Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Omkara
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

jai_in_canada wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:48 am Time to do a new poll on when daily new cases will top out, at what level, and which states will be the worst affected.

I say that India will shatter all previous test records and score 350,000 new cases on May 22, 2021 with 75% of the cases being scored in TN, UP, West Bengal, Maharashtra.

Said differently, I predict India will be doing 1.5m tests daily with a positivity of 25%. You can imagine what that scenario will look and feel like in low income neighborhoods, in hospitals and for migrant workers. And what the headlines will be in India and elsewhere.

Sorry to be a downer and I hope that I'm wildly overestimating the scenario.
Do you still live in Canada? If yes, I have to say, world's understanding of India is weak. Hence a few updates. This year's cereal, pulses, cotton and sugar production is going to be highest ever. This year's other production factors also looks good. We as Indian might not have vaccinated ourselves properly but as country we have vaccinated more people outside our country than any one else.

Certain doomsday predictions last year said dead bodies will be lying on the streets with no one to take care of it. Nothing of it materialised.

We vaccinating 4 m people daily is not enough. 300k diagnosed of covid is no great shakes either. Except of Maharashtra entire country is still behaving as if nothing has happened.

I am sorry for every life lost, including my colleague. But it's not beyond control.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by arjun2761 »

Not entirely surprising that this has caused alarm in a section of population and given rise to theories about the possible hidden agendas of World governments. So much so that an Uber driver schooled me on "The Great Reset" and "New World Order" and "Nano particles in vaccines to track everyone" and "You'll own nothing and be happy"...
Getting educated by an Uber driver is always an experience. QAnon has found great receptacles of their theories in the likes of Uber drivers.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jai_in_canada »

Omkara wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:32 pm
Do you still live in Canada? If yes, I have to say, world's understanding of India is weak. Hence a few updates. This year's cereal, pulses, cotton and sugar production is going to be highest ever. This year's other production factors also looks good. We as Indian might not have vaccinated ourselves properly but as country we have vaccinated more people outside our country than any one else.

Certain doomsday predictions last year said dead bodies will be lying on the streets with no one to take care of it. Nothing of it materialised.

We vaccinating 4 m people daily is not enough. 300k diagnosed of covid is no great shakes either. Except of Maharashtra entire country is still behaving as if nothing has happened.

I am sorry for every life lost, including my colleague. But it's not beyond control.
I have split my time 50-50 between India and Canada in the past 5 years (JICI? 🤔).

For the record I think India has handled the pandemic more intelligently, compassionately, imaginatively, competently and flexibly than Canada has. Especially the vaccine roll out thius far. Edit: Remarkable given the relative scope and scale of the problems.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

But I understand your fears. Given the scale of the country, things can easily go out of hand. We don't have any social security. Hence people are opposing any form of lockdown. Given lockdown doesn't affect me, I am for it. But if lockdown is not implemented, we don't have infra to handle the scope of problem.

That Udhav was clear. He said we can make space for a bed. But don't have enough doctors and nurses. To deal with it.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jai_in_canada »

Omkara wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:14 am But I understand your fears. Given the scale of the country, things can easily go out of hand. We don't have any social security. Hence people are opposing any form of lockdown. Given lockdown doesn't affect me, I am for it. But if lockdown is not implemented, we don't have infra to handle the scope of problem.

That Udhav was clear. He said we can make space for a bed. But don't have enough doctors and nurses. To deal with it.
That's just it. How to balance the economic/social/psychological cost of lock down against the public health cost (financial/human) of not locking down? Especially for the most vulnerable people.

Interesting point that you make about the bottleneck being manpower not physical space if numbers got too big. I've been looking for numbers on hospital utilization and procedure cancellations - which would give us a better picture than just cases/deaths. But you make me realize that even with that it would not entirely be clear if it is human resources, equipment or real estate that is the bottleneck in the healthcare system.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jaydeep »

Jai, also we are facing a challenge with the shortage of ICU beds, supply of oxygen and ventilators to hospitals in Maharashtra.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jai_in_canada »

jaydeep wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:22 am Jai, also we are facing a challenge with the shortage of ICU beds, supply of oxygen and ventilators to hospitals in Maharashtra.
Same now in Telangana, although I'm sure not as bad as in Maharashtra and especially Mumbai. I quoted a doctor friend about the situation at his hospital in Hyderabad a few posts ago. They went from no Covid patients 4 weeks ago to 4 wings completely full to capacity a couple of days ago. No numbers on how bad the shortages are in different jurisdictions. Would love to know how many beds are allotted to Covid and how many are occupied.

