Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

@omkara (Sumanta) Isn't this the usual Monday low? (Sunday was low because Saturday was Independence day.)

[Omkara]

Jay is a better judge to say that. I haven't looked into numbers in details for a few weeks now. To me todays numbers look a bit lower than usual Monday lows. Typically, we have more positive cases and a slightly low number. Icmr reported 732k tests, to which we can add 50k for the normal difference that we see. So for ~750k-780k tests numbers look low. Ap has fallen from 10k, maha from high of 12k to 8k.

[rajitghosh]

Where is @rajitghosh? Are some zones in Pune going to achieve herd immunity?

Here I am. In Pune discipline has gone for a toss. No masks, no social distancing and traffic back to near normal. 2 roads near my society are supposedly sealed off due to cases. One lane has been opened by the public by removing the bamboo poles so people are moving freely. Not sure of this herd immunity point yet. It may be too early to comment. This sero survey is happening but the sample may be too small to extrapolate. However numbers are definitely over reported. Dr. Bhagavan Pawar has reported about 5000 less and around 200 less deaths.
IT sector is working with 50% capacity. The auto companies are working. They find cases, sanitise limited areas, do some.contact tracing and keep working. Lot of workers claim they came in contact with the affected people as quarantine is like a paid holiday. Productivity suffers.
Last few days there have been good rains and weather is cold. Don't know if that is playing a role in the growth.

[Omkara]

On 15th August we had 63k cases from 808k tests. Compared to that we have roughly 750-780k tested today. Ap lower by 2k, bih 1k lower, Mah 3.5k lower, up 1k lower. Unless Karnataka blows out or wb, numbers are lower than Monday lows

[depleter]

Jay is a better judge to say that. I haven't looked into numbers in details for a few weeks now. To me todays numbers look a bit lower than usual Monday lows. Typically, we have more positive cases and a slightly low number. Icmr reported 732k tests, to which we can add 50k for the normal difference that we see. So for ~750k-780k tests numbers look low. Ap has fallen from 10k, maha from high of 12k to 8k.

On 15th August we had 63k cases from 808k tests. Compared to that we have roughly 750-780k tested today. Ap lower by 2k, bih 1k lower, Mah 3.5k lower, up 1k lower. Unless Karnataka blows out or wb, numbers are lower than Monday lows

AP still has 15% positivity and Mah at 19%. This is just negligence at the highest level. I doubt any state is doing contact tracing now....Atleast I know AP is completely a lost case.

[Omkara]

We are a "atamnirbhar" country or or running bhagwan bharose.

Without doing anything scientific both Bangladesh and Pakistan saw lowering of cases. The same can happen to us too. That's our last hope. Let's not give up on that.

[Omkara]

Both Karnataka and WB showed higher numbers.

So does Assam. Still overall numbers look good.

[jayakris]

@omkara (Sumanta) Isn't this the usual Monday low? (Sunday was low because Saturday was Independence day.)

Jay is a better judge to say that. I haven't looked into numbers in details for a few weeks now. To me todays numbers look a bit lower than usual Monday lows. Typically, we have more positive cases and a slightly low number. Icmr reported 732k tests, to which we can add 50k for the normal difference that we see. So for ~750k-780k tests numbers look low. Ap has fallen from 10k, maha from high of 12k to 8k.

Yes, today was lower than expected, even for a Monday. I expected a 56 to 58K total today.

Today's 54.3K results are from 729K tests, as per the states' reports. So we had a great positivity of 7.45% ...

We had 53K last Monday, but from 627K tests at 8.46% positivity. So, this was clearly a really good day.

[jayakris]

AP still has 15% positivity and Mah at 19%. This is just negligence at the highest level. I doubt any state is doing contact tracing now....Atleast I know AP is completely a lost case.

Yes. Maharashtra's case is simply negligence at the highest level.

It doesn't seem like AP ever did much contact tracing, except possibly around Vijawawada in Krishna district. That is why I had really complained way back about reckless testing in AP. Just sending the Sanjeevini buses all over the place to take samples but not following through. So they were getting great positivity, but once the cases started piling up, it was clear that there was no contact tracing going on. But the growth rate has rather drastically dropped in many districts in AP. At least today, there was bad growth only at the far end in Srikakulam and Vizianagaram (see my summary). We will see tomorrow, if we are down to only no more than 5-6 districts of trouble in AP... I hope we will be.

Kerala is still doing contact tracing, but it is of no use, as they find. They still list the number of people that they cannot trace the source for (Roughly 10 to 15% of the cases). I don't know if anybody else is able to do much contact tracing anywhere. It doesn't help much with this level of local transmission anyway.

Managing containment zones, and getting test results out quickly, are the main things to do now. I think Kerala, Punjab, and Odisha need to do more AG testing. Get the results out fast. Do RT-PCRs on negatives as much as you can.

