Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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jayakris
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

rajitghosh wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:34 am I think real numbers are not getting reported. If I use my office as a case study, there are RAT kits available. Those who test positive go into self quarantine. Some of them do RT-PCR but the milder ones who don't need to see a doctor can get away without a RT-PCR. Also mandatory testing of all contacts is not happening any more. Lot of people who have mild symptoms don't even bother to get RAT done. RAT results don't get reported to the Government.
In general as cases are mild nobody is panicking. In fact nobody is even bothered. However, those who took the 2nd doese long ago and didn't take the 3rd dose or din't have covid in between are having more severe symptoms. I guess those would be the ones mostly showing up in the numbers.
I think this is very much the case. But the wave patterns do show us whether things are getting worse or better, so whatever numbers we get are still useful. I am considering that there are probably some 10 to 20 times as many cases happening out there (while it was probably 4 to 8 times as many in the previous waves), and that there are probably some 6 to 10 times as many deaths (which is probably the same as in the previous waves).


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

The country-wide case additions for Wednesday, June 22nd were: ANI 5, AP 86, ARP 2, ASM 33, BIH 126, CHD 36, CHG 131, DNHDD 0, DEL 928, Goa 156, GUJ 407, HAR 527, HP 40, J&K 40, JH 20, KAR 676, KER 4224, LDK 6, LKS 0, MP 49, MAH 3260, MNP 3, MEG 0, MIZ 22, NAG 0, ODI 45, PUD 18, PUN 134, RAJ 102, SKM 5, TN 771, TEL 434, TPR 4, UK 50, UP 678, WB 295

That yields a total of +13,307 which raises our average by +154 to 12,460... There were a larger number of deaths though - 17 deaths (4 in UP, 3 each in MAH and DEL, 2 each in PUN and WB, and 1 each in HAR, HP, J&K), to which KER added 20 old deaths :(

Considering Wednesdays tend to give the peak numbers, the rise in the wave was much less than I expected, since last Wenesday. I thought we would go near +15K today... May be we have gone past the inflection point of the current wave? Too early to say, but it is good to see that Maharashtra is not rising uncontrollably but rather probably flattening. Gujarat has joined the 400+ club.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Jay, u are absolutely right about testing numbers giving us a clue on the direction of the wave.

If I were to guess, we are probably on the higher end of the spectrum(20 times). Hope that states like Maharashtra and Delhi are actually flattening rather than temporary blip due to holidays or something like that. Todays numbers will confirm the trend for those states.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

(for Kumar via @outbreak_india on twitter)
23-June #Maharashtra #COVID19 update

New Cases: 5,218 🔺60%
Tested: 55,990 🔼112%
TPR: 9.32% / Y'Day 12.32%/ Weekly 9.66%

23-June #Delhi #COVID19 update

New Cases: 1,934 🔺108%
Tested: 23,879 🔼82%
TPR: 8.10% / Y'Day 7.08% / Weekly 8.02%


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

suresh wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:39 pm (for Kumar via @outbreak_india on twitter)
23-June #Maharashtra #COVID19 update

New Cases: 5,218 🔺60%
Tested: 55,990 🔼112%
TPR: 9.32% / Y'Day 12.32%/ Weekly 9.66%

23-June #Delhi #COVID19 update

New Cases: 1,934 🔺108%
Tested: 23,879 🔼82%
TPR: 8.10% / Y'Day 7.08% / Weekly 8.02%
Thanks, i still think Maharashtra rise may be slowing down. The test numbers almost doubled and if u add The numbers for two days it is just 300 more than numbers for the previous week. I guess we will have to wait. We will probably hit 16k tmw.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ We hit 17K, so no drastic reduction in the rising rate of the wave (but no huge jump either).

The case counts for Thursday, June 23rd were: ANI 6, AP 87, ARP 0, ASM 34, BIH 116, CHD 65, CHG 114, DNHDD 13, DEL 1934, Goa 151, GUJ 416, HAR 872, HP 47, J&K 38, JH 36, KAR 858, KER 3890, LDK 5, LKS 1, MP 68, MAH 5218, MNP 1, MEG 16, MIZ 20, NAG 1, ODI 73, PUD 42, PUN 113, RAJ 135, SKM 2, TN 1063, TEL 494, TPR 0, UK 56, UP 634, WB 745

That gives a total count of +17,370 and raises our weekly average of daily counts up by +647 to 13,107... There were 7 deaths (2 in Punjab and 1 each in CHG, HP, KAR, MAH and MIZ) with Kerala adding 7 old deaths too.

Chattisgarh is the latest state to join the party. West Bengal is speeding up. Maharashtra isn't exactly flattening. Gujarat and Telangana going strong. TN just crossed 1000. The wave is still in full swing. We will go up quite a bit more.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Looks like case numbers are increasing in Europe as well and America is still reporting 100k cases on average. I guess it is all driven by summer travel. The current wave in US started in late April and numbers have plateaued at 100k for almost 5- 6 weeks

We may see similar pattern here in India as well. As Jay predicted, this wave will probably take a very long time to subside.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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The state-wise case additions for Friday, June 24th were: ANI 5, AP 98, ARP 1, ASM 43, BIH 152, CHD 96, CHG 82, DNHDD 6, DEL 1447, Goa 149, GUJ 380, HAR 651, HP 48, J&K 54, JH 30, KAR 816, KER 3981, LDK 9, LKS 2, MP 95, MAH 4205, MNP 0, MEG 8, MIZ 35, NAG 1, ODI 61, PUD 42, PUN 150, RAJ 120, SKM 3, TN 1359, TEL 493, TPR 1, UK 40, UP 620, WB 657

That yields a national total of a +15,924 that raises our daily average up by +386 to 13,493... There were 9 deaths (3 in MAH, 2 in WB, and 1 each in BIH, DEL, PUN, RAJ) and Kerala added 11 more old deaths.

