitals and no more free testing centers. Don’t even track testing numbers otherwise. If people still want topay and get tested, that is fine. I think hospital testing will show more accurately the trends going forward.

Delhi’s graph is showing a slight decline and Maharashtra appears to be flattening as well Would be curious to see the positivity rate trend , that will confirm if the trend is correct. Todays numbers would be key
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The case additions for Tuesday, Jun 28th were: ANI 12, AP 172, ARP 1, ASM 68, BIH 211, CHD 96, CHG 186, DNHDD 3, DEL 874, Goa 168, GUJ 475, HAR 437, HP 120, J&K 68, JH 53, KAR 968, KER 2993, LDK 13, LKS 0, MP 69, MAH 3482, MNP 2, MEG 6, MIZ 64, NAG 0, ODI 113, PUD 44, PUN 194, RAJ 134, SKM 8, TN 1484, TEL 459, TPR 0, UK 56, UP 519, WB 954

That yields a national total of +14,487 and raises out weekly average of daily additions up +320 to 14,526... There were 31 deaths (12 in KER, 5 in MAH, 4 in DEL, 3 in Goa, 2 in BIH, and 1 each in KAR, MIZ, PUN, RAJ, UP)... Kerala is mostly reporting deaths in the recent few days on any day (not deaths from weeks ago), and have not reported any deaths on the day for well over a month now, so I will just add the Kerala counts to the daily total from now on.

Finally the eastern coastline in AP, Odisha also joins the wave. Bihar too. But the Delhi area is calming down again and MAH/KER are probably slowing down or flattening, like Kumar said.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The numbers for Wednesday, Jun 29th were: ANI 8, AP 172, ARP 0, ASM 73, BIH 178, CHD 85, CHG 126, DNHDD 4, DEL 1109, Goa 201, GUJ 529, HAR 620, HP 105, J&K 73, JH 44, KAR 1945, KER 4459, LDK 22, LKS 1, MP 93, MAH 3957, MNP 6, MEG 28, MIZ 39, NAG 0, ODI 161, PUD 80, PUN 223, RAJ 140, SKM 6, TN 1827, TEL 485, TPR 2, UK 48, UP 546, WB 1424

That sums up to 18,842 and raises our 7-day average up +791 to 15,317... There were 39 deaths (KER 17, MAH 7, UP 4, PUN 3, HAR/KAR/WB 2, DE/SKM 1)

That was a pretty solid rise today for the wave. Pretty big jump in KAR and WB...

[As I will be on a 5 day trip abroad to Europe tomorrow, I am unsure if or when the next updates will be, till the Tuesday/Wednesday]
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Actually, it is not a big jump. If i were to guess, we will see the 7 day average raise by only 100 tmw. Last Wednesday, numbers actually were abnormally low. We will again see a similar raise due to the portal glitch.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Maharashtra reported 3640 cases for Thursday. Definitely, they have flattened if not slowing down.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

There was drop in numbers today with seven day numbers also reducing by 37 to 15277

India reported 17070 cases with 23 deaths.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

India reported 17092 cases and 29 deaths for Friday July1st and our 7 days average increased by 165 to 15442. We will probably see a bigger jump in 7 day average tmw due to testing portal issues last Saturday
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

India reported 16103 cases and 31 deaths for Saturday , July 2nd, raising seven day average by 623 to 16065. This raise was expected as testing portals had some kinks last week resulting in low numbers.

