Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

440,681 vaccinated till 7pm today and U.P accounted for more than 150k of them.

Should be over 500 or 550K by late night... I guess it's time to raise the bar on our expectations. Maybe 750K or 800K on the peak days next week?

[jayakris]

+13.1K cases today, from about 834K tests @ 1.57% ... The seven-day average dropped by 182 to 12.5K... Kerala average has dropped slightly for the last 4 days, so that is a good sign.

But the Maharashtra death count is still not reducing like it should. 56 of today's 137 deaths were from Maharashtra. That needs to drop to a daily average of 10 or 15 rather than the 40+ now. Punjab also is very high in CFR. They had 11 today, and PUN has an average of about 9 or so a day, while the case average is just about 200. PUN and MAH should be getting 1/3rd the deaths, really. Kerala gets about 25 times the cases Punjab gets, but only about 2.5 times the deaths.

Update: 571,974 was the total vaccinations on Friday, and we are at 3.5 million total already (3,500,027)

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ICMR Update: 195,837,408 total tests... Friday tests: 756,329... Lab count: 2362

[jayakris]

Novovax from the US seems to have 89% efficacy too. It doesn't need extra refrigeration like Pfizer and Moderna, so that is good for India's cold-supply-chain. Adar Poonawallah says SII will launch the Indian version of it (Covavax) by June... Good, good... Keep adding capacity and get more vaccines out there. The world needs India to come through. Still not sure how good the Oxford vaccine is. Maybe only 60%... We (and the world) need alternatives.

With 3.5 million doses done by Friday night, India is now 4th in the world after US, China and UK in vaccination count.

Update on States' vaccination: India's average as of Friday 29th late night was 2.627 per thousand population. One in 380 people, that is.... Long way to go... ODI (4.699), KAR, TEL, HAR, RAJ (4.206) are at the top and the only ones over 1 in 250 people vaccinated.... UP (2.061) does it only on Thu/Fri each week, but went berserk and did 170K each the last two days. They've came up from the bottom to the 16th spot among the big 22 states... MP (2.994) moved to #10 too... But the pathetic story continues to be Tamil Nadu that does vaccination every week day but has crossed even 10K only one day in two weeks, and averaged just 6500 a day this week... What is wrong in TN???... TN (1.283), ASM, BIH, JH (0.885) are the bottom 4 states. Will post the full weekly update tomorrow (Sunday).

[Atithee]

Jay, it could be that people are not taking the vaccine. In talking with family in India, I’m finding that, perhaps buoyed by low numbers, people probably feel they are fine and don’t need a vaccine.

[jayakris]

Jay, it could be that people are not taking the vaccine. In talking with family in India, I’m finding that, perhaps buoyed by low numbers, people probably feel they are fine and don’t need a vaccine.

But why is it so bad in just Tamil Nadu though? It seems to be not a problem elsewhere in the south, and in a bunch of other places. TN usually doesn't fall behind like this.

Meanwhile, it was a light day today (saturday) - Only 206,130 vaccinations till 7 pm... India total is 3,706,157.

[depleter]

Novovax from the US seems to have 89% efficacy too. It doesn't need extra refrigeration like Pfizer and Moderna, so that is good for India's cold-supply-chain. Adar Poonawallah says SII will launch the Indian version of it (Covavax) by June... Good, good... Keep adding capacity and get more vaccines out there. The world needs India to come through. Still not sure how good the Oxford vaccine is. Maybe only 60%... We (and the world) need alternatives.

With 3.5 million doses done by Friday night, India is now 4th in the world after US, China and UK in vaccination count.

5th, Israel has done more the 4.5M. Covavax by June is too late. Looks like they didn't start it's production before the approval like Astra Zenca.

[rajitghosh]

Add me in the list of covid positives. Suddenly had high fever day before with shivering the way you get malaria. Got both malaria and covid tested. Malaria negative covid positive.

[Atithee]

Get well soon, Rajit.

[Kumar]

Add me in the list of covid positives. Suddenly had high fever day before with shivering the way you get malaria. Got both malaria and covid tested. Malaria negative covid positive.

Rajit, Best Wishes for speedy recovery

[jayakris]

Add me in the list of covid positives. Suddenly had high fever day before with shivering the way you get malaria. Got both malaria and covid tested. Malaria negative covid positive.

Wish you a fast recovery, Rajit. Hopefully it goes away in a couple of days like it does for most people.

[prasen9]

We are rooting for you Rajit babu. Get well soon.

[suresh]

Add me in the list of covid positives. Suddenly had high fever day before with shivering the way you get malaria. Got both malaria and covid tested. Malaria negative covid positive.

Take care and get well soon.

[suresh]

I suspect that a significant fraction of the medical community in TN is not taking the vaccine. I have no info but am guessing.

[prasen9]

We are all hoping that Mr. Ghosh has the Suresh-strain of COVID, i.e., a false positive or no COVID at all. But, the Suresh-covid does not come with fever it seems

[jayakris]

I suspect that a significant fraction of the medical community in TN is not taking the vaccine. I have no info but am guessing.

Maybe the Hindu newspaper effect? They are constantly negative on all these things, and go out of the way to say that things are all screwed up in India. Just the newspaper's style.

Meanwhile, we had +13.1K today, from about 840K tests at 1.56%... 6.3K in KER, 2.6K in MAH and just 4.1K elsewhere... The 7-day average dropped by 262 to 12.2K... The count outside of Kerala and Maharashtra seems to be flattening to somewhere around 3500 cases... maybe... Kerala has been dropping slightly in their average for a few days, but Maharashtra seems to be stuck at around that 2.3K to 2.8K range.... Perhaps India will go down below +10K to 7K or 8K a day in February (if KER drops a lot); but I'm unsure if it will go any further down. But I will take a 6K/day in India as near-zero, as the active case count will then be well under 1 lakh and that is really nothing much (it's like 1 in 20K people being infected). I suspect we have several other diseases with higher fatality rate with more patients in India. Need to see the death total go below 50 per day though. Also, the lower we take the daily case count and the number of infectious people, the better the chance to delay the start of another wave.

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ICMR Update: 196,588,372 total tests... Saturday tests: 750,964