Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

[suresh]

. But with online ordering and deliveries still not working I may have to go out to get groceries. I think same may be true for others and even that may be a trigger for rush at the grocery shops and hence may cause the spread.

Go to the nearest grocery store and do your shopping. In most stores, they are only allowed a small number of people at a given point in time. So you will have to wait in a queue and for a change, no one will be breathing down your neck and cutting ahead of you.

[jayakris]

I think suddenly the speed of confirmed cases is increasing. I think there are 128 more cases in less than 24 hours. Somehow it is not looking good. I am in Bangalore and have not gone out at all for last 2 weeks.

No, don't worry, SaniaFan. These are still not "spread cases". Kerala added 39 cases today. 25 are people who came from Dubai and 13 are immediate contacts infected by them (One is yet to be traced). It is the same for most of the rest of 127 added today at Covid19india.org. This just means that a lot more people got infected 8 to 10 ago from abroad. Not that anything "spread" in Kerala. It just so happened that a whole bunch of Kasarkot people got infected in the Middle East where more and more people were getting infected per day 8 to 10 days ago.

This kind of growth in cases will continue for another few days. Seemingly at a rate of 14 to 18 percent. I think there was some lags due to transportation delays etc during the Sunday through Tuesday period when everything started shutting down, and it showed up as a drop in the rate in the last 3 days. It is a 16% growth rate over the last 4 days rather than about a 14% that I thought we were on. Out of 862 cases in India, about 600 or so are still those who came from abroad. The number of infected people in that group were going up at around 20+ percent abroad. As they have not infected as many others in India as the rate abroad, we are seeing only a 16 percent total growth. Like I said, it will continue at least another 5 or 6 days and then the effect of the airlines shutting down will kick in (nobody from abroad to add), and a couple of days later the lockdown effect. By when we will see how much of community spread is happening, and where they are flaring.

Don't panic. None of those local spreads are going to continue uncontrolled for too long like happened in Europe and the USA. If we are testing a lot now through next week and stopping flares all over, like at Kasarkot, Sangli, etc, we will be just fine by middle of next week and we can look into the "purely Indian" spread.

But with online ordering and deliveries still not working I may have to go out to get groceries. I think same may be true for others and even that may be a trigger for rush at the grocery shops and hence may cause the spread.

There still no evidence, even after 862 cases, that even ONE case of a Covid infection has happened in a grocery line or crowd. May be 1 or 2 out of the 5 or 6 suspicious cases may have got it because somebody sneezed on them, but we would've seen a lot of cases of people coming to hospitals with Covid symptoms ad breathing problems if that kind of crowd-driven spreads have happened in the last 15 days. I may be wrong, but it is not that infectious at all in moving crowds. Be in the vicinity of an infected person at the same spot long enough, and you have a chance to get it. Not the case in Indian grocery crowd. We don't have even 1 in 100,000 people who are carrying the virus, even in Mumbai or Kasarkot (I can guarantee that). Just relax

[jayakris]

Man, it is so irritating to see Indian scribes writing bullshit for all kinds of foreign media like LA Times, NY times, Reuters, CNN, BBC, and so on. I don't think any other country's news writers write so much negative stuff (even when the country's people - like all the police and healthcare workers are running around moving heaven and earth) for their foreign outlets. If a foreigner correspondent in India is writing it, you actually get a more balanced view, but the Indians working for foreign news outlets are such anti-national bastards who don't care a hoot about the damage it does for the country.

[jayakris]

From earlier today (Friday) - Third death in Karnataka due to COVID-19; Death toll in India now at 19

According to officials, the lab results of the 60-year-old deceased came later in the night on Thursday, however the patient died on Friday morning. Explaining the patient's travel, Kumar said, "Patient 60 traveled from Tumakuru on March 5th to New Delhi with 13 people in Sampark Kranthi train in coach S-6. On the 7th of March at 3:00 pm, he reached Delhi's Hazrat Nizamuddin Station and took a taxi to Jamia Masjid for an event." From March 7th to March 11th, according to district officials, they all stayed at Jamia Masjid. Due to a paucity of space, the group stayed in a nearby lodge. On March 11th, he left Delhi at around 9:00 am in Kongu Express' S-9 coach. On March 14th, he reached Yeshwanthpur at 12.30 am. He took a KSRTC bus to Chitradurga. Early in the morning on 14th March, he reached Sira and stayed at home for the next few days. On March 18th, he developed fever and cough which were COVID-19 symptoms. On March 19th, at 6 pm he visited a private hospital's OPD. On 21st March, he visited a doctor at a private clinic in Sira, then a diagnostic centre. An x ray was taken and so was the blood test. He was referred to Tumakuru's district hospital. On March 23rd, at 3 pm he visited the OPD at Tumakuru DH and returned to Sira. At 10 am he left the district hospital against medical advice and visited a private hospital in Tumakuru. Here a staff nurse had inserted an IV cranula and put an oxygen mask on the patient. A laboratory technician collected the blood sample a technician took an x ray and referred him back to the district hospital in Tumakuru. On March 24th, at 2 pm, he was admitted to an isolation ward and his sample was taken. But he passed away three days later on Friday morning