I have seen sporadic reports about nurses being overworked, but no idea how bad it is or what exactly it means. Are they working 50% more hours than normal? 100%?

P.s. General questions, Jaydeep. Not picking on you. 😀
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Omkara »

jaydeep wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:22 am Jai, also we are facing a challenge with the shortage of ICU beds, supply of oxygen and ventilators to hospitals in Maharashtra.
Today I heard another stat, that in Maharastra daily addition of cases is less than 1000 as recoveries are stronger. Which again is a good sign. If we are able to stop cases at current level (big IF), there will be no further strain on the system. But we have touched limits. Unless cases go down from here, we are staring at a full lockdown soon.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

India to have 5 more COVID vaccines by Oct, Sputnik expected to get emergency use nod in 10 days
Read more At:
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 411143918/

sputnik will get nod in 10 days but they are saying it will be latest by June. Too much time taken there, hope it's available by may.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jaydeep »

jai_in_canada wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:09 am P.s. General questions, Jaydeep. Not picking on you. 😀
Jai, no problem ... We know each other so don't worry. :D

Need to check where we get the data which you are asking for ... Here are the total numbers of hospital beds, this data is from June 2020 ... Afterwards, must be an increase in numbers, but this data will give you a basic idea.

Our health workers are fully stretched so the increasing number of beds are not going to help as we don't have expertise ... Currently, the final year's medical students are also helping authorities in handling patients.

State-wise estimates of current hospital beds, intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators in India
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^^ Yes, we cannot handle much more than around 2.5 times the daily cases at the previous wave's peak in places like Mumbai/Pune. It seems like the hospitalization rate is lower this time, probably because a lot more younger people are getting infected. So, a 2.5 times the peak daily cases probably is resulting in 1.25 times the hospitalizations than in the last peak. That is about what we can handle in places like Mumbai/Pune/Delhi/Hyderabad/etc that reached near peak capacity last time. But many states are well below 2.5 times. I think we will go quite easily to 250K (2.5 times the previous national peak), and we will see which places reach hospital capacity limits. Many many cities are far from it, as of now.

Meanwhile we had +169.9K today. Jeez! But we did 1.75 million tests too. Positivity at 9.69% (but 6.6% outside Maharastra/Goa/Chhattisgarh). But we had 904 deaths today. Maharashtra has been doing some serious testing. They went up to 263K tests, and the positivity dropped slightly to 24% even if the case count was a bit higher. I'm pretty sure that Maharashtra is getting ready to see lower daily totals soon.

----------------
ICMR Update: 257,806,986 total tests... Sunday tests: 1,180,136
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Why is TN plateauing at 80-88k testing? Really means that thry may be doong naam ke vaas testing rather than targeted testing! It has been in 80s for almost 2+ weeks now
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jai_in_canada »

This was bound to happen. :mad:

The disingenuous weasels that the Canadian Government has become under the “leadership” of Just In Truedope predictably has found a scapegoat to divert attention from their own ineptitude. And that scapegoat is India.

Here’s the background. Back on Feb 22, 2021, Canada announced a serious of “tough” new measures to protect Canadians from so-called dangerous new variants in Brazil, South Africa and the UK. These measures primarily targeted international flight arrivals. People flying to Canada as of Feb 22 had to (a) present at departure point prior to boarding a negative RT-PCR test result for Covid-19 taken less than 72 hours before departure (b) they had to wear a mask and follow the strict protocols on the flight (c) when they landed in one of only four open airports they must undergo another RT-PCR test (d) they then must go to a designated hotel for 3 days at their cost (of $2000) to quarantine until the RT-PCR test result was available (e) if the result came back negative they could go home but had to quarantine for another 14 days under random surveillance (they had to show that they had a separate room and bathroom to use to separate themselves from other family), on the 10th day of which there would be another RT-PCR test OR if the airport RT-PCR test came back positive they would be taken to a government-operated detention facility for 14 days (f) after 14 days if they are negative they are free to re-enter society (which itself is under lockdown).

I knew then that the slimy Canadian Government was doing this just to cover their pandering panicking pandemic butts because there was no evidence that such measures would do anything.

Fast forward to April 2021. Canada is setting new records for infections and deaths and a full blown third wave is underway. It is so bad that those twisted skunks could not claim that it would have been worse if they had not put in those measures. So they had to find a scapegoat. Conveniently they latched on to blaming India. This after expressing sympathy and support to the farmer’s protest under duress from certain members of the Trudeau Liberal caucus - which came back to haunt them when Truedope came begging bowl in hand to Modi for vaccines. Still here they are blaming India for their failures.

