Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

MH - ?? (Mumbai 11317)

If you are having trouble finding the MAH numbers, and don't know this twitter page: https://twitter.com/SanjayJog7 , check there... He is generally the first to tweet the state bulletin out, and is extremely regular (has not missed a day in a long time!)

I expect that we will have around 240K cases today. This is most probably due to some reduced testing. TPR's don't seem to be going down as yet.

Actually a bit more today. Looks like +269.4K (Ladakh, Lakshadweep awaited), so it is slightly more than yesterday's total. The testing was less but by not way too much, thanks to KAR, UP and GUJ who refuse to reduce testing numbers... Around 2090K tests at 12.88% today... The TPR is still rising at a 0.6% per day, so it is not clear if we are past an inflection point (ie less rises in TPR)... But the seven-day average will rise only by around +18.5K today. It doesn't look like the rise in numbers will accelerate any more than 20K per day in this wave. How much more rises do we have? Not sure... KER, KAR, TN etc can rise a lot more. We will quite probably get near or go past 400K by sometime next week, I would assume.

[Kumar]

I was talking to friends and families in India. Out of three families that are showing covid symptoms, only one of them tested. Others are self isolating and not reporting. In fact a person who was asymptomatic during delta got covid this time . He had more symptoms this time around. So essentially your immunity with asymptomatic symptoms seems to be more limited.

So definitely numbers are way more. Probably only 30% cases are being reported. Still if we can manage to stave off 300k till sunday, that would be great.

[jayakris]

^^^ Hospitalization numbers are what we need. Kerala has given fairly reliable hospitalization numbers all along in their bulletins. Right now it has gone up to around 500 or so per day as the case numbers were in the 10K to 13K range 3-4 days ago. During the delta wave, for similar case numbers, they were in the 1000-1500 range per day, so it looks like about 40% hospitalization compared to Delta numbers. Now, assuming that Kerala is also skipping some 50% of the cases due to not much asymptomatic testing, we can take it as probably only 20 to 30% hospitalization rate with Omicron+Delta now, compared to Delta. Oxygen demand seems to be particularly low with Omicron (perhaps more because of the vaccination effect), anecdotally. This is all fairly good news. I think we will not go to the hospitalization numbers we had in the last wave. May get up to half or 2/3rds of those capacity numbers though. All guesswork for now.

But I just heard that the husband of a close cousin of my wife's, is in critical condition in Karnataka. He is a doctor in his 70s. He has heart and kidney issues, and had a severe reaction to the first dose of vaccine, that required hospitalization then. So he had not taken a second dose. Looks like that was a big mistake. I wish he had, because they are losing hope there now and he is on a ventilator ... So many such stories. What a wretched virus.

[jayakris]

We had +269.5K cases on Friday, from about 2092K tests at 12.88%... The seven-day average rose +18.3K to 211.7K... There were 218 deaths and KER added 179 old deaths to it.

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ICMR Update: 700,712,824 total tests... Friday tests: 1,613,740

[suresh]

MH - ?? (Mumbai 11317)

If you are having trouble finding the MAH numbers, and don't know this twitter page: https://twitter.com/SanjayJog7 , check there... He is generally the first to tweet the state bulletin out, and is extremely regular (has not missed a day in a long time!)

I expect that we will have around 240K cases today. This is most probably due to some reduced testing. TPR's don't seem to be going down as yet.

Actually a bit more today. Looks like +269.4K (Ladakh, Lakshadweep awaited), so it is slightly more than yesterday's total.

Thanks for the twitter link. I sleep by 9pm and hence if MH doesn't come by then, I give up and go to sleep. I made a totaling error yesterday (missed one state TN) and hence my prediction was off. I just add them on a unix terminal using bc. So I make mistakes when I am sleepy.

[Kumar]

.

But I just heard that the husband of a close cousin of my wife's, is in critical condition in Karnataka. He is a doctor in his 70s. He has heart and kidney issues, and had a severe reaction to the first dose of vaccine, that required hospitalization then. So he had not taken a second dose. Looks like that was a big mistake. I wish he had, because they are losing hope there now and he is on a ventilator ... So many such stories. What a wretched virus.

Jay, hope he recovers. They are saying omicron exacerbates the underlying conditions. For elderly people, common cold is never a mild illness.

We may be little fortunate that this wave started when people are not using as much air conditioning. If this had-started in April, we may be looking at huge numbers.

[jayakris]

^^^ Just heard that the good doctor passed away. Relentless, this virus ... They think he had Delta itself, and not Omicron, but that is a guess.

[suresh]

^^^ Just heard that the good doctor passed away. Relentless, this virus ... They think he had Delta itself, and not Omicron, but that is a guess.

RIP. I can't wait for the pandemic to end.