This is the kind of stuff going on. Once again, a patient with a religious connection. Yet again a patient who left from the hospital.

But this means a community transmission happened at the Jamia Masjid or the nearby lodge (or they may connect it to some infected foreign arrival who was there). But it happened around the 10th, some 17 days ago and we are finding out now. Look at the delay that can happen. 8 days delay for symptoms, some 14 days to take a test, 16 days for results, and 17 days for death. This is why even a 2 week lockdown would not be enough for us to trace test and isolate.

[jayakris]

The youngest in India - 10-month-old tests positive for Covid-19 in Karnataka's Mangalore
Admitted on the 23rd, sample taken as a SARI patient by the hospital by the 24th, test results back by 27th. Pretty quick turnaround in India, as opposed to the 6 to 10 days it is taking in the USA now. Hope the little one gets well soon; it would be so tough to see a small baby gasping for breath.

[jayakris]

886 seems to be today's late night figure, as at Covid19india.org. About 160 new cases. Though that sounds scary, it is also good news. That means a lot of samples are going in for testing. I would rather see some big jumps in the numbers now, than later!!

The PMO's office (cabinet secretay) sent a letter to the states today in a bit of a harsh tone, that they need to get their act together on tracking international travelers who came in. Some states have done particularly bad and let a lot of people go out of the tracking net, it seems. The states were not mentioned but one we all know of. Punjab. It seems a lot of Punjabis walked out of airports, went home, and are not quarantining themselves. I think another state that is not tracking all that well could be Karnataka, based on a few reports of arguments among ministers and all that crap. But I think a lot of states have done pretty well too.

Meanwhile, it is really sad to hear of the plight of the migrant workers all around the country. Having hardly a place to go to, and having no transport to go even if they had a place. Walking dozens of miles on foot, out of food, and getting abused and even beaten up by the police. Sad.

[jayakris]

Yet another case of a religious start. The punjab situation - India 'super spreader' quarantines 40,000 people

Indian authorities in the northern state of Punjab have quarantined around 40,000 residents from 20 villages following a Covid-19 outbreak linked to just one man.. The 70-year-old died of Coronavirus - a fact found out only after his death.. The man, a preacher, had ignored advice to self quarantine after returning from a trip to Italy and Germany, officials told BBC Punjabi's Arvind Chhabra.
...
The man, identified as Baldev Singh, had visited a large gathering to celebrate the Sikh festival of Hola Mohalla shortly before he died.. The six-day festival attracts around 10,000 people every day.. A week after his death, 19 of his relatives have tested positive.

Now we have a Sikh preacher (may he be blessed, waheguru) who is a super-spreader in a huge religious event. Holy God, must people be punished so much for praying? I guess the answer is an unequivocal Yes, from God, to all religions!

But again, I am so glad to see us catching some of these community flares and getting down to measures like quarantining. That is a luxury that only very few countries have, as they all reacted too late. We may not do it all well, but we at least try!

Fire-fighting is the nature of our battle from now on.

[jayakris]

Meanwhile bullshit keeps on coming from Indian-sounding journalists in the western press

Chaos and hunger amid India coronavirus lockdown (Akash Bisht, Al Jazeera)
The Callousness of India’s COVID-19 Response (Vidya Krishnan, Atlantic Magazine)

Why are there so many lowlifes among the writers from India?

[Atithee]

They’re hired with an agenda to crate an authenticity factor.

And the insistence on calling BJP as the Hindu nationalist government. No other government is called an Christian or Muslim government.

[jayakris]

They’re hired with an agenda to crate an authenticity factor. And the insistence on calling BJP as the Hindu nationalist government. No other government is called an Christian or Muslim government.

