Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[rajitghosh]

Bajaj is in Aurangabad not Pune. Aurangabad is already under lockdown and they have reduced wages by 50%

[jayakris]

Let's be honest then; without a lockdown and knowing the apathy of state governments (who will blame the centre when things go wrong), we will have no peak in infections. Expect 50k cases/day by end of July and 100k/day by end of August assuming we can test that many.

Tough to say, but I don't see us growing much past 30 to 35K at the current linear rate of increase in daily additions. Neither do I see us getting more than 50-60K any time soon (if at all).

I look every which way I can, and I do not see enough urban areas in India to start growing fast enough to sustain the current linear growth in daily additions (after HYD and BLR get up to 4000+ together next week and have to hold due to testing limits). The Kolkata region is giving me some uncertainties, that's all.

In fact, we have recently got the best reasons to predict an inflection point in the daily additions graph to happen within even a week or so. Because Pakistan got their inflection point at around 4.5K and a peak at 6K, and then Bangladesh an inflection and 3K and a peak at 4K recently.

In relative population terms, the above thought on city areas also happens to match the inflection point in Pakistan and Bangladesh too (countries closest to our network structure, population-behavior, and Govt-efficiency patterns)... So it all may indicate an inflection point at around 30-35K per day for us next week sometime. Then I expect a peak daily additions somewhere around 40-45K, again similar to those two countries, probably by end of July or early August. Even as early as in 2 weeks.

We may not see a drop from that peak, or may see a flattening or minor drop and then even a second wave of VERY slow growth to 50-65K over a month or two though. More probably we will see the numbers drop slowly from the peak daily additions not much higher than 45K/day. We may see 30K/day again by mid August and 25K by end of August. Those are my current expectations.

Again, the primary reason for it is still the observation that we do not have too many urban areas left for quick growth. The Pakistan and Bangladesh data points added strength to my confidence in saying that.

[jayakris]

ICMR Testing Update: 11,307,002 total tests... Friday Tests: 282,511... About the same number as yesterday, so I hope we won't cross 28K tomorrow. Lab Count update: +11 to 1180

Saturday starts nicely with a -745 in the Unassigned category. Maybe we will stay under +28K today.

[jayakris]

Now Odisha, that was testing well all along, is running into a testing problem. Quite a bit of contact infections in the state. About 250 of the 755 cases today were from contacts and 500 from their quarantine centers (mostly migrant worker returnees and poor/slum are folks). And the 5000-6500 tests they have done per day in the past couple of weeks is beginning to be a bit less than needed. It is fine in the quarantine centers but much more of tracing and testing is needed in other areas if 250+ cases are surfacing elsewhere. Need 7 or 8K traced tests outside of quarantine centers in the community, not 2K or whatever they have been doing.

Add Odisha to West Bengal, in the list of states that worries me right now on the testing matter. Both need to double their testing rate. This kind of stuff happens over just a two week period. You blink, and you will see cases coming out of the woodwork like happening in the Parganas near Kolkata.

[Omkara]

Bajaj is in Aurangabad not Pune. Aurangabad is already under lockdown and they have reduced wages by 50%

They have a plant in chakkan and also in Pimpri Chinchwad (more ,r&d) centre

[sameerph]

Again, the primary reason for it is still the observation that we do not have too many urban areas left for quick growth. The Pakistan and Bangladesh data point added strength to my confidence in saying that.

That is provided it does not spread too much in rural areas. Currently, we have more than 60% of population living in rural areas. And I heard reports recently of cases happening in villages too mainly from people from urban areas going there post unlock.

[rajitghosh]

They have a plant in chakkan and also in Pimpri Chinchwad (more ,r&d) centre

I thought you meant their problematic plant. Chakan and Akurdi (in Pimpri Chinchwad) haven't officially reported any cases. I think Akurdi office is mostly closed and people are working from home.

[Omkara]

I know their problematic plant is Aurangabad. The MD won't close the plant. Let's see how that progresses. Any closed door structure, with air circulation is causing higher infections.

[rajitghosh]

Thanks to the Aurangabad lockdown the Bajaj plant there is closed. Workers have been told they'll get 50% pay. Rajiv Bajaj continues.to say on the press that the lockdown was not necessary.
Basically what I heard from some contacts is that in the assembly line as the engine or vehicle moves multiple hands keep touching it. So if one infected person touches if all those who are downstream on the line catch the infection.

[jayakris]

I know their problematic plant is Aurangabad. The MD won't close the plant. Let's see how that progresses. Any closed door structure, with air circulation is causing higher infections.

People are still not getting the point on closed air circulation indoor areas. Even social distancing may not help much. ICMR had some guidelines on this which were at least a starting point, but the local authorities are not enforcing things at Indian factories (they all get baksheees, after all, and are in bed with them).

The problem is not just in India. Here is the CNN news yesterday Los Angeles Apparel factory ordered closed after over 300 coronavirus cases and 4 deaths

Basically what I heard from some contacts is that in the assembly line as the engine or vehicle moves multiple hands keep touching it. So if one infected person touches if all those who are downstream on the line catch the infection.

Aha! Thanks for that info. I think I had had guessed and mentioned it, some pages ago here. That any conveyor belt operation could be a problem.

[jayakris]

Meanwhile, here.we.go.... Complete lockdown in Bengaluru Urban and Rural districts from 8 pm on 14th July to 5 am on 23rd July in view rising #COVID19 cases. Essential services exempted: Karnataka Chief Minister's Office (CMO) (ANI tweet)

Do we really think they will do anything useful with this? More probably they will just waste time doing things that don't need a lockdown, or doing nothing and watching Mahabharata on TV.

[suresh]

Mah +8139 today.

[jayakris]

And a +8139 in Maharashtra. This is just getting ridiculous. How incompetent is Uddhav? I mean, why do you let the problems that got tackled in some places keep on rise in other places. Coordinate stuff, test poperly, get your district leaders talking to each other, move some resources. Whatever.

We will never get a peak or anything in India as long as this blockhead is running the state of Maharashtra. This is utter bullshit.

I mean, I was so patient, giving him all benefit of doubt, for being inexperienced, for being honest and all that. But at this point, none of those excuses wash. And I like the guy. He is jut not getting the job done. At all.

No way for places like Kalyan-Dombivli and Thane should be rising with no end at this point with 6 and 7 percent growth rate, 4 months into the process.

So depressing.

[Omkara]

Udhav .. enough support to you ....

My colleague stays in Dombivali. His mom tested positive. She works in a sbi branch (closed door, circulated air).

Why do you need branches open when ATMs and online banking works super smooth?

[suresh]

I am mystified as to how Mumbai numbers came down but the same couldn't be replicated in Thane.