TN numbers have doubled in past 7 days and their 7 day average is around 1900. Looks like Kerala has started to flatten, while delhi is showing downward trend. Maharashtra has flattened.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Here are the updates for the past week, which I couldn't post as I was traveling abroad. I was still downloading the numbers on time from the ministry website and keeping it though... So, adjusting the ministry totals for Mizoram and Tripura like done all along, here are the numbers:

June 30th Thursday: ANI 11, AP 194, ARP 4, ASM 0, BIH 186, CHD 69, CHG 167, DNHDD 5, DEL 865, Goa 184, GUJ 547, HAR 534, HP 96, J&K 83, JH 51, KAR 1046, KER 4083, LDK 7, LKS 0, MP 126, MAH 3640, MNP 4, MEG 14, MIZ 39, NAG 0, ODI 155, PUD 77, PUN 201, RAJ 112, SKM 5, TN 2069, TEL 468, TPR 2, UK 44, UP 437, WB 1524... A total of +17,049 which drops the average by a -46 to 15271... There were 23 deaths (15 KER, 3 MAH, 1 in CHG/MP/PUN/RAJ/UP)

July 1st, Friday: ANI 5, AP 223, ARP 0, ASM 138, BIH 179, CHD 70, CHG 129, DNHDD 4, DEL 813, Goa 125, GUJ 632, HAR 433, HP 104, J&K 94, JH 54, KAR 1073, KER 3904, LDK 11, LKS 0, MP 127, MAH 3249, MNP 4, MEG 13, MIZ 58, NAG 2, ODI 204, PUD 110, PUN 194, RAJ 89, SKM 8, TN 2385, TEL 462, TPR 4, UK 40, UP 430, WB 1739... A total of +17,109 which raises the average by +169 to 15,440... There were 29 deaths (15 KER, 4 MAH, 3 DEL, 2 PUN, 1 in BIH/CHG/GUJ/KAR/RAJ)

Jul 2nd, Saturday: ANI 5, AP 160, ARP 3, ASM 110, BIH 226, CHD 43, CHG 161, DNHDD 1, DEL 678, Goa 153, GUJ 580, HAR 412, HP 110, J&K 74, JH 62, KAR 975, KER 3599, LDK 35, LKS 3, MP 107, MAH 2971, MNP 7, MEG 29, MIZ 41, NAG 3, ODI 231, PUD 101, PUN 130, RAJ 133, SKM 11, TN 2533, TEL 516, TPR 4, UK 54, UP 372, WB 1499... A total of +16,132 which raises the average by a +630 to 16,071... There were 30 deaths (14 KER, 5 MAH, 3 WB, 2 in DEL/PUN/UP, 1 in KAR/MP)

Jul 3rd, Sunday: ANI 5, AP 289, ARP 3, ASM 74, BIH 218, CHD 71, CHG 91, DNHDD 4, DEL 648, Goa 93, GUJ 456, HAR 329, HP 43, J&K 76, JH 35, KAR 826, KER 3642, LDK 49, LKS 0, MP 108, MAH 2962, MNP 16, MEG 13, MIZ 15, NAG 0, ODI 346, PUD 97, PUN 117, RAJ 106, SKM 6, TN 2672, TEL 457, TPR 1, UK 29, UP 383, WB 1822... A total of +16,102 which drops the average by a -145 to 15,925... There were 25 deaths (9 KER, 6 MAH, 5 DEL, 3 WB, 1 in MEG, 1 MIZ)

Jul 4th, Monday: ANI 10, AP 119, ARP 18, ASM 161, BIH 162, CHD 34, CHG 132, DNHDD 3, DEL 420, Goa 75, GUJ 419, HAR 371, HP 133, J&K 58, JH 52, KAR 749, KER 3322, LDK 6, LKS 0, MP 108, MAH 1515, MNP 9, MEG 6, MIZ 48, NAG 4, ODI 245, PUD 9, PUN 126, RAJ 109, SKM 2, TN 2654, TEL 443, TPR 1, UK 32, UP 297, WB 1132... A total of +12,984 which raises the average by a +175 to 16,101... There were 19 deaths (3 MAH, 2 in KER/PUN/RAJ, 1 in BIH/DEL/Goa/GUJ/HAR/J&K/JH/KAR/MIZ/UP)