And here comes Bihar with a modest start... The TN numbers are looking ominous... But generally the numbers this week are showing slightly lower rises than last week which is good news.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Definitely the rise is there, but is slowing down. Is it trend or just a blip , we do not know.

We were lucky that Omicron happened when majority of our population had immunity from vaccine that was around 4-6 months old. This wave is probably happening with significant portion of population having waning immunity from vaccine 6+ months and prior waves like delta. As a result, the numbers will creep up much more slowly and may take very long to fall aka wave 1.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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^^^ Yes, a slow rise and fall is what it looks like. But it has been some strange up-and-down numbers this week, so I don't know what the current state of the wave is! We got a drop in the average on Saturday out of the blue (but the testing numbers for Friday that ICMR had in the morning were low too)

The state-wise totals for Saturday, June 25th were: ANI 7, AP 102, ARP 0, ASM 43, BIH 155, CHD 98, CHG 92, DNHDD 0, DEL 666, Goa 109, GUJ 419, HAR 510, HP 63, J&K 65, JH 53, KAR 253, KER 4098, LDK 5, LKS 0, MP 61, MAH 1728, MNP 3, MEG 11, MIZ 55, NAG 0, ODI 62, PUD 54, PUN 157, RAJ 122, SKM 2, TN 1382, TEL 496, TPR 0, UK 54, UP 579, WB 235

That sums up to a +11,720, which actually drops our 7-day average by -167 to 13,326... There were 15 deaths (6 in DEL, 4 in MAH, 2 in WB and 1 each in HP, J&K and Sikkim) to which KER added 10 earlier deaths.

Those are some strange numbers on Saturday. Why did Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Bengal suddenly drop that drastically?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 866_1.html

Looks like a glitch in portal causing the drop today. Tmw numbers will be high


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ Ok, that makes some sense. It was weird to see the numbers yesterday. But Karnataka seems to have still not managed to put in proper numbers today.

The totals for Sunday, June 26th were: ANI 5, AP 110, ARP 0, ASM 36, BIH 142, CHD 76, CHG 98, DNHDD 2, DEL 1891, Goa 112, GUJ 420, HAR 540, HP 37, J&K 56, JH 27, KAR 133, KER 3378, LDK 9, LKS 2, MP 47, MAH 6493, MNP 1, MEG 8, MIZ 9, NAG 1, ODI 68, PUD 42, PUN 168, RAJ 161, SKM 0, TN 1472, TEL 434, TPR 0, UP 30, UK 572, WB 493

That adds up to +17,119 in total, and raises our daily average by +616 to 13,942... There were 15 deaths (5 in MAH, 4 in DEL, 2 in Goa, 2 in PUN, 1 in J&K, 1 in WB) and KER added 6 earlier deaths.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

In Mumbai, when a kid got sick in the family, dcotors recommended parents to quarantine and monitor but recommended against testing saying it will show positive only. Even doctors in hospitals are not recommending active testing for low risk patients.

Is this the future for this disease? Especially if anti virals are not widely available and are not recommended for younger population, does testing serve a purpose?


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^ That is probably what the situation is. And it is smart to tell people to just assume that it is Covid (better than doing Antigen tests with 50% chance for a false negative, and wasting a day or a few hours waiting for a PCR test). Just quarantine for a few days, wear masks, and avoid long exposure with somebody showing Covid symptoms which are rather well-known now (especially the dry cough, I suppose). But whatever tests do get taken are still useful, for general area-wide trends and surveillance. Then warnings can be given so that people will listen to the doctor on being careful when he/she says that it could be Covid.

Meanwhile, the state-wise case counts for meager Monday, June 27th were: ANI 6, AP 43, ARP 1, ASM 60, BIH 133, CHD 52, CHG 125, DNHDD 5, DEL 628, Goa 130, GUJ 351, HAR 450, HP 94, J&K 67, JH 32, KAR 617, KER 3206, LDK 14, LKS 0, MP 74, MAH 2369, MNP 3, MEG 8, MIZ 41, NAG 1, ODI 69, PUD 9, PUN 129, RAJ 97, SKM 5, TN 1461, TEL 477, TPR 4, UK 32, UP 449, WB 551

That takes the total to a +11,757, raising the rolling average by a +264 to 14,206... There were 13 deaths (5 in MAH, 3 in PUN, 3 in DEL, 1 in MP, 1 in UK) and 13 more earlier ones added in Kerala.


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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Kumar wrote: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:47 am In Mumbai, when a kid got sick in the family, dcotors recommended parents to quarantine and monitor but recommended against testing saying it will show positive only. Even doctors in hospitals are not recommending active testing for low risk patients.

Is this the future for this disease? Especially if anti virals are not widely available and are not recommended for younger population, does testing serve a purpose?
Same thing happened with me in Bangalore. When my kid was sick, doctor said no need to test as the treatment will only be symptomatic. Just keep him isolated. I think with opening of Schools so many kids are falling sick that it may cause shortage of test kits. And also it seems to be very mild on kids. There may be some soft directive from govt also.