US elections (Did you know this? The Doc ????)

[PKBasu]

Since I was kid of 12, I have been fascinated and transfixed by US presidential races. This year, I feel less involved in the process than at any time since 1976, but I can't stay completely out of it -- despite a thoroughly uninspiring Republican field, and a fairly boring one on the Democratic side (apart from the undoubtedly inspirational Barack Husain Obama, whose earlier book, "Dreams from my Father", I bought several months ago). I heard Obama speak at the last Democratic convention four years ago, and knew immediately that he was one for the future -- although I must say (given American racial prejudices) I am astonished at just how far he has come in recent months.

But the truly astonishing rise is that of the other Arkansan (ie, other than the Clintons!), Mike Huckabee. I will give credit to The Economist, which flagged his potential about two months ago with a big story long before anyone else had noticed him. Listening to him speak after his Iowa triumph, I was struck by his inclusive message (a right-winger speaking with empathy for the poor, able to talk about reaching out to Muslims, Jews and others in his state after 9/11, etc.) although his central proposal (to abolish the income tax, and replace it with a national sales tax) will be a hugely regressive fiscal measure (i.e., reducing taxes on high income earners, and imposing new taxes on the poor). He undoubtedly has real charisma, though, and his insurgent campaign could go quite far despite his lack of funding. (I rather like Romney, but he was always going to be in trouble because of his Mormonism and relatively liberal social positions, which will not play well with Republican primary voters; to me Giuliani is an utter fraud, and I'm glad he is sinking at the moment -- and you have to love the totally authentic McCain, although at his age he simply cannot be credible). It will come down to a very close race among those four -- Huckabee, Romney, McCain and Giuliani (who is focusing on the Super Tuesday states, having skipped Iowa and gone relatively light in NH).

Hilary needs to win New Hampshire if her campaign isn't going to sink like Dean's did four years ago. But what a contrast between Bill Clinton (who positively oozes charisma, and is easily the greatest political campaigner of his generation anywhere in the world) and his forever-wooden wife. Which brings me to the question I want all those from the states neighbouring Arkansas (Jay, Bhushan, etc.) to answer: what is it with Arkansas and the charisma thing? I remember when I was in grad school (before the era of Bill Clinton, and after the latter had made a rather flat speech at Dukakis' nominating convention), Arkansas was synonymous with backwardness. Now it has produced America's best president since WWII, and has just manufactured a Republican insurgent who is following Jimmy Carter's road through Iowa toward the White House -- oozing charisma all the way.

[gbelday]

PKB, why do you think Guiliani is an "utter fraud"?  I kind of like him for what he did with NY economy and crime.  I don't expect him to win though but he definitely does more than just talk!

[puneets]

PKB, why do you think Guiliani is an "utter fraud"?  I kind of like him for what he did with NY economy and crime.  I don't expect him to win though but he definitely does more than just talk!

Guiliani has one point agenda - '9-11'
He's using the scare tactics to get his votes, creating an atomosphere where people will believe that he's the only hope against terrorism.
Look at this ad by Guiliani:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=wRd1LnaUvWg

[jai_in_canada]

I am not a fan of Giuliani, but I would not go so far as to call him a fraud. He lacks charisma and is hardly statesmanlike. 
American politics is asinine and shrill, especially contributed to by the right.  So it's boring to me.  However, I admit that I do follow the races with some interest.  Obama is so charismatic, such a great orator, oozes positive energy  -I think he'd be great for the country just in terms of lifting morale.  Not sure about his policies although he is making noises about "change."

[PKBasu]

I've followed Giuliani's career since he was a US attorney, and made his "reputation" (and actually padded his future political career) by mounting a massive prosecutorial campaign against Michael Milken. He laid 98 charges against Milken, and failed to prove a single one (Milken eventually plea-bargained, acquiescing to four charges of mail fraud -- but not to a single charge of securities fraud/misdemeanour). But Giuliani ran a high-profile campaign against Milken (painting him as an embodiment of Wall Street greed) and parlayed that into the mayorship of New York.

I admit he was a good Mayor, although he benefitted from some of the work done by his predecessors. Nonetheless, he did build an excellent record on crime (aided by the peace and prosperity that Pres. Clinton delivered). But the disgraceful manner in which he is parlaying a single "issue" (actually his purported "heroism" on 9/11/01) into a presidential campaign is utterly cynical and quite absurd. Being mayor is hardly preparation enough for the presidency, and simply being a "leader" by showing up on television during the events of that tragic day don't amount to a hill of beans as far as I am concerned -- certainly not enough to justify a run for the White House (apart from a best-selling book on leadership!!). 

[prasen9]

I kind of like him for what he did with NY economy and crime.

What was his contribution with respect to that?  He has been running a campaign to the right of Atilla, the Hun, speaking of 9-11, Dick Cheney as the VP, 9-11, 9-11, 9-11, Clarence Thomas II as a Supreme Court judge, 9-11, 9-11, 9-11 and did I mention 9-11?  He even said that his loss in Iowa is nothing compared to 9-11; guess what most Americans acutally thought otherwise and had to be told so.  I, for one, would not like to pay for his several mistresses and his rendezvous with them even if they become his fourth and fifth wives with my taxes if he were to be the President.  Not to mention Bernie Kerik, his cleaning out all his mayoral records, etc.  Creep!

p.s. I posted at about the same time as PKB did and did not see his post.  Also, forgot to mention about his sweetheart deal to Motorola at the expense of firefighters wireless devices.  One can go on and on, but I am tired of having dubious characters take over the Presidency and read about scandal after scandal after scandal while there are pressing needs facing the country.

