Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

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sameerph
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Coronavirus SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19)

Post by sameerph »

Moving a bunch of posts we had in the Tokyo Olympics thread to a separate thread here, on the Coronavirus issue... Mod, Jay
Sin Hombre wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:02 am Given our history, we have our best ever prospects in Tokyo and the Olympics may just get cancelled.
Yes,that is becoming a real fear now with virus spreading. But if at all it should get postponed, why cancel unless it becomes so grave that it lasts till end of the year.


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arjun2761
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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by arjun2761 »

Good chance that the virus spreading will reduce once it gets warmer in the next two months...


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre »

Cases are accelerating very quickly in the US this weekend.

Lots of countries (including the US with Trump discarding it completely) have been very lax in testing and containment, unlike China (as it turns out was quarantining cities for good reason) and South Korea.

I think there is a 20% chance that the Olympics will get postponed or cancelled.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jayakris »

There is a chance of a postponement, but more probably, the Coronavirus issue may drastically get under control in another 6 weeks when temperature goes up everywhere - as Arjun said above. Really, I don't think very much of transmission has happened in warmer temperatures (above 65 F or 18 C) so far, though CDC and others continue to not say that temperature has had an effect. From my uneducated little research, the only observation I see is that I don't think there have been many (if any) transmissions in temperature-controlled high-volume airports etc either. I found research papers that show that other airborne human Coronavirus had significantly lower half-life at higher temperatures (papers from as far back as 1985) - like 30 times longer half-life when it is around 45 F compared to 65 F. True flare-ups outside of China have been in Daegu, Teheran and Northern Italy, where temperatures have gone below 50 F (10 C) during day-time when people are in contact with each other (not late night, that is). I would've expected a lot more secondary transmission (out of people who had contacts with Wuhan) in places like Taiwan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore, India etc. But none of those places have gone under 65 F.

Too early to say, but Trump may have been right when he said on Feb 10th that "some people think this will go away when the hats comes on in April". Maybe he said it out of being clueless but only he has really gone on record talking about this angle, strangely.

Anyway, we will wait and see.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre »

That's what I am hoping too that warm weather will kill the contagion.

As far as secondary transmissions go, the likes of Philippines and India are not testing anyone so no one really knows. Singapore in particular have seen secondary transmissions but it is an authoritarian city state with a very disciplined population and they have taken extremely good measures for containment (which can't be replicated anywhere).

Kuwait which is averaging 20+C during daytime will shed more light, lots of infected people returning from Iran and they have shutdown a lot of parts of Kuwait.


As far as the Olympics go, keep in mind that a lot of qualification events are scheduled for the next couple of months.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by sameerph »

Yes, wrestling Asian qualification which was shifted from China to Kyrzygastan is now canceled from there too. United world wrestling is struggling now to find a venue for conducting this.

Boxing Asian qualifiers though are going ahead in Jordan from March 3.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jayakris »

Sin Hombre wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:59 pmAs far as secondary transmissions go, the likes of Philippines and India are not testing anyone so no one really knows.
Not sure if that is true. India has tested over 1600 suspected cases as of couple of days ago (as opposed to only 500 or so in the US). I think about 800-1000 of them were people evacuated from Wuhan and the cruise ship in Japan, but we have tested some 600+ others who showed similar symptoms. The three cases of Wuhan returnees from 4 weeks ago in Kerala (all 3 have been discharged now), and the 16 positives from ship (all are stable as of now), are still the only positive cases. As yet there is no report of secondary infections. Considering the number of travelers who came from Asia (and China in particular) since January, and with so many international airports that people with possible symptoms may have slipped through, not to mention Indians having a lot of close-quarter people-interactions in our crowded cities/markets/trains/temples, one would think that something would've flared up somewhere by now. Thankfully, not yet. That surprises me.

Perhaps we have just been lucky, and maybe there is no temperature/humidity effect. So let's pray to God that nothing starts off now, though. I don't think we are really prepared to handle anything like what happened in S. Korea or Italy/Iran.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 »

Warm weather may not stop the coronavirus spread. Experts say.

But maybe we will have coronavirus already spread everywhere and then we will live with the risk and keep traveling? I have no clue about this one.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre »

prasen9 wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:31 pm But maybe we will have coronavirus already spread everywhere and then we will live with the risk and keep traveling? I have no clue about this one.
Eventually in 3-4 years when we have developed herd immunity.