What TN is doing is also almost criminal negligence. Not even getting AG kids and letting people take tests when they want, is really hurting the state. They should all be done by now, but places like Coimbatore are just not flattening properly. The positivity is not going up or anything on RT-PCR, but it is dropping only very slowly. I think these tests are running at capacity and I assume 2 (or even 3 day) delays are there. At least in TN, this is totally avoidable, knowing that they are capable of doing 70K RT-PCR a day.

Serious issues are cropping up in Punjab though. The deaths numbers went up from 10 or 15 to 25 and 30 and finally 50 today - all in a matter of 10 days or so. That is an indication that they have missed out on cases at the rate of 500 to 1000 per day for the last 20 days or so. Their testing numbers should have gone up by last week when they saw the deaths inching up, but that hasn't happened. I really hope they will add some 10K-20K AG tests per day this week. They need to.. Or this will get ugly in Punjab. Critical time. Need to slow down this growth or they will find 10 districts adding 3000 cases a day soon. Punjab is the only flash point I see right now. These things come up within a matter of days, and these guys need to be on their toes.

Maharashtra is bad, but there is a limit to how many cases can happen, even if the state is doing nothing, so MAH may not get much worse).

The nice rise in Bengaluru testing gives me good hope that it won't be too bad there for much longer. The state is about go flat, as most districts have reached the right levels of local transmission.

Everywhere else, things are OK.

But, overall, we are going really flat now. I sense that we may even start dropping. But let us see where we are by end of this week. The signs are good right now.

[Atithee]

Fake news? Fear mongers? Cheap publicity? Real stuff?

New Coronavirus Strain 'D614G' Detected in Malaysia, Said to Be '10 Times More Infectious'

https://www.india.com/viral/new-coronav ... s-4114067/

Regardless, I’m concerned if any vaccine can control more than one possible mutations.

[Atithee]

And the foreign press strikes again! It does cite an useful ratio of types of test.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/politi ... 582889.cms

[suresh]

It is Tuesday morning. Will Maharashtra report much higher numbers today? Will we cross 70K for the first time? Hopefully that doesn't happen.

[jayakris]

And the foreign press strikes again! It does cite an useful ratio of types of test.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/politi ... 582889.cms

Just bullshit. Disregard these posterior orifices in the press, especially the foreign press which has been out to make India look bad. None of them question the China statement that they did 90 million tests by June (all RT-PCR, I suppose. Yeah, right!). These foreign idiots don't even know that we did not start AG tests till about 4 weeks or so back (except in Delhi). They also don't know that we did NOT have any local disease spread in most parts of the country till very very late (end of May and some place in June/July). If we were testing so little -- that too at positivity under 6 and 7 percent till July -- and missed so many cases, where are all the deaths that should have happened? That is, if it had spread like it had done in Europe by the end of March itself like they all seem to think happened?

Places with honest officials (who are watched by a reasonably well-informed public) like Kerala were lying all along and must have had huge spread already and needed millions of tests? The fact is -- Kerala did not need even 5K more tests than they did, when the first wave of travelers got handled and there were zero cases for a week. And I don't think even ONE death from Covid has gone unreported in Kerala. And these people are saying India had spread everywhere all along? So tests per million population is the stat they would use? ... Just bullshit from people who don't have a clue and want to just attack India (or more like attack Modi, in most cases)

Russia has been running a ton of AG tests all along. Spain did, and many others did. Nobody wants to complain. When India does something, and that too after 4 months of only RT-PCR testing, and only when we simply couldn't find personnel to collect samples (not really lab capacity, which we really never reached) - then everybody wants to jump on India. It is our own Indians who badmouth the country. No other country's press does this bullshit. Anyway, ignore them, for our own mental peace

But ICMR should show the AG test and RT-PCR counts separately, though. That would be very useful.

[jayakris]

It is Tuesday morning. Will Maharashtra report much higher numbers today? Will we cross 70K for the first time? Hopefully that doesn't happen.

No. I guarantee ... We won't reach 70K Tuesday (unless we did over 950K tests Monday). More probably 65K.

[jayakris]

Fake news? Fear mongers? Cheap publicity? Real stuff?
New Coronavirus Strain 'D614G' Detected in Malaysia, Said to Be '10 Times More Infectious'
https://www.india.com/viral/new-coronav ... s-4114067/
Regardless, I’m concerned if any vaccine can control more than one possible mutations.

Fake. fear-mongering. It seems this was started by the Malaysia health minister, to pin the whole blame on a hapless Indian restaurant owner who returned and violated quarantine after turning negative (but he later turned positive, and should have stayed in 14-day quarantine after travel. The court placed a big fine on him and sent him to jail or something). 45 cases are traced to him at the restaurant, it seems.

Anyway, D614G has been the dominant strain in many part of the world like Europe since way back in February. There was another strain initially. It seems India had about half of our cases showing D614G in May itself.

Nothing new. Stunt. Fear-mongering, like you suspected. The vaccines being made are to handle this strain as well as the other strain, which apparently can be done as the spike protein is similar or some crap that I don't understand