Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[Kumar]

I think a smaller wave now may actually help stave off a bigger wave later. The longer we go between waves, more nervous I would be. Smaller wave may actually enhance the immunity of vaccinated crowd

[jayakris]

Saw a report that India will resume their vaccine export. Would u all be comfortable with India exporting 5-10% of their monthly supply?

I would. In fact, I will be fine even if we export 20%... 40M or 50M less per month (out of an expected 250M-300M per month in the coming months) is only going to delay our vaccination plans by say 2 weeks by January, but it is a lot of vaccines for many countries that are dying to get it. We should send it to places where we would like to see the waves stop quickly - because we have a lot of exchanges and travel from/to those countries. Bangladesh first, and then Sri Lanka, Malysia, Nigeria, Nepal, etc, and any middle eastern place that really wants vaccines from us. We don't want mutants to happen in such places and then quickly hit India!

[jayakris]

I think a smaller wave now may actually help stave off a bigger wave later. The longer we go between waves, more nervous I would be. Smaller wave may actually enhance the immunity of vaccinated crowd

I think you are right. If the smaller waves happen and die out in various places, that is not a bad thing at all. That is pretty much the endemic phase of the disease - moving from the pandemic phase, I believe.

[jayakris]

We should send it to places where we would like to see the waves stop quickly - because we have a lot of exchanges and travel from/to those countries. Bangladesh first, and then Sri Lanka, Malysia, Nigeria, Nepal, etc, and any middle eastern place that really wants vaccines from us. We don't want mutants to happen in such places and then quickly hit India!

Oh, and give some vaccines to Pakistan, with the recommendation to at least vaccinate all the terrorists they intend to send to India from there and Afghanistan ...

[jayakris]

It is +15,768 today in Kerala today, from 105,513 tests at 14.94% the lowest TPR in some 35 days or so... It is 38K RATs, so about 6800 more good tests and 6100 fewer AG tests, for 90 fewer cases than on last Tuesday, so the TPR dropped from 15.12 to 14.94 and the adjusted TPR dropped from 19.12 to 18.45... I'm expecting a similar pattern this week like last week. As the results of a lot of RT-PCR tests from Monday will come only into the Wednesday and Thursday totals, it should go up to 17K+ and maybe 20K+ in the next two days, in a similar weekly pattern. But it should be at least a small drop week-to-week.

[suresh]

Big States 21/9/2021 Tuesday

KL - 15768 -- Good to see more than 100K tests for Kerala.
MH - 3131
MZ - 1731 -- Mizoram overtakes TN for third place. Crazy!
TN - 1647
AP - 1179
KA - 818
W B - 537
OR - 462

Total - 25273

We will have around 26-27K cases today. We had 27502 cases last Tuesday. So there will be a slight drop in the seven day average.

[jayakris]

There is just no sign of the MIzoram issue improving. The health department people are giving Kerala-like statements ("we test a lot more, unlike others" blah blah) which means they have no clue. The TPR is going up and up and the test count is not increasing. More than 3 weeks since we started talking about it, I have not seen any sensible statements from anybody from the Centre or the state about what is being done about it or what investigation is going on. Not a word on any genome sequencing or anything.

[Atithee]

India govt won't buy Pfizer, Moderna vaccines amid local output - sources
Neha Arora, Krishna N. Das and Aftab Ahmed
Tue, September 21, 2021, 6:12 AM

https://news.yahoo.com/india-govt-wont- ... 32022.html

[Omkara]

For a Tuesday the numbers were good with Kerala seeing sharp drop. Maybe we are entering into a lull period.

[jayakris]

^^^ Actually Kerala did this last Tuesday also, and disappointed us on Wednesday and Thursday... Hopefully it won't do that this week.

India had +27.3K from 1550K tests at 1.76%... The seven day average dropped very slightly by -23 to 30,652... The fatalities were not low, at 385.... I was hoping for deaths in the 100 range by this time, but not yet.

--------------------
ICMR Update: 556,754,282 total tests... Tuesday tests: 1,592,395... Lab count: 2964

[suresh]

Big States 22/9/2021 Wednesday

KL - 19675 (from 120K tests and TPR of 16.4%) Not terrible if the RTPCR component remains high.
MH - 3608
TN - 1682
AP - 1365
MZ - 1355
KA - 847
OR - 734
WB - 683

Total - 29939

I expect that we will have 31-32K cases today. We had 30355 cases last Wednesday. So the seven day average will go up marginally.

[jayakris]

KL - 19675 (from 120K tests and TPR of 16.4%) Not terrible if the RTPCR component remains high.

It was pretty good. 87,050 tests were good tests (only 27% RATs today). It was 22K more RTPCRs and just 600 more AGs than on last Wednesday, when KER had 17.6K cases. So the TPR fell from 18.21 to 16.52 from last WED and the adjusted TPR fell from 22.29 to 20.71... Not bad at all. I expect the next three days to show 2 or 3K drops each from last week's Thu/Fri/Sat in KER.

[jayakris]

Finally, at least some genome testing info on Mizoram. https://northeastindia24.com/mizoram-re ... ronavirus/

But it is based on samples from August! The current wave took off only on August 21st (precisely on that day, by the way!), so we don't know if enough samples were tested from the new wave. So, we still don't have any idea what the hell is going on. I am fairly convinced that there is a mutant of some sort there, but our genome testing program is still horrible, with very slow response and very few samples for it to be of any use in identifying problems and handling it.

Meanwhile, more articles that show that no "expert" has any clue on what is going on in Mizoram. See this - Researchers have figured why COVID cases continue to rise in Mizoram (No, they haven't figured out a damn thing. Just crap statements!)

[jayakris]

And we had +32.0K cases today, from about 1718K tests at 1.86%... The seven-day average went up by 236 to 30,889... Just hovering at a plus or minus around 30.6K for a few days now. We had 279 deaths.

We did about 7.47M vaccine shots today (4.12M first doses)... So far, 29.6M in four days (17.5M first, 12.1M second). We should cross 50M this week too.

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ICMR Update: 558,367,013 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,527,443... Lab count: 2964

[Kumar]

They are testing more. That is why Mizoram has more test cases

https://www.news18.com/news/india/mizor ... 23876.html

Interesting though, that almost 6000 cases in September is for age group 20 and under. Assuming 15000 cases this month(as of sep16th), that is 40% of the infected population. We will probably start seeing very high case numbers among kids soon.