Right now, it is too dangerous for older people and those with comorbidities.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by prasen9 »

Sin Hombre wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:49 pm Eventually in 3-4 years when we have developed herd immunity.

Right now, it is too dangerous for older people and those with comorbidities.
True. But, older people and those with compromised immune systems may not participate in the Olympics. So, it should go ahead. But, there is also a lot of hysteria and blanket travel bans, etc. While travel bans to China and maybe S. Korea or Iran make sense now, at some point, we should make evidence-based decisions. I think the Olympics will go on.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jayakris »

prasen9 wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:31 pmWarm weather may not stop the coronavirus spread. Experts say.
But notice that none of them categorically says that it does NOT have an effect. "We don't know; we haven't had hot weather" is basically what they are saying! But the evidence is overwhelming that it has not seriously spread or had a flare-up (like in Korea, Iran, Italy) in places where most human contacts are all at temperatures above 65 F (18 C). Like in India, Thailand, Philippines, Taiwan, Africa, etc.

In fact I have found several medical research articles that clearly demonstrate the effect of temperature and humidity on other Coronavirus strains (229E, SARS, MERS etc). The social interaction differences from country to country, night-time outings, etc (also the prevalence or lack of air-conditioning in large spaces) have made the research difficult, but Corovirus 229-E, for instance, has been shown to survive 30 times longer at around 45 F in lower humidity (4-5 days) than at 65 F in higher humidity (2-3 hours). There are cases like SARS spreading in S.Arabia in summer, but there were other reasons guessed for it, IIRC.

I find it rather irresponsible for the medical research community to not make the point that people, as a precaution, should avoid contacts (getting more than a 2 meters near strangers and in crowded places) at low temperatures and low humidity. Also that anybody with a possibility of having an infection should stay away from people if the temperature is under 15 deg C or something. Maybe the authorities don't have full evidence, but putting this information out there, even if it is unfounded, might significantly help. "Just don't get out and get near too many people if it is under 20 C temperature" should be the rule, even if it is proven right or wrong later. It can't even hurt much. That would not prevent most economically productive activities, as they are never done in temperatures under 15 or 20 C anyway!!


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Atithee »

To me, this should be an eye opener for the world. The entire world supply chain can simply not be concentrated in one place. Thoughts?


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by arjun2761 »

jayakris wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:56 am
prasen9 wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:31 pmWarm weather may not stop the coronavirus spread. Experts say.
But notice that none of them categorically says that it does NOT have an effect. "We don't know; we haven't had hot weather" is basically what they are saying! But the evidence is overwhelming that it has not seriously spread or had a flare-up (like in Korea, Iran, Italy) in places where most human contacts are all at temperatures above 65 F (18 C). Like in India, Thailand, Philippines, Taiwan, Africa, etc.
Yes, the quoted article is mostly garbage in that all it says is that this is a new virus and hence we don't anything about it for sure. Genome wise, the COVID 19 is closest to SARS and the flu virus both of which don't propagate as well in warmer weather, so it's quite likely that its propagation may also slow down in the summer although of course we'll only find out for sure after the summer. BTW, CDC now states that COVID 19 it is primarily propagating person-to-person, so stay away from those coughing and sneezing in your vicinity especially if you are in a colder climate. :-)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ssion.html


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by jayakris »

Finally! I was just going mad, seeing CDC not saying something precise about person-to-person transmission. Irresponsible. They still have not said anything about cold weather.

Can you believe that the LAX airport is STILL not doing any screening of passengers coming from Korea? My wife came on a a flight three days ago from India via Singapore and walked out in 20 minutes. Not even a temperature check. Nobody asked her anything, and there was no difference. She noticed no boards. No leaflets given. Nothing, nada, none, zilch. I just could not believe it. A whole month after we knew that this was getting real bad, and a whole two weeks after uncontrolled flare-ups in Italy, Iran, Korea, etc. Are you kidding me? The U.S. is so unprepared that I cannot believe it.


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Re: Tokyo Olympics 2020 projections

Post by Sin Hombre »

The Trump admin can't admit they made a mistake so underprepared the US will be. Hopefully we get to warmer climates before things get worse.