Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

If we have a whole stockpile of vaccines and vaccine hesitancy or vaccine unreachability, why are we limiting it to people? Just vaccinate as many as fast based on FCFS. If there is a huge line/delay, then prioritize based on age/comorbidity, etc.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

suresh wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:07 pmChennai corporation has been vaccinating all people above 45 even if they did not have comorbidities. They have also been conducting camps in various locations. This is all good. However, the number of daily vaccinations has take a slight dip which I hope is temporary.
I think there may have been some CoWin delays in registering etc, as they increased the registration capacity to 10M per day, and then some reductions could be due to preparing for the expanded vaccinations from today onward. But the dip in vaccination that they are all talking about is simply Sunday through Wednesday this week. It about 2M less, in total... May be 40% less than we expected, extrapolating from the rising trend the previous 3 weeks till last Saturday. Hopefully it is temporary and it will go up from now on, again.

Meanwhile, we had +72.1K yesterday (Wednesday), with positivity at 6.77% (but 3.62% outside Maharashtra). MAH is doing a lot more tests now, but they are unable to bring down the 23+ positivity. That happens when you are nearing the peak, which is hopefully the case. But more tests would mean that the drop will also come sooner than later. I am hopeful.

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ICMR Update: 244,798,621 total tests... Wednesday tests: 1,125,681
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

And we crossed 80K today, to +81.3K cases... From 1225K tests, so the positivity didn't worsen from yesterday (which is good to see). 6.64% overall, and 3.66% outside MAH. Now, Maharashtra has gone up to 183K tests. Keep it up!

Vaccinations today don't look great, though not horrible. 1.62M by 8 pm. In total, 67.5M total doses and 58.3M people. The rate needs to at least double soon.

EDIT: It ended up as a great day on vaccinations. 3.4 million people done on the first day of the new phase itself!! Whoa. Alright; let's go. The elephant has now put into third gear. If it accelerates to 4 and 5 million per day, we will be really cooking!

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ICMR Update: 245,912,587 total tests... Thursday tests: 1,113,966... Lab count: 2440
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

Sachin Tendulkar, Irfan Pathan, Yusuf Pathan and S. Badrinath all participated in some Road Safety event and all have tested positive for Covid19 a week ago. Sachin has been admitted to the hospital as a precautionary measure (yesterday?).
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Atithee »

Spectators were allowed in this tournament. Dumb idea and dumber protocols. What people will do to make money!
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

They all shared the dressing room. Here is what actually caused Covid transmission. I don't know what to say about this kind of idiocy from our "legends". In fact, what would surprise me is if this kind of activity like rubbing each other's faces with hands does not cause transmission of Covid (if any one of them had it). It is terrible that people around the world STILL don't know any sort of common sense about this virus.

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Hope they all recover soon. But it is a matter of concern that Sachin has actually been hospitalized, 6 days after turning positive. He said it is due to "abundance of caution" .... but hospitalization is pretty rare in India, so he must be having a more serious case of Covid-19 than normal. I hope all goes well.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

They all deserve to be bestowed with last year's word of the year: Covidiot!

Maybe next year they will have a tournament. How about? Tournament of Covidiots: to raise awareness about COVID-19 and its deadly effects to reduce idiocy and rank callousness related to the disease. Brought to you by Champion of Covidiots.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jai_in_canada »

They went from being idols to Covidols!!!
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by prasen9 »

:-) More like covidulls ;-) Covidolts is better? If you allow me to steal a "t" from somewhere.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jai_in_canada »

prasen9 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:03 pm :-) More like covidulls ;-) Covidolts is better? If you allow me to steal a "t" from somewhere.
You can steal the "t" from Tendulkar, Pathan, Badrinath....😁

Reminds me of the ill-fated Adria Tour organized by Djokovic last year. They played shirtless soccer, partied at a nightclub, and hugged after matches. IIRC most of the players, including Djokovic, Dimitrov, Zverev and Thiem tested positive.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Meanwhile, 713 deaths today... Out of that 434 (including 202 from MAH) are from today, and then an extra 279 were added on reconciliations by Maharashtra. I was waiting for that. I think there is more of that to come, and more will be added like this later too. MAH has not suddenly gone down to 0.5 CFR or anything. The state has no clue on their numbers. Expecting an extra 500 reconciliation next week like this, or a sudden 2000 added a few weeks from now, or something like that. Unwieldy state with incompetent governance. Argh :damn:

Anyway, it is +89.0K now, with 47.9K in Maharashtra. I had predicted way back that we would blow past our 98K earlier record. I didn't expect it till mid-April though. Looks like we will hit 150-200K this month (may be in 10 to 20 days) before there is a chance for it to come down. It is a horrendous situation right now. Testing is going kinda okay. 1265K tests today. 3.79% positivity outside Maharashtra (7.02 with MAH).

