Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[jayakris]

This sero survey is happening but the sample may be too small to extrapolate. However numbers are definitely over reported. Dr. Bhagavan Pawar has reported about 5000 less and around 200 less deaths.

Glad to see that you are fine, Rajit. I am still waiting to see when Maharashtra will take out some numbers for Pune. But is amazing to see that Pune now has more cases than Mumbai.

It seems the Pune Sero-survey showed 50 percent have antibodies now in the areas they took samples from. Yikes. Not surprising. But the case numbers need to be going down. It makes no sense to me why it doesn't, in Pune. Maybe they are picking up way too many asymptomatic people.

[jayakris]

ICMR Update: 30,941,264 Total... Monday tests: 899,864... Ouch. I guess we *might* get 70K on Tuesday, despite my guarantee to Suresh that it won't happen .... If we have done 950K tests and we are not much below 7.5%, we are probably looking at 70K+ .... Lab count: 1476

[rajitghosh]

This sero survey is happening but the sample may be too small to extrapolate. However numbers are definitely over reported. Dr. Bhagavan Pawar has reported about 5000 less and around 200 less deaths.

Glad to see that you are fine, Rajit. I am still waiting to see when Maharashtra will take out some numbers for Pune. But is amazing to see that Pune now has more cases than Mumbai.

It seems the Pune Sero-survey showed 50 percent have antibodies now in the areas they took samples from. Yikes. Not surprising. But the case numbers need to be going down. It makes no sense to me why it doesn't, in Pune. Maybe they are picking up way too many asymptomatic people.

The Pune survey was done in the areas where there were maximum cases. So the results are not surprising but even those areas have large populations being densely packed areas (basically old Pune). Extrapolating such a sample even for the population in those areas may not be right. We don't know how they surveyed. I suspect they would have gone to people who had been positive and tested their family and neighbours missing out people who may be living in the vicinity. Lot of cases would be asymptomatic but my hypothesis is that the growth is a result of indiscipline, the weather and better testing (at least testing is easily available now). Pune and Bangalore going up together is probably not a co-incidence. Both these cities have opened up to a good extent and both witness fall in temperature during monsoons. In fact, Pune has been experiencing quite cool weather in the past few days.
To top this all, my society got its first case today. I think this would give a first hand experience of how PCMC works.

[Sin Hombre]

I was randomly playing around withe some data and BD is still at 24% positivity.

Their inflection point is a complete joke, and an artifact of deliberately not testing enough.

[Omkara]

I was randomly playing around withe some data and BD is still at 24% positivity.

Their inflection point is a complete joke, and an artifact of deliberately not testing enough.

BD???? Bangladesh?

[Omkara]

ICMR Update: 30,941,264 Total... Monday tests: 899,864... Ouch. I guess we *might* get 70K on Tuesday, despite my guarantee to Suresh that it won't happen .... If we have done 950K tests and we are not much below 7.5%, we are probably looking at 70K+ .... Lab count: 1476

This is good. 70k is for sure. Let's see where maha and ap go. Also Punjab trends need to be monitored.

[Omkara]

Our active cases have declined two days in a row ....

[jayakris]

Lot of cases would be asymptomatic but my hypothesis is that the growth is a result of indiscipline, the weather and better testing (at least testing is easily available now). Pune and Bangalore going up together is probably not a co-incidence. Both these cities have opened up to a good extent and both witness fall in temperature during monsoons. In fact, Pune has been experiencing quite cool weather in the past few days.

I tend to agree. All of those factors have caused cases and these are some of the more important factors. We knew that these were all possibilities and had hoped that maybe some or all of them won't be such bad factors, or that the virus won't be too sensitive to them. But basically every little thing that people warned could cause spread, have all caused spread in India. Perhaps some slightly better immunity response, and the significantly higher fraction of younger population have all tempered the effects to some extent too. But if that is the case, it is even more reason that it will start to drop after a peak right around now, after local spread has been going on in almost all parts of India for at least the last 5-6 weeks.

[Rajiv]

I was randomly playing around withe some data and BD is still at 24% positivity.

Their inflection point is a complete joke, and an artifact of deliberately not testing enough.

Just like Dharavi, the biggest slum in the world, where Udhav and company have tried to paint positive picture

[Omkara]

We have gone up today as expected but 70k.... Let's see.

I'm other news, once again stupidity at it peak. When BMC conducted a camp in our society one family excused itself from being tested. Now all six members have tested positive. Don't know who all they have infected.

[jayakris]

I see that KAR did 59.1K tests yesterday. We may get a 9K from them, for all we know... Watch out.

[Omkara]

Any idea which states have done more testing today. TN didn't.

[jayakris]

Any idea which states have done more testing today. TN didn't.

Mainly Karnataka, Gujarat and some in Punjab, so far. About 30K to 35K more between them. But most states have done some 5 to 10% more, and that all adds up.

Not sure what MAH will report (and they themselves don't seem to know even after reporting ). That is always the joker in the pack.

TN has not increased their testing in months. They keep doing the RT-PCR tests with the stupid thumbrule sanctioned by the state that 10 people should be tested for every positive. So the officials seem to not bother once they hit that number. It must be, because the numbers are so steady all over the state. And places like Coimbatore are never going down in the steady addition of cases. Mostly what happened as infections because of the RT-PCR delays of an extra day or two compared to AG tests. Blockhead officials screwing the state. And the death numbers are only increasing. 121 again today. If they add some minimal AG test count (just 20K will do), they will catch the more severe cases immediately, to avoid deaths. This is criminal stupidity. When will they get a clue? Frustrating.

[jayakris]

Gujarat tested 57.2K people today, for 1126 cases and a positivity of 1.96% ... It is amazing how much Gujarat improved over time. The state that used to add 35 deaths with 500 cases (for death rates over 6%) two months ago, has come down to just 15 to 20 deaths a day as they have been adding over 1000+ cases for the last couple of weeks (death rates around 1.75% now).

[suresh]

Mah 11119 with 422 deaths today!