Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[Kumar]

May be just post the new vaccination updates in number thread and not worry about the past weeks

[jai_in_canada]

One report has it that the fire at the SEI factory a couple of months ago is still curtailing capacity. The CEO put on a brave face, said that there is back up capacity, and that they would recover soon. Not soon enough, by the looks of it. Of course, there are the political shenanigans that make logistics of delivery even more difficult. So there seem to be both manufacturing and distribution issues.

[Kumar]

https://www.businessinsider.in/india/ne ... 974935.cms

Th37 doctors from delhi hospital who got both doses got covid , but scary that 5 of them are admitted in hospital

There was a report in TOI that 180 people have died after vaccination with 75% of them within 3 days since start of vaccination drive! There were reports of blood clots! I think we need to seriously start lookign at JJ, russian vaccine and novavaxx to augment our supply

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 978526.cms

[depleter]

https://www.businessinsider.in/india/ne ... 974935.cms

Th37 doctors from delhi hospital who got both doses got covid , but scary that 5 of them are admitted in hospital

There was a report in TOI that 180 people have died after vaccination with 75% of them within 3 days since start of vaccination drive! There were reports of blood clots! I think we need to seriously start lookign at JJ, russian vaccine and novavaxx to augment our supply

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 978526.cms

Saw this

[Omkara]

Yesterday was a bad day. Lost a dear colleague of mine to covid. He had comorbidities. He is survived by his wife, parents and a four year old kid. They knew of the comorbidity. Hence, they were careful but let their guard down over the last few months.

He was below 45, so wasn't eligible for vaccine. It sucks.

My neighbor is now covid +ve and my family is stuck in our flat with limit scope of mobility.

[jai_in_canada]

Yesterday was a bad day. Lost a dear colleague of mine to covid. He had comorbidities. He is survived by his wife, parents and a four year old kid. They knew of the comorbidity. Hence, they were careful but let their guard down over the last few months.

He was below 45, so wasn't eligible for vaccine. It sucks.

My neighbor is now covid +ve and my family is stuck in our flat with limit scope of mobility.

That is tragic. So sad.

[jai_in_canada]

https://www.businessinsider.in/india/ne ... 974935.cms

Th37 doctors from delhi hospital who got both doses got covid , but scary that 5 of them are admitted in hospital

There was a report in TOI that 180 people have died after vaccination with 75% of them within 3 days since start of vaccination drive! There were reports of blood clots! I think we need to seriously start lookign at JJ, russian vaccine and novavaxx to augment our supply

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 978526.cms

The issue of enhanced immunogenic response is hardly discussed. This is where there appears to be a strong immune response after the jab (evidenced by the good production of antibodies) but when the individual encounters the actual wild virus (especially in high viral loads like doctors & nurses do), they sometimes get more sick than they would have without the vaccine because their innate immunity has been suppressed by the vaccine and their adaptive immunity is too specific to protect against even a slight variant. One school of thought (not heard much) is that this effect can lead to even worse pandemic waves than if we just protected the vulnerable and let the virus rip through the general population to bring about herd immunity - but that's a hot potato that no government will touch because they are afraid of being accused of doing nothing. So they keep themselves busy with lock downs, travel restrictions, testing, quarantining, and now vaccination drives - while the pandemic rages on.

There is concern that the clinical trials for the SARS-Covid-2 vaccines have been severely shortened, animal trials were not sufficiently done, and human trials were only done on healthy people in the 30-60 age group – all to rush the vaccine to market. So the concern for some is that there exists very little reliable data on both short-term and long-term safety & efficacy of these vaccines that have been published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. What we see are claims by the manufacturers themselves published in mainstream media.

As a result we are going to see anecdotal scary stories like this in the media which will predictably lead to a strong response from the vaccine lobby trying to assure the general public of the vaccines' safety and efficacy. But every such story will increase vaccine hesitancy just a little bit.