Jul 5th, Tuesday: ANI 10, AP 322, ARP 5, ASM 210, BIH 338, CHD 52, CHG 165, DNHDD 1, DEL 615, Goa 112, GUJ 572, HAR 349, HP 214, J&K 84, JH 78, KAR 839, KER 2603, LDK 8, LKS 0, MP 98, MAH 3098, MNP 17, MEG 5, MIZ 138, NAG 6, ODI 334, PUD 91, PUN 165, RAJ 111, SKM 8, TN 2662, TEL 552, TPR 13, UK 60, UP 304, WB 1973... A total of +16,212 which raises the average by a +246 to 16,347... There were 29 deaths (6 in KER/MAH, 3 in DEL/WB, 2 in Goa/KAR, 1 in HAR/MP/MIZ/PUN/RAJ/TN/UP)

Jul 6th, Wednesday: ANI 9, AP 308, ARP 29, ASM 196, BIH 309, CHD 57, CHG 220, DNHDD 3, DEL 600, Goa 148, GUJ 665, HAR 415, HP 144, J&K 113, JH 92, KAR 1127, KER 4113, LDK 12, LKS 1, MP 117, MAH 3142, MNP 22, MEG 14, MIZ 91, NAG 6, ODI 401, PUD 168, PUN 187, RAJ 164, SKM 20, TN 2743, TEL 563, TPR 7, UK 50, UP 343, WB 2352... A total of +18,951 which raises the average by a +16 to 16,363... There were 35 deaths (19 KER, 7 MAH, 3 UP, 1 in CHG/DEL/HAR/MP/SKM/UP)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ The trends can be seen nicely above. The Delhi/HAR/UP wave has gone down quite a bit. Almost sure that Maharashtra is on a downtrend too. Kerala and Karnataka are probably flattening. TN and WB are raging, while Gujarat is climbing up fast with Telangana right behind. The wave has just hit the areas east of West Bengal too, as Assam and Mizoram are picking up. The northeast is always the final frontier. though some pockets like AP and Odisha are a bit slow this time around. Bihar is going up. But the total for India is not rising too much. India is probably past the inflection point of the curve, but the peak is yet to come. Looks like it won't go much higher than 20K or 25K, as of now.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Does china know something about covid that rest of the world does not know? It just seems like china is adopting a zero Covid policy against every logic possible?

Is it possible that it is an engineered lab escape and they know something about it that makes them hesitant to relax their zero covid policy.

Their zero covid policy is not defendable by any common sense logic.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Kumar wrote: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:19 amTheir zero covid policy is not defendable by any common sense logic.
Heck, communism itself cannot be defended by any common sense logic, but people live with it in China and N.Korea. The main reason is this - China spends more on domestic security (which is largely surveillance of China's citizens) than on national defense. That is hard to believe, but it has been so for the last several years under Xi. It is now apparently even twice as much as defense spending! One in every 16 people in China is officially a communist party (CCP) member, but anecdotally at least one in five are people who will loyally do the work for the party when asked. That means pretty much every 2 or 3 households have a party "eye" in China. 500 million or so CCTVs (one for every 3 people), which are apparently about half of the CCTVs in the world!! That means, you cannot sneeze in China without being caught.

That is really the only reason why they could even go on a zero-Covid strategy.

It also needed the ability to have mass testing at the drop of a hat. That is, both testing kits and personnel and even military being available to do it. They did it out of fear at Wuhan, and found that they could completely stop people from moving out of their homes and could prevent the spread by closing down vast areas and testing quickly. You cannot get people to follow through without having the massive surveillance machinery available. They had it.

Because they knew they could do it, they did it that way and thought that they could put a lid on the virus. To a large extent, they did put a lid on it and prevented a lot of deaths.

The social costs have been unimaginable though. The Chinese people are really mad that they have hardly been able to live a life properly, or travel and meet relatives etc. There are students at my university whose parents died and they still have not been able to travel a year after the death to China. One student whose wife had a miscarriage in China, but he hasn't seen her in 2 years. People who haven't met relatives hardly 100 km away in 2 years. How sad is that? But the Chinese people cannot do anything about it.