Well, I don't worry about the "Hindu nationalist party" or "Hindu nationalist government" stuff. That is what BJP is, depending on how you define the phrase. Well, if the world wants to call a spade a spade, and call a majority Indians "Hindu Nationalists" (because Indian citizens are the ones who elected the current government with an overwhelming majority), so be it! Because, damnit, a majority of Indians are Hindus and they are "Nationalists" (whatever that means. Standing "for the nation", as opposed to "extra-national interests" I suppose).

I am fine if anybody calls me a Hindu Nationalist. I am a Hindu and I'm for the nation. Unlike many Indians feel, there really isn't a negative connotation to it, unless we act like there is. It is like China reacting to the "Chinese virus" thing. If they didn't react to it, it would've gone away as a non-racist thing, like German measles or Spanish flu. Once you react to it, people actually start looking at it like there is a problem. Now it looks like China feels guilty about it! Indian Hindus don't need to act guilty like they have committed some crime. No Jew in Israel acts like that when he is called a "Jewish Nationalist", I think.

I don't give a hoot if they take us for a Hindu country, just like Israel is taken as a Jewish country, or Malaysia as a Muslim country. If our constitution is changed to give special preference to Hindus, I will object, because that is not what Hinduism teaches me. But we haven't. So for what must Hindus feel guilty? So, yeah, "Hindu Nationalist Party" is fine with me as a name for the party that I lean more towards (not always). [EDIT: Heck, our country has been called "Hindusthan" for a long time]

I object only when they say that Hindus are particularly more intolerant than the religious majorities that rule those other countries. Because Hindus are not, and on the contrary have always been unquestionably more tolerant than the people of any other religion of non-Indian origin.

But I don't think most of these journalist worms are only anti-BJP people hired for the hit job. Many (most) of them have been very much anti-India in their reports even when Manmohan Singh was the PM, and he did a lot of good things too. They are just leftists, mostly. On top of that, they are selfish too, because many of them think that they will be taken seriously by their foreign counterparts only if they are being the "coscience of the society" and the "4th estate that screams" and all that. Then they get invited for journalists symposia abroad, get nominated for Pulitzer and all those things. Just selfish interests, and they sell out India for that.

But some are indeed the "hired guns" procured by some foreign vested interests with some agendas, like you day. Some are hired by anti-BJP forces in India as well.

[jayakris]

If you want a good story by an Indian from America, here is one - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/cor ... paredness/ (I need a folded-hands emoji to give this lady!)

[depleter]

2500 tests in one day is no where enough. Though low no of tests can be understood at one time but not now. The total no of number of labs has increased from 51 last week to some 133 right now.
https://covid.icmr.org.in/index.php/testing-facilities

In 2 days another 22labs are added. So, we have 155 labs now, 111 - Gov and 44 Private.

[Varma]

...I need a folded-hands emoji to give this lady!

Me too! What a brilliant write up!

For a change, police are being so overwhelmingly good. There are numerous WhatsApp videos floating around, not only of their beating people up but also offering counselling and educating people. In one instance, a Dubai returnee of Khandavalli village (in my home district of West Godavari, Andhra) refused to obey quarantine instructions and started roaming around the village. When the villagers objected, even his parents started to abuse them back saying he is completely healthy. The word has gotten to the police and the SI got so mad that he beat the crap of out this guy, and his dad, Even his mom who was supporting got one single beating from the SI. Eventually the NRI and his parents were all forced into isolation. You can talk about human rights and all, but if this guy turns out to be positive, there will be so many other innocent villagers who will have contracted it for no fault of theirs. Later that day the SI had addressed the villagers about why he had to resort to what he did and said, "I know most of the villagers are uneducated farmers and field workers. They are worried about their livestock and crops, but if you don't practice social distancing it will kill you. The police are working so hard to educate you and force you to follow government's instructions that we get time to eat only one meal per day....", and so on. The next day he was suspended from his duties, but eventually the suspension was lifted.

- Varma

[suresh]

It is a mixed bag with respect to the police. I believe most cops are indeed trying to do their duty and have to encounter Indians who think that the law is for others (or losers). That doesn't mean all brutality must be condoned in fell swoop. In Varma's case, the suspension was revoked for the right reason. Cops also tend to profile people -- I am reasonably sure that they wouldn't lathi charge a (random) guy in a car but some poor guy walking on the street would be an easy target. Migrants walking hundreds of kilometres to get home have also been targeted.

[Varma]

I agree, Suresh. Parts of my post was not well phrased which made it sound like I am supporting the brutality of police in all cases. Some of them clearly seem to show their attitude that they can.

- Varma