Gujarat keeps on raising their testing and is still keeping a 2.5% even with 2640 cases. They did 107K tests today :notworthy: ... Chattisgarh on the other hand got +4174 and they stubbornly refuse to test any more than 30 or 35K. It's the same old maddening inconsistency among states, even now. Kerala raised the tests to 80 and 90K for a week, forced a peak and drop, but then took the foot off the pedal (back to testing 50K to 55K)... They allowed the next wave to start after going down to 1800 per day average. Back to 2300 per day. Idiots run God's own country. AP has already lost it. They did nothing for 3-4 weeks with their testing rate, just as the cases went from 50 to 500... and now it is beginning to steeply climb. 1300 cases there today. Expecting AP to go up to 15000 cases per day in 4-5 weeks. Count on it. They didn't show much clue during the first wave, and they won't do much better this time too. TN and KAR are hanging in there, doing adequate testing, but I don't know for how long. Mamata has time only time for politics, so WB has already gone up to 6.4% and 1700 cases. The Kolkata area has caught fire with 1200+ cases now. Expect 2000+ per day next week there. Delhi is up to 3600 cases and are the only place going to a 4th peak. Delhi may go up and come down quickly, as the testing isn't bad. They need to raise it 20% if they can.

There is NO end in sight and not a single state is showing any sign of being anywhere near a peak (except maybe Punjab/Chandigarh).

Vaccinations weren't bad, but not as good as yesterday. 2.89M today, and 63,08M total [But the Ministry spreadsheet is all messed up, and many states ae showing negative numbers for the day, when yesterday's totals are subtracted; so hold on... Need to wait for their corrected spreadsheet later, I guess! Come on, people. Excel can't be this hard :( ]

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ICMR: 246,959,192 total tests... Friday tests: 1,046,605 (why is it not going up??)
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by depleter »

prasen9 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:19 pm If we have a whole stockpile of vaccines and vaccine hesitancy or vaccine unreachability, why are we limiting it to people? Just vaccinate as many as fast based on FCFS. If there is a huge line/delay, then prioritize based on age/comorbidity, etc.
Do we have a stock pile? yes. But it will be only enough for the current pace. It can't sustain higher pace and definitely can't sustain FCFS. Unless they give permission to Sputnik, we can't go very high at least almost may.
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jai_in_canada »

jayakris wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:21 pm It is a horrendous situation right now.
Why do you term it "horrendous", Jay? Edit: I realise now that you were describing the >150k cases/day to be horrendous.

Still, will hospitalizations get up to the point where people with Covid-19 are dying due to unavailable capacity? Are people with other morbidities dying due to canceled heart surgeries, cancer treatments etc. because hospitals are full with Covid patients? I can't find stats on hospital occupancy or excess deaths.
jayakris wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:21 pm There is NO end in sight and not a single state is showing any sign of being anywhere near a peak (except maybe Punjab/Chandigarh).
My prediction is that the pandemic will be declared over when 1 billion have been infected and 10 million deaths have been attributed to Covid-19 - Worldwide, that is. Or when 65% of the World's population has been vaccinated. Which ever is later. Currently we are at 130 million infections and 2.85 million deaths. At the rate of doubling every 72 days or so, I predict we will reach 1 billion infections by Oct/Nov. But vaccinations will not be at 65% then - which means that this is going to drag into March 2022. What is the science behind this very insightful prediction? Just a hunch :devil: . Then the pandemic will be deemed to have ended and the virus deemed to have become endemic. (Sounds like a couple of Croatian tennis players - Ivan Pandemic and Goran Endemic. :p ).

WRT testing, I find some of the stats curious. The US has done 1.2 times as many tests as its total population. The UK has done 1.9 times as many tests as its population. Obviously, some people have been tested more than once while others have not been tested at all. It then must mean that some people have tested positive more than once - because the numbers keep growing. If the same person tests positive twice, is that 2 cases? What happens when someone tests positive in the morning and negative in the afternoon (as it happened with Elon Musk)?
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Kumar »

Very disappointing to see testing numbers from TN ! It has not gone up even one iota! Guess too much political pressure to not shelf candidates who may turn out positive!

TN is basically waiting for election to be over, before starting the crackdown! We will probably see huge numbers as soon as the election is over this Tuesday

As to indian legends, did they not have a bubble? I see lot of elderly people without masks in both indoor and outdoor spaces , so to expect athletes who probably still think themself invincible to behave in this manner is not surprising!
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Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

jai_in_canada wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:30 amStill, will hospitalizations get up to the point where people with Covid-19 are dying due to unavailable capacity? Are people with other morbidities dying due to canceled heart surgeries, cancer treatments etc. because hospitals are full with Covid patients? I can't find stats on hospital occupancy or excess deaths.
No, I don't think that is happening in India, though reports seem to indicate that Maharashtra may be getting close to trouble. The rest of India is all well under control. It is so much more the younger population that are affected in this wave, on which there are many reports. Maharashtra is at twice the daily cases now than in the first peak. But death numbers have so far been 1/3rd or 1/5th the rate, and probably hospitalizations too. That being said, unless the numbers peak under 60 or 65K, I think Maharashtra will run into trouble. Even the first time, we only got up to 96% occupancy in earmarked Covid beds and oxygen beds in Mumbai, if I remember correctly. So, we do need to get a peak in Maharashtra soon. I don't know if peak numbers everywhere will go to 2 or 3 times the first peak - but till then we may not be in trouble hospital capacity-wise. Not yet. At least that is what I gather.
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