[jayakris]

Meanwhile, what the hell is Jagan doing? AP has not increased testing an iota for the last several weeks when the case numbers have gone up TEN times. Still doing 31K tests. Heck, it was 40K+ in December if I remembe3r correctly, and they had hardly 200 cases there. Today there are +2765 in AP and the positivity has gone up to 8.7% .... Still doing 31K tests. How some os these state leaders sleep on the matter is just painful to watch. AP is one of those states that seems to do things only after the CM says something. Not a word from that useless fellow. Instead we got this yesterday - Huge crowd expected at Jagan’s sister’s party launch amid Covid challenge (Hindusthan Times)... God Save Andhra Pradesh. Mark it down. 20K cases in 2 to 3 weeks time there. Not a doubt. It will be 20% positivity next week and it will be mayhem. 11 deaths today, suddenly. And I was fully expecting it, pulling my har out every day for 3 weeks seeing the testing numbers. Look for 25+ day next week. God save Andhra Pradesh.

The testing rate itself is not the end of it all. One reason I look closely at it, is because it is also a reflection of whether the state leadership is recognizing the seriousness and telling people. The leaders need to scare the hell out of people, and that is the only way to do it. I bet the AP people did not see anything special the last 3 weeks on being careful, and there was no hooplah in the Telugu press about it. Trouble was bound to come. I mean, the signs of this wave were very clear for us observers, and AP has been in trouble for 3-4 weeks, ever since it started in Chittoor district in small numbers. The leaders of our stupid states do nothing. Jagan is just so cluless, though I know the state machinery is relatively capable and they are ready to run hard, if only the fellow at the top would ask for it. In AP's case, I think the Center has also been totally hands off, and they were not sending central teams or creating fear in people. Now, it is too late. Be at the virus' mercy and lose a lot of old folks to untimely deaths that were so avoidable.

But, three cheers to Kachara and Telangana for going over 100K tests a day! They have kept the rise of the wave quite slow with extremely responsive testing rates. Still operating at 2.4% positivity.

[jai_in_canada]

But, three cheers to Kachara and Telangana for going over 100K tests a day! They have kept the rise of the wave quite slow with extremely responsive testing rates. Still operating at 2.4% positivity.

Three cheers to Kachara??!!

Jay, how does extremely responsive testing rates by itself keep the rise of the wave slow? Wouldn't they actually have to do something intelligent based on the test results to slow the wave?

[jayakris]

Three cheers to Kachara??!!

Well, unless Pinocchio is lying, Telangana's testing rate, case numbers, case fatality rate etc have been excellent since late last summer. What can I do. Kachara (or somebody advising him) is doing his/her job!

Jay, how does extremely responsive testing rates by itself keep the rise of the wave slow? Wouldn't they actually have to do something intelligent based on the test results to slow the wave?

Testing is not a reactive thing (it shouldn't be!). It is a pro-active measure. A few items, that you can logically connect to each other to see how it is so:

1) Many people, 50% to 80% around the world who are tested, are asymptomatic and do not have a clue that they are positive. Once they know, they will help prevent their infecting others. People are not as dumb as we think they are, when they have info. They don't look for info though, and could be even dumber than we think, when we don't inform them.

2) The best control measure against Covid is to TELL THE PEOPLE that they are infected. As early as possible. Other than totally uneducated folks, most people can and will cut giving infections to those in their family/friends from 3 or 4 people to 1 or 2 people. Easily 50% reduction of infections, on average, I am sure. NO control measure like lockdown and all that will reduce infection rate like that.

3) Better positivity means that you are finding people early. If the positivity is over 10%, you are getting most of the people 5 to 10 days after infection when they have already infected more people, and you haven't got to those others, that will come 4 or 5 days later. Vicious cycle. People know only after turning symptomatic and the lost 3-4 days can prove crucial in medical care to avoid deaths because of the suddenly worsening nature of Covid when approaching death.

4) Higher test rate implies either (a) better contact tracing, in which case 4 to 8 percent positivity is fine, or (b) a lot of tests done without contact tracing, in which case 2 to 4 percent should be the positivity (or 1 to 2.5 percent if Antigen tests are used) is good.

5) If fewer people are infected by each infected person because they were tested before turning symptomatic (due to contact tracing from whoever gave it to this person), they give it to fewer. Everybody has a somewhat finite number of contacts, so the speed at which newer people get infected slows down. THAT is what reduces the slope of the curve. Data is very clear that the slope of the wave is so much dependent on testing rate. We can see that across the states. Just compare what is going ion Telangana and AP. Or Odisha and Chattisgarh.

