Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

This is a place where you can enter any non-sports general topics
User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

KAR with a good +67 today from 8.2K tests today. Great! I was a bit worried seeing a sudden +149 with the 71 migrant cases in Mandya. Looks like that was from a particularly bad set of trains from Mumbai.

+1308 so far. All the biggies to come.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Speaking of Delhi, I was stunned by what the Indian Express said in this article - "At present, 10 private hospitals and six government hospitals in Delhi are designated to treat Covid-19 suspected and confirmed cases. Of the total 1,779 people admitted in the hospitals, 943 Covid-19 positive patients are admitted to the six government hospitals and 413 in six private hospitals, as per the data provided by the state government in its health bulletin. At least 2,261 people are under home quarantine."

Really? 1779 are admitted in hospitals for Covid-19 in Delhi? There are 5720 active cases there. 30% are hospitalized? That is VERY high. I hope not. Hopefully the newspaper made a mistake and said "are admitted" but instead these are total admissions so far out of 11K cases. But even that, at 15% is a bit too high for India.

Karnataka, who test at a very high rate like TN and UP, said in their release today that out of 864 active cases, the ones in ICU are just 15. That means probably 50 to 75 people at best are in hospitals at somewhere around a 7 or 8% hospitalization rate. That is where things should be.


shibi
Member
Member
Posts: 1022
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by shibi »

Admitted in the hospital doesn't imply that all of them need critical care. Kerala admits all Covid positive cases & even people with covid like symptoms before receiving the results. Different States must be using different criteria.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

shibi wrote: Wed May 20, 2020 1:00 pmAdmitted in the hospital doesn't imply that all of them need critical care. Kerala admits all Covid positive cases & even people with covid like symptoms before receiving the results. Different States must be using different criteria.
Of course. I didn't say that they need critical care, Shibi. But admitting every case to hospitals is not possible in big cities, unlike in Kerala. So, Kerala numbers don't apply to Delhi or Mumbai. If they have 30% in hospitals, these are 30% case that are fully symptomatic cases and actually need hospital care. But you are right that Delhi could be doing a really good job and admitting twice or thrice as many people as the ones who really need to be admitted to hospitals. I doubt it though :) ... I was suspecting that if 1700 are in hospitals, then probably they have found only 1/4th of the actual cases (due to poor tracing/testing) and that there could be 15K active cases in Delhi out of which the 1700 that really need hospital care must be the ones in the hospitals.

I was saying that those admitted to hospital from among active cases should normally be under about 15 percent, and then those in critical care probably 1/4th or 1/6th of it. Those seem to be the Indian rates, at least in places where people take care of business in a timely manner. That is why I said Karnataka probably has some 50 to 75 in hospitals if they have 15 in critical care. But I haven't seen the total number in KAR in hospitals. They may have 500 in hospitals out of 830 active cases while having 15 in critical care.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

But then again, here are a group of "admitted" Covid patients in Mumbai. They seem to be having a jolly good time, playing Anthakshari. The more I read about what is going on in India, the more I feel that we are in pretty good shape, thanks to some immunity that Indians have. These are not the kind of stories that we hear from admitted patients in the US and Europe.


Rajiv
Member
Member
Posts: 2582
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 7:26 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Hong Kong

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by Rajiv »

Oh My God... that is my Alma Mater, Antonio Da Silva High School

Spent 11 wonderfull years of my life out there, and that is our Assembly Hall built in 1933 with wooden flooring and Fans.imported from Sheffield UK.

Thank you Jay for posting this and going to inform my Batch Mates , spread around the Globe


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

+743 in TN... 11,894 tests and 6.25 positivity... But a good number is from a targeted population of returnees laborers, so a higher positivity is fine.

+2081 with MAH, GUJ, UP, more RAJ, etc to come


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Rajiv wrote: Wed May 20, 2020 1:48 pm Oh My God... that is my Alma Mater, Antonio Da Silva High School.. Spent 11 wonderfull years of my life out there, and that is our Assembly Hall built in 1933 with wooden flooring and Fans.imported from Sheffield UK. Thank you Jay for posting this and going to inform my Batch Mates , spread around the Globe
Oh, that's nice! What are the odds to find your school as a a key Covid care center, and to find the happiest Covid patients anywhere in the world, right there?