The CCP and the government cannot go back on their strategy for fear of losing face - and losing face is what the CCP fears most. They have the argument that they saved lives and they are going to push that down the throats of people.

It is a flawed strategy for any society that would rather live free (and even die from a disease). Actually it is not even feasible as a strategy for any country but China to execute. Nobody else has the surveillance, and centrally-controlled Govt and party personnel to divert to testing and quarantining people. It is not a flawed strategy in a society where some ruling outfit has decided that freedom is of a lesser priority though. Is it wrong? It is up to everybody to make their own judgment.

But I don't think the Chinese Government knows anything more than anybody else. They underestimated how long this would go on, or I would imagine that they would not have gone for the zero-Covid strategy. They are still nervous that it could all go out of hand, but it seems like they have survived as of now. They are just praying that vaccines will get better and prevent waves from now on.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Here are the case counts for Thursday, July 7th: ANI 6, AP 322, ARP 43, ASM 273, BIH 343, CHD 55, CHG 251, DNHDD 2, DEL 579, Goa 135, GUJ 717, HAR 398, HP 189, J&K 118, JH 102, KAR 1053, KER 3661, LDK 4, LKS 0, MP 140, MAH 2678, MNP 22, MEG 22, MIZ 108, NAG 6, ODI 428, PUD 123, PUN 229, RAJ 154, SKM 29, TN 2765, TEL 592, TPR 6, UK 52, UP 321, WB 2889

The national total was a +18,778, raising our weekly average of daily cases up by +247 to 16,610... There were 38 deaths (16 KER, 8 MAH, 2 in PUN/UP/WB and 1 in ASM/BIH/CHG/DEL/HAR/MEG/RAJ/TN)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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The state-wise totals for July 8th, Friday were: ANI 6, AP 347, ARP 25, ASM 294, BIH 422, CHD 63, CHG 296, DNHDD 0, DEL 531, Goa 150, GUJ 636, HAR 353, HP 191, J&K 101, JH 132, KAR 1037, KER 3310, LDK 12, LKS 0, MP 115, MAH 2944, MNP 22, MEG 15, MIZ 61, NAG 7, ODI 470, PUD 194, PUN 208, RAJ 137, SKM 29, TN 2722, TEL 608, TPR 32, UK 47, UP 373, WB 2950

That yield a national total of a +18,861 which raises the average by a +250 to 16,860... There were 43 deaths (19 KER, 7 MAH, 3 DEL/WB, 2 ASM/UP, and 1 Goa/HP/KAR/NAG/PUN/SKM/UK)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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The numbers for Saturday, Jul 9th were: ANI 12, AP 285, ARP 24, ASM 211, BIH 408, CHD 49, CHG 258, DNHDD 0, DEL 544, Goa 111, GUJ 668, HAR 341, P 179, J&K 146, JH 125, KAR 989, KER 3186, LDK 6, LKS 0, MP 113, MAH 2760, MNP 23, MEG 15, MIZ 105, NAG 2, ODI 512, PUD 123, PUN 201, RAJ 150, SKM 59, TN 2671, TEL 528, TPR 36, UK 67, UP 382, WB 2968...

That sums up to a +18,209 that raises our weekly average of daily additions by +297 to 17,157... There were 42 deaths (24 KER, 5 MAH, 3 CHG/WB, 2 DEL and 1 AP/Goa/J&K/JH/SKM)

TN is definitely not reporting deaths from the current wave properly (by "proper", I only mean the usual Indian average of at least 1 death in 8 to 15 actual Covid deaths being counted, which applies to most states except Kerala that reports 1 in around 1.5 and Maharashtra and Delhi that reports 1 in 3 to 5, by my estimate). I think only a couple of deaths have been reported from TN in the current wave. That is way too few for some 30K or 40K cases in this wave in TN over 4 weeks. At least over 75 or 100 deaths must have happened in TN and I expected some 10 or so to be reported by now (around 1 in 7 or 1 in 10 was the TN's death-reporting rate earlier)... Maybe we will see some higher numbers next week.
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