Here are some choice quotes from the news item in the National Post today.

“India’s devastating second COVID-19 wave correlated with the sudden spike in infected passengers from that country arriving at Canadian airports.” – How is that possible when passengers are only allowed to board with a negative test result, tested just after landing, quarantined at a hotel until the test result came back negative, then quarantined at home even if the test result came back negative, tested at home on the 10th day of home quarantine and forced to quarantine for another 14 days if they tested positive then, quarantined at a government facility if the airport test result came back positive??? So they are admitting that these measures are useless.

“Between March 21 and April 6, 121 flights landed in Toronto carrying infected passengers — 42 of those flights arrived from Delhi.” They have had the strict measures from Feb 22, so why is this being used as an explanation for Mar 21 to Apr 06 arrivals???

“A scientist described B.1.617 to Chennai-based newspaper The Hindu as a ‘homegrown variant and widely exported internationally’.” Which scientist??

“Throughout the pandemic, our actions have been guided by the latest science and evidence,” said spokesperson Cole Davidson. -> Yeah, really? Must be Truedope science because your scientific measures have not stopped a severe third wave in Canada. There's no point blaming India... because if your measures worked it should not have mattered what is happening elsewhere.

P.S. The real reason for the third wave is NOT India. It is because those restrictive rules have a long list of exemptions - mostly temporary farm workers and medical workers - who don't have to undergo those restrictions. None of those is from India. Central America, Caribbean, and Philippines, anyone?
Last edited by jai_in_canada on Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

Here is a The Hindu article which is only available for subscribers. I don't have a subscription but the article was posted in another forum
https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/healt ... epage=true

:puke:
Starting April 1, the Centre permitted anyone above the age of 45 to get vaccinated. This came nearly a month after India started seeing a visible rise in daily infections and with universal acknowledgement from government and experts that the country was in the midst of a second wave. This may explain the growing number of takers for vaccines from late March. Though India in the initial vaccination phase prioritised healthcare and frontline workers and those above 60 years of age and above 45 with comorbidities, the roll-out was planned at a time when cases had plummeted. It seemed, and several government-backed epidemiological modelling exercises proffered mathematics to support this, that India had dodged a second wave, with COVID-19 expected to extinguish itself by February.
The main problem I have with the central govt is they were not at all prepared for the worst situation. At this point of time Modi is not thinking beyond BJP. I wonder if he even remembers he is the PM of the country? He only cares about winning election in WB. Just give the PM seat to Gadkari who looks way more efficient.

And we have another set of buffoons in the name of leftists, and among them one of the more famous one is Prasanth Bhushan. Some months back when 35,000 crore was announced for vaccination he was like....the covid is already over in India why are they wasting that money on vaccination, they should just give that money to the protesting farmers.
And day before yesterday he came up with a tweet sharing some article or study and said that we should not wear masks. It was twitter which finally removed it after a day.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

^^Depleter, I am not seeing why you blame PM Modi here. Because The Hindu conveniently added "Government-backed" to the line you show in bold? It is not like some other "true scientists" in India predicted a wave! They all acted like we were all but done with Covid. What was Modi to have done? Who says we are not prepared? What should or could we have done? In fact, beyond taking a bold decision to not waste 6 weeks on "warrior" vaccinations (again, not a soul in India suggested that step), I don't know what he needed to do or could've done. I think you (and you are not alone) just don't like Modi and yell at him! I mean, I can understand the frustration at seeing what is going on, and the need to yell at somebody, so the responsible one, the PM, is going to get it. It is like me yelling at Uddhav in Maharashtra's case, I guess :)

I really don't think anybody in India could've done anything about this wave. Not a damn thing. Maybe they could've delayed things a bit with some more testing, and maybe a lot more talk from Modi on masks could've made a 10-15% change in case numbers, but that is about it. Here is why (and you know this very well). We are at 9700 infections per million. Less than 1 percent of the population. That is 1/10th of the 9.7% in USA... Less than 1/3rd of the 3.1% in Russia (and the top nations in case count are all somewhere in between those ranges). There is a whole ocean of uninfected people in our country, and at some point this wave was going to start.

Just pray that the peak will happen under 250K per day (though it looks more and more remote now; and we could even see 500K a day in 2-3 weeks time for all we know!)
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