Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

We might touch 160K cases today.

Good call. Almost there. It was +159.5K on Saturday, from about 1887K tests at 8.46%... The TPR being high is unavoidable, and I think it is okay, as long as it is under 20 or 25% this time around... Anyway, the seven-day average went up by +18.8K to 91.1K... A slight slow down in the rise already? Too early to tell... Will know by around Tue/Wed this coming week... There were 121 deaths, to which KER added 209 old ones.

See the statewise numbers ... Kolkata needs to test better. Though I am no longer looking for 4% TPR or anything, it won't do if it is as high as 30 or 40%. Need to do 100K tests a day now in West Bengal.

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ICMR Update: 690,034,525 total tests... Saturday tests: 1,563,566... Lab count: 3128

[Atithee]

How long will Kerala add old deaths?

[jayakris]

^^^ No idea. There seems to be a lot of people who want the Government's 50K money. They will keep adding, I suppose. Why this isn't happening in other states, is what is puzzling to me!

[Atithee]

^^^Yeah, I’m puzzled by that too.

[suresh]

Top States 9/1/2022 Sunday


MH - 44388 (Mumbai 19474, Pune 4029)
WB - 24287 (TPR 33.9%)
DL - 22751 (TPR 23.5%)
TN - 12895 (TPR 8.7%, Chennai 6186) 68% of the cases are from four adjacent districts KTCC (Kancheepuram, Thiruvallvur, Chennai and Chengalpet)
KA - 12000 (TPR 6.3%)
UP - 7680
GJ - 6275
KL - 6238 (TPR 11.5%)
RJ - 5660
HA - 5166
OR - 4714
CH - 2502
Goa - 1922 (TPR 24.8%)
UK - 1413 (TPR 7.8%)
AP - 1257
MZ - 903 (TPR 15.9%)
J&K - 687
CH - 666

Total - 161404

My estimate is that we will have 180K cases today. Will we touch 200K as per my prediction tomorrow? It is meagre Monday though.

[Kumar]

I think we may just fall short becoz of Meagre Monday. Hopefully the case numbers for Monday is lower than Sunday. If it is more than Sunday numbers, we may hit 400k before the end of next week.


There is section of scientists in UK who believe that PCR testing be replaced with rapid test. What are all your thoughts?

[suresh]

There is section of scientists in UK who believe that PCR testing be replaced with rapid test. What are all your thoughts?

I think one can now make a good case for doing RATs especially for symptomatic people. It appears that they work better if you do a throat and nose swab for the test. We can do a lot more testing in that manner and not be restricted by time and other limitations of RT-PCR tests (whose results come in less than 24h these days in India). Imagine if Tamil Nadu added 100K RATs per day to the existing 150K RT-PCR tests being done.

[jayakris]

It was +180K on Sunday from about 1840K tests at 9.79%... The seven-day average went up +20.9K to 112K... The rise of the curve seems to be not blowing up past 20Kper day... Will we get an inflection point soon enough? We will see in the net 2-3 days... The deaths are rising though in the first places to be hit by Omicron, like Delhi and Punjab with 17 and 10 deaths respectively... Bad omen... Maharashtra deaths are probably coming soon ... There were 140 deaths on Sunday.

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ICMR Update: 691,575,352 total tests... Sunday tests: 1,352,717

[Kumar]

I think one can now make a good case for doing RATs especially for symptomatic people. It appears that they work better if you do a throat and nose swab for the test. We can do a lot more testing in that manner and not be restricted by time and other limitations of RT-PCR tests (whose results come in less than 24h these days in India). Imagine if Tamil Nadu added 100K RATs per day to the existing 150K RT-PCR tests being done.

Lot of those in home kits come with one swab and not sure u can put two swabs in the test strip. So u have to choose either nose or throat. Unless u want to swab both those places with the same swab.

But we need to start changing the way we test. RT-PCR test has almost lost its value with widespread vaccine availability and quicker incubation for omicron. We will have to adapt to changing conditions

[suresh]

Top States 10/1/2021 Meagre Monday


MH - 33470 (Mumbai 13648)
WB - 19286 (TPR 33.3%)
DL - 19166 (TPR 25%)
TN - 13990 (TPR 10.3%, Chennai 6190)
KA - 11698 (TPR 7.8%) CM Bommai tests positive today.
UP - 8334
GJ - 6097
KL - 5797 (TPR 12.7%)
HA - 5736 (TPR 14.9%)
OR - 4829
BR - 4737 CM Nitish Kumar tests positive today
PB - 3969
AS - 2198 (TPR 4.5%)
TA - 1825
Goa - 1592 (TPR 27.4%)
UK - 1292 (TPR 7.6%)
HP 1200
AP - 984
CH - 967 (TPR 23.1%)
J&K - 706
MZ - 518 (TPR 19.2%)

Total - 143564

So we will have 160K cases today thanks to meagre Monday, it appears. We will cross 200K tomorrow.

[suresh]

@Kumar As anticipated revised guidelines from ICMR.

[Kumar]

Some numbers for context from Newyork

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronav ... w/3487965/

Vaccine effectiveness remained exceptionally high among the fully vaccinated through omicron's December tear, with just 4.59 fully vaccinated New Yorkers of 100,000 ending up hospitalized for COVID the week of Dec. 27.

That's up from 1.17 the first week of December, but still almost 13 times lower than the hospitalization rate per 100,000 unvaccinated New Yorkers (58.27). For the latter group, the rate of COVID hospitalization per 100,000 more than tripled over the course of Decemb

er.

[jayakris]

^^^ That is really good news. Hope the Indian numbers will show the same pattern.

We had +166,665 on "meager Monday", from about 1654K tests at 10.08%... The seven-day average rose another +18.5K to 130.5K... The deaths are coming from every state now, though the total isn't blowing up due to KER and MAH still dropping in their death numbers (and Omicron deaths are probably not yet in their totals). There were 131 deaths on Monday, but they were from all over the country (see the update)

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ICMR Update: 693,155,280 total tests... Monday tests: 1,579,928

[suresh]

Top States 11/1/2022 Tuesday

We might cross 200K cases today.

MH - 34424 (Mumbai 11647)
DL - 21259 (TPR 25.7%)
WB - 21098 (TPR 32.4%)
TN - 15379 (TPR 11.3%)
KA - 14473 (TPR 10.3%)
KL - 9066 (TPR 14.2%, TPR ~18% in KTCC districts, Chennai 6484)
GJ - 7476
OR - 7071
RJ - 6366
BR - 5908
HA - 5746 (TPR 13.9%)
PB - 4593 (TPR 18.6%)
AS - 2837 (TPR 5.7%)
Goa - 2476 (TPR 30.4%)
UK - 2197 (TPR 9.7%)
AP - 1831
MZ - 1513 (TPR 17.9%)
J&K - 1148
Ch - 801 (TPR 23.2%)

Total - 165662

We will have around 190K cases today. Not hitting 200K today with Maharashtra probably having peaked a few days ago.

[Kumar]

I hope and pray that is true, More likely that we have stopped testing asymptomatic cases. If that is the scenario, the case numbers will start increasing again.