[suresh]

Top States 15/1/2022 Saturday

MH - ?? (Mumbai 10661, Pune 5705)
KA - 32793 (TPR 15%, Bangalore 22284)
TN - 23989 (TPR 16.7%)
DL - 20718 (TPR 30.6%)
WB - 19064 (TPR 29.5%)
KL - 17755 (TPR 26.9%)
UP - 15795
OR - 10856 (TPR 14.5%)
RJ - 9676 (TPR 21.5%)
GJ - 9177
HA - 9050 (TPR 18.4%)
PB - 6883
BR - 6325
MP - 5315
AP - 4955 (TPR 13.9%)
UK - 3848 (TPR 12.4%)
Goa - 3274 (TPR 38.2%)
J&K - 3251
AS - 2348 (TPR 7.8%)
TA - 1963
Chg - 1795 (TPR 26.7%)
HP - 1776
PY - 1213 (TPR 51,8%)
MZ - 842 (TPR 12.9%)

Total - 229027

I expect around 270K cases today. Time to sleep and MH numbers haven't arrived.

[Kumar]

^^^ Just heard that the good doctor passed away. Relentless, this virus ... They think he had Delta itself, and not Omicron, but that is a guess.

Sorry to hear that. Loss of smell and taste is more likely delta .

Maharashtra reported 42642 and they reported 3743 reconciliation. Can we reach 300k on Tuesday with numbers probably going down tmw and Monday?

Vaccination numbers for 15-17 kind of slowed down this week. After nearly 27 million the first week and we just hd 8 million this week. Theyestimate around 60-70 million kids in this age group.. i would expect another 15 million in the next few weeks. We also did around 4 million booster shots this week so far. The booster shots is limited by 9 month wait after second dose. So very likely that this numbers will stay low for another few weeks.

[jayakris]

We had +270.5K cases on Saturday, from about 1939K tests at 13.95% ... The TPR went up by over 1.00 today, to 13.95%... The lack of rise in case numbers is generally due to lower testing rates... The seven day average rose by +15.9K to 227.6K... There were 226 deaths, to which KER added 89 old ones.

I am hoping to see no more than 325K by TUE/WED next week.

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ICMR Update: 702,448,838 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,665,404

[suresh]

Top States 16/1/2022 Sunday

MH - 41327 (TPR 19.6%, Mumbai 7895) Mumbai numbers are down though the state number remain > 40K
KA - 34047 (TPR 19.3%, Bangalore 21017)
TN - 23975 (TPR 17%, Chennai 8987 at TPR 30%) Chennai has plateaued but TPR has gone from 22 to 30%
KL - 18123
UP - 17185
WB - 14938 (TPR 27.7%)
GJ - 10150
RJ- 9669 (TPR 13.9%)
HA - 8900 (TPR 18.8%)
MP - 6380
BR - 5410 (TPR 3.5%)
AP - 4570
J&K - 3499 (TPR 4.7%)
Goa - 3232
UK - 2682 (TPR 13.7%)
TA - 2047 (TPR 3.7%)
Chg - 1358 (TPR 22.5%)
PY - 1160 (TPR 43.7%)
MZ - 875 (TPR 18.2%)

Total - 209527 (Delhi numbers are yet to come)

I expect around 265K cases today.

[Kumar]

I am hearing about people with symptoms left and right from Chennai, with very few getting tested
Hospitalization will start becoming key as case numbers will start going down or plateau as people are not getting tested. Does TN or chennai have hospitalization stats?

We will have to wait for TPR to plateau, before we can start paying attention to Case numbers. Based on the TPR , WB, Delhi and Maharashtra maybe the states that appear to be at l east flattening. Will have to wait for few more days before we can confirm.

India vaccination stats . Would be really surprised if India did it faster than china though.

India has administered a total of 156.76 crore vaccinations, making it the fastest vaccination drive in the world, with 93% of the 18+ population jabbed with the first dose. Twelve states and Union Territories achieved 100% of first dose coverage, and around seven states and UTs have gained 95% of both amounts administered. According to The Times of India, around 65 crore adult beneficiaries have been given both doses.

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https://thelogicalindian.com/trending/i ... tion-33307


93% of adult population receiving one dose is amazing and around 70% of adults fully vaccinated . I was expecting only around 80%. Our vaccination rates for adult population is probably as good as some of the western countries.

[suresh]

I am hearing about people with symptoms left and right from Chennai, with very few getting tested
Hospitalization will start becoming key as case numbers will start going down or plateau as people are not getting tested. Does TN or chennai have hospitalization stats?

Yes, somebody is tracking hospitalization data. See here.

[jayakris]

We will have to wait for TPR to plateau, before we can start paying attention to Case numbers. Based on the TPR , WB, Delhi and Maharashtra maybe the states that appear to be at l east flattening. Will have to wait for few more days before we can confirm.

The TPR did not go up today, it seems. What I have for Sunday is +259K cases (ladakh, Lakshadweep and DNHDD to come; and not yet cross-checked with Ministry totals) from about 1863K tests at 13.91% ... Are things beginning to plateau on TPR too? Will wait till Wednesday to say anything.