Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

Amitabh Bachchan believes in homeopathy. Apparently Arsenicum Album 30 can do the job according to homeopathy.

[jayakris]

By the way, speaking of UP, don't forget that if it were a country by itself, the state would be the 8th most populous in the world (199 million). But it would be 45th in the world in Covid cases, and 41st in deaths. And at 1.12 million tests, UP's test positivity so far is 3.25%. That is better than in any of the top 10 countries (all above 125M people) including even Russia that is at 3.38% ... And close to 70% patients have recovered in UP too, which would be the highest among all those top 10-12 populous countries, except for Japan.

I think Modiji took some criticism for even mentioning how well UP was doing, when he talked in a BJP online rally. But in reality, he and his party could brag a lot more if they want (and I'm happy they haven't). In my opinion, the Indian press, due to the hatred for Yogi, have totally given UP's superb performance a skip.

[jayakris]

Amitabh Bachchan believes in homeopathy. Apparently Arsenicum Album 30 can do the job according to homeopathy.

But that is a bit of a slow long-term process to build immunity. Once you test positive, you better be ready to go into a regular hospital and get oxygen support if you get worse.

Has there been any studies that showed that it actually helps against Covid-19 specifically? It seems the Government had recommended Arsenicum Album 30 too.

[Atithee]

It’s been exactly one month since Jay started the daily numbers only update thread (actually a day more). The number grew from 309,603 to 879,447—a growth of 569,844 cases or 84%. The doubling rate has certainly accelerated in the last few days. I think most of us are not surprised to approach the 1M mark in a week or so; it’s the non-flattening that’s surprising. To me, the only surprise has been that the harsh summer temps didn’t have any significant impact on controlling the virus growth. I was certain it would. Sadly, it didn’t.

[jayakris]

Revisiting my predictions from 2 weeks ago (June 28), which was checked and revised in my post last Sunday (July 5):

But I have to raise the window slightly for next Sunday, as things did not slow down enough this past week.
Revised 7-day prediction for next Sunday (Jul12): 860K-880K
New 14-day (first) prediction for July 19th: 1050K-1100K (This is a bit of a brave/optimistic prediction!)
Expecting to cross 1 million around the 17th, as of now.

We fell just inside the upper limit of my prediction from last Sunday, with 879.5 K today. Phew... That was close
Still sticking to the prediction of 17th for 1 million, but won't be surprised if it gets pushed to 18th.
I will push up the 7-day prediction for next Sunday 19th slightly -- to 1080K to 1110K
New 14--day (first) prediction for July 26th Sunday -- 1315K to 1365K

[jayakris]

The doubling rate has certainly accelerated in the last few days.

Actually the doubling period is still getting longer. It was in the 19.5 day range last week but moved up to around 21 days now. I expect it to go to 23 or so next week. The daily additions are still linear, which means the doubling period will keep increasing, and the doubling rate is constantly reducing. It is just that this kind of painfully slow reduction isn't enough to reduce the active case total! That needs daily additions to come down. It needs to first stop the linear increase and go flat. That is just not happening.

I think most of us are not surprised to approach the 1M mark in a week or so; it’s the non-flattening that’s surprising. To me, the only surprise has been that the harsh summer temps didn’t have any significant impact on controlling the virus growth. I was certain it would. Sadly, it didn’t.

It probably does help in reducing or nearly eliminating outdoor infections and reducing even some non-ac indoor (or semi-indoor) infections in India, but Monsoons take away a lot of these advantages because the temperatures drop and people end up getting stuck in dry places without social distancing during rains.

But any hope we had for summer temperatures to be a deciding factor in our favor, is out the window... sadly, as you say.

[Atithee]

I meant it grew only 84% in one month (31 days), so doubling period in this interval is greater than 30 days. Compared to that, since it’s ~20 now, means it has accelerated in the recent half of the preceding 30 days.

[jayakris]

^^^ Actually the care total went from 309,603 to 879,447 which means it beccame 2.84 times bigger - so it more than doubled. I think you calculated it differently, but this is the correct calculation. In fact, in the next 30 days, if the current linear growth rate of daily cases holds, we will see only less than 2.84 times the growth, so the doubling rate is actually coming down. We were at about 3.9 to 4.1% daily growth rate a month ago, but we are at around 3.3 to 3.45% range now.
-----------------

ICMR testing update: 11,806,256 total... Sunday tests: 219,103, so it is a usal Sunday drop. Last week it was a drop by 25%... This Sunday about 22%.. But our case numbers may drop only 7 to 10% as we normally see on Mondays. Probably 27.5K or something. Lab Count Update: +6 to 1200.

Monday starts with a -666 in the Unassigned category. So maybe we will stay under +27K or even +26.5k tomorrow.

[suresh]

Has there been any studies that showed that it actually helps against Covid-19 specifically? It seems the Government had recommended Arsenicum Album 30 too.

Homeopathy has failed too many tests to be taken seriously ever. The 30 in Arsenic Album 30 refers to the amount of dilution. Just add water and you increase its potency.

[sameerph]

^^^ Actually the care total went from 309,603 to 879,447 which means it beccame 2.84 times bigger - so it more than doubled. I think you calculated it differently, but this is the correct calculation. In fact, in the next 30 days, if the current linear growth rate of daily cases holds, we will see only less than 2.84 times the growth, so the doubling rate is actually coming down. We were at about 3.9 to 4.1% daily growth rate a month ago, but we are at around 3.3 to 3.45% range now.

I have not checked but that I read that our growth rate of above 3% is highest among top 10 or so nations which is a concern.

[Atithee]

^^^ Actually the care total went from 309,603 to 879,447 which means it beccame 2.84 times bigger - so it more than doubled. I think you calculated it differently, but this is the correct calculation.

You’re right; I goofed up. Sorry about that.

[suresh]

Biggies numbers for today:

Andhra Pradesh: +1935
Tamil Nadu: +4328 (from 44560 tests -- remains under 10% positivity) [Chennai +1180 from 10048 tests (>11% positivity)]
Bihar: +1116

[Sin Hombre]

How many tests in BLR?

[Post moved from the update thread - Mod, Jay]

[jayakris]

How many tests in BLR?

Not sure of tests in BLR, but I think it is no more than 5 or 6K. The rest of the state is probably still under 8 percent or so in positivity but BLR may be over 20 or 25% now, for all we know. The cities are all screwed because we don't have enough healthcare personnel, and places like BLR didn't plan anything when they had all the time for 3 months. Same story everywhere.

EDIT: Found the BLR testing numbers in this weekly update bulletin (lots of details there). Exactly what I guessed. For the 6 days ending Saturday (6th thru 11th): 5042, 5113, 5042, 5453, 5732, 6206.

It is the same damn story everywhere. Only two cities in India have done it right. Both because Amit Shah got involved, or was asked for advice/help. Delhi and Guwahati. Both those places increased the testing when needed, with Antigen tests and extra personnel. Bengaluru should have started 10 days ago (actually with 3-4 days of finding 12 Covid deaths suddenly in one day). Now it is just testing when cases come in. Allowing the growth to go on and waiting for it to become Mumbai.

[jayakris]

ICMR Testing update: 12,092,503 total... Monday tests: 286,247... So Monday itself is back to the Sunday Saturday numbers (a bit more)... Stay under 29K for Tuesday, please... But my wishes are not getting granted these days ... Lab Count update: +6 to 1206. Not enough.

Tuesday starts with a -279 in the Unassigned category.