So on it goes... The answer to your question is that testing is mostly not for doing anything intelligent after that. Of course, doing basic intelligent things like telling the positive patient what to do and not to do so as to prevent further infections to near and dear ones, will certainly help. It is before testing, to increase the testing rate, that the authorities need to be intelligent. After testing, the public is the ones who actually will use intelligence. Trust them. This aspect is totally lost on many authorities though. Controlling people is their normal instinct.

Testing can also be for surveillance purposes and hot-spot identification, so that more resources can be sent for contact tracing where possible, or mass testing without contact tracing (like in slums or apartment complexes). But most authorities think that hot-spot identification is for putting in restrictions and lockdowns in place. That is all bullcrap. Testing and telling the infected people that others they care for could get it because of them, is the MOST important control measure. Testing is the device for that. But it needs to be with contact tracing or focused area-based testing. Better testing rates indicate a lot of good things.

[jayakris]

And my deep apologies for forgetting to call Jagan names, in the post above. Jackass Jagan. I am an equal opportunity abuser of politicians, so I shouldn't have forgotten. But somebody in AP please wake up the jackass. The last time the jackass even overdid things when he got into the act, ordering a big consignment of useless antibody tests from Korea that didn't work, and he had to cancel the order. Jackasses run fast when they wake up, so wake him up!

Himanta Biswa Sarma of Assam put his foot in the mouth last week (as Rajit had mentioned above) saying "nahi hai... Covid nahi hai, asam main.. mae kya karoo, if it is not there!". He was talking about people needing to work, and asking how a beauty parlor can do the work if people wear masks. So no need for masks when there is no Covid around.. He said that in a casual conversation but it went viral. That guy talks too much. But Himanta was terrific for 10 months, doing everything right, before shutting it down in January as he moved on to election politics. Assam had gone from even 3000+ case once to under 10 cases a day. But they have 285 cases there today. They are not in big trouble just yet, but if he does not wake up this week, Guwahati will show 1500 cases in 10-15 days. I may have to abuse that guy too with some name-calling soon.

[Kumar]

Do we know how is negative test handled today across states! A perosn negative on day 1 of testing (especially those rapid antigen test) , may start showing symptoms on day 4 potentially infecting others! Does the corporation follow up on day 3 or day 4 to do another antigen test?

Is there a WHO or global recommendation from health care experts on testing strategy? I think WHO has just failed with this pandemic with their pandering ! The top guy needs to go!
I am still confused why we dont have a common advisory to do antigen test for symptomatic patients and rt-pcr for contacts! Every symptomatic patient should get a rapid test (poc) and if it is negative, immediately do the rt-pcr ! They should not leave the testing center until the results of antigen testing is out! Not sure if the infrastructure is there to achieve that! Doing antigen test for asymptomatic patients is just an eye wash( doing something for sake of doing) ! After an year of fighting this, testing should be a well oiled machine with co-ordinated response!

[suresh]

The protocol in India is as follows: Following a negative RAT result, symptomatic people are expected to do a follow-up RT-PCR test to confirm if the RAT result is correct.

[jayakris]

We had +144.9K cases today. The rise is not not in Maharashtra or even Chhattisgarh. We are going up elsewhere by 10 or 15K a day. Just an uncontrolled growth. This should keep going till 200K or 300K soon. We did 1629K tests at 8.90% positivity (now even outside MAH/Goa/CHG, it is 5.55%). 773 deaths too.

States that are quite possibly at/near the peak: Maharashtra, Punjab. The states that may reach a peak soon: May be Delhi... All the rest are rising. Hopefully it slows down or starts dropping in 2 or 3 weeks, but it could be 5 or 6 weeks for all I know.

Vaccinations were good, but not as high as yesterday. We added 3.70M doses and 3.41M people today. Total is 98.1M doses to 85.8M people.

----------------
ICMR Update: 255,214,803 total tests... Friday tests: 1,173,219 ... The mismatch between what ICMR says what the states report has gone to ridiculous levels lately, like 300-500K tests a day. Come on, ICMR, explain what is going on! All tests are supposed to hit your portal, but is that happening?

[Omkara]

The decision not to impose Maharashtra like lockdown was a silly one. The first weekend, roads a simply empty. Public transport is there. Grocery and vegetables stores are open. Restaurants are doing home delivery. Excellent balance between economy and health hazard. Just hope it works.

The entire country must start doing the same. Had Maharashtra done it three weeks ago, it wouldn't have worsened to this extent. And Maharashtra should learn from other states. Still 24% positivity