User avatar
suresh
Member
Member
Posts: 6520
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 12:08 pm
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Chennai, IN

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by suresh »

I agree that tests per million in isolation is not a good number. That should be combined with other data such as percentage of positives etc. to get a better picture. But a comparison between TN and Maharashtra which have large populations (7.6 crores vs 12.2 crores) is not off. Of course, Mumbai is different from any place in India.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

Punjab seems to have slammed the door shut on Covid once again. They have had two flare-ups. The first was that spiritual guru who did a minor spread. The next was a big one from the Nanded cases. Punjab had only a +3 today. They have been doing some 2000+ tests lately. The state bulletin says, "Active cases: 173, On oxygen support: NIL, On ventilator: 1" ... That is just nice to see. Remember just 10 days ago when they had found 1500 cases in 10 days? Looks like 95% of all those 1500 people have already recovered. Great.

They had traced and called back people who had been allowed to go home after returning from Nanded and got them tested early before any issues started. The kind of thing Kerala and some other places do. Well done, Punjab. Hope for no second infections to trickle in now.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

+142 in WB... They have got 137, 147 and 142 the last three days. That is from significantly increasing test numbers too... Okay, I know, it may be rasagola testing, but still, they are doing at least that... unlike Mumbai that seems too lost to even go get free coffee somewhere and test... WB has gone up from 5000 tests a day to 9000 tests a day in one week flat!! Go Mamata Bannerji :notworthy: You are fast becoming the "banner lady" for testing :)

+398 in GUJ... But another 30 deaths. Come on, Mr. Rupani. Do something about this crap.

+2664 in india.... I think we will be under +5500 today. Maybe even under +5000... Well no... Here comes Maharashtra!

+2161 in MAH today, to reach 39,297. 65 deaths.
+73 in J&K
+27 in TEL
+270 in MP

+5195 in India, with UP, and extra RAJ to come.


rajitghosh
Member
Member
Posts: 673
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:04 am
Antispam: No
Please enter the middle number: 5

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by rajitghosh »

Mamata has a bigger problem in hand with Cyclone Amphan. From reports that are coming there is significant damage especially in Calcutta. Orissa also saw some damage.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

+1189 to 23935 in Mumbai (but BMC says +1372 to 23935). 41 deaths.
So, about 1000 cases in MAH today are from outside of Mumbai.

Today's update of tests is 3,07,072 total. It was 2,93,998 yesterday. So they raised it a bit to 13,074 today. The positivity dropped to 16.5% today, after the 19% yesterday. Okay, we want to see the numbers go up a 1500 to 2000 every day.

RAJ's night update is a +63 and it's a +170 for the day.

+5184 with UP to come.


shibi
Member
Member
Posts: 1022
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by shibi »

jayakris wrote: Wed May 20, 2020 1:14 pm
Of course. I didn't say that they need critical care, But you are right that Delhi could be doing a really good job and admitting twice or thrice as many people as the ones who really need to be a
admitted to hospitals. I doubt it though :)
Jay, probably you are right. There was a report that Bihar has found 26% of the migrant labour from Delhi infected.


User avatar
jayakris
Moderators
Moderators
Posts: 27415
Joined: Mon Dec 16, 2002 7:24 am
Please enter the middle number: 1
Location: Irvine, CA, USA

Re: Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by jayakris »

shibi wrote: Wed May 20, 2020 4:14 pmThere was a report that Bihar has found 26% of the migrant labour from Delhi infected.
Not 26% of the migrants who returned from Delhi, which would be in 10s of thousands. Probably 26% of the migrants they screened for illness symptoms.

That is, a lot of people have temperature due to all kinds of other illnesses like common cold, ear/throat infections etc (and would all be tested) and only a small fraction is from Covid, even among people who come from Covid affected cities. The test positivity from this kind of screened populations is usually 5 to 15%, at our Indian rates of spread of Covid in the infected areas (500 to 1000 per million people, while non-Covid illnesses could be 10 to 20 times as many people, like 10K in a million, or 1 sick person per 100 -- that is 10 or 15 sick people in a Shramik train of migrants... 1 or 2 should be Covid, but in the trains they had from Delhi, maybe they had 4 or 5 per train!).

Delhi's current rate of infection is 11K in 19 million, so if we are seeing 26% of the sick people among the screened migrants to have Covid, that would imply that the true infection in Delhi could be about 2 or 3 times. Now, it is usually 1.5 to 2.5 times anyway because of the folks who are yet to show any symptoms. So, Delhi probably should be finding about twice as many cases than they currently are finding. That matches with the 7% positivity they have, while they should be testing twice as many and catching all these people with a 5% positivity.

I know, those are a whole set of confusing numbers... Trust me, they are all the ball the ballpark of reality :)