[S_K_S]

Josiah Bartlet has come alive in the form of Obama. I wonder who is his Josh? 

[PKBasu]

Hillary Clinton needs to find an uplifting message to match or counter Obama's. She is doing a thoroughly inept job at the moment. The repeated reference to "experience" (someone who is ready on Day one to be president, etc.) is a negative message attacking Obama. It never works, unless the candidate has something more to offer. (Even George W had the phoney "compassionate conservative" idea, but there is no unifying theme or phrase to describe what Hillary Clinton is offering; simple experience as First Lady and Senator is simply not enough to propel her to the White House).

[gbelday]

Being mayor is hardly preparation enough for the presidency, and simply being a "leader" by showing up on television during the events of that tragic day don't amount to a hill of beans as far as I am concerned  

Well, if a movie star can become a President without any political experience, I would take a person who has been the greatest mayor in the history of NY over other candidates (one who hides behind their spouse's achievements). Also, please don't discount his work on 9-11.  He did more than just show up on television.  He was a true leader who really cared about the city.  He was primarily responsible for companies from defecting NYC.

Prasen9, where did you get to read "scandal after scandal"? And 4th and 5th wives (and mistresses?)  C'mon, don't twist the facts to make your arguements.  Yes, this is his third marriage but no one is perfect.  I would take him over a inexperienced pot smoking Obama or the wife who forgives a husband who disgraced the Whitehouse by his numerous affairs (and one well publicised one)

I agree that he is brash and outspoken but that's a real NewYorker for you.  It has got nothing to do with his record.

[PKBasu]

Gautam, Reagan had lots of political experience before becoming President. He was a very successful Governor of California (by far the largest state in the union), having earlier cut his teeth in politics as head of the Screen Actor's Guild (i.e., he was a politician even among actors). Additionally, he ran for President in 1976 (on his record as California governor) and finished a very close second to sitting President Ford in the Republican nominating process. He was considered the annointed successor to Barry Goldwater, the icon of the right, and it was always thought that Reagan was just too conservative to be president. It is ironic that he would be considered middle of the road in today's Republican Party!

I've just read the first five chapters of Obama's first autobiography, "Dreams from My Father". It is a wonderful book, full of authenticity. His lack of phoneyness shines through on every page, as he explores his own feelings, background, ethnicity, the challenges of being black in America, the challenges of being half-white among blacks, growing up in an Indonesian kampong, having a distant Kenyan father, etc. That he is a genuinely international person is clear every few pages: for instance, as a child he picked up a book about creation myths, and talks immediately about the Hindu myth of the turtle holding the earth up (among others). When he arrives in Djakarta (which was still spelt that way in 1967, with Sukarno giving way to Suharto and the Dutch legacy not quite wiped out), the first thing his step-father points out is a statue of Hanuman, explaining who that is. And he talks about his father's tribe, the Luo, talks easily about non-alignment (referring to Lumumba and Nasser without batting an eyelid), etc.

His life story is so inspiring that I think it is going to be near-impossible for anyone to stop him, especially with his theme of going beyond the categories of red and blue (implicitly white and black) to go to work solving the problems of the nation (and the world) as a whole. Hillary, in particular, needs to find a unifying theme to her life's story -- or really build a head of steam based on nostalgia for the Clinton years of peace and prosperity (although they too need to be packaged effectively, like Reagan's "Morning in America" re-election mantra) -- but I fear she is running out of time to match Barack Obama.

[gbelday]

Thanks PKB for the lesson(s).  I've begun to read a lot lately.  I guess it is something to do with me approaching middle age:) I admit my political knowledge isn't that good (was never really interested in politics till very recently).  I never really knew a whole lot about Reagan (prior to his presidency years), I knew about the governer thing but I conveniently missed that out just to make a point! 

I still think Guiliani isn't a fraud and would make a good president!!

[jai_in_canada]

Steve Bucknor must have counted the votes in the last presidential elections.  How else could Bush-Cheney have won? 

[PKBasu]

Gautam, I probably overdid it in calling Giuliani a fraud  . I found him extremely disingenuous (and downright sly) in the way in which he built his career by targeting Michael Milken with half-truths and untruths (that often obscured the real truth of some sharp practices by Milken...).

Meanwhile, I am watching with some sadness how Hillary Clinton's campaign seems to be rapidly imploding. What happened to the great Clinton machine, with its focus on a disciplined daily message? Hillary is found whining about how this campaign "is deeply personal" for her, close to tears, etc. -- all no match whatsoever for the uplifting message that Obama is so focused on. (In a McCain-Obama debate, the latter's policy of pulling US troops out of Iraq in 16 months will sound very irresponsible, but Hillary is failing to engage on the issues...).

[BSharma]

Meanwhile, I am watching with some sadness how Hillary Clinton's campaign seems to be rapidly imploding.

I am a great admirer of Bill Clinton and voted for him twice and would vote for him if he could run for US President again, but Hillary is no Bill.  I do not know if America is ready for a woman President in 2008 and I would certainly vote for one if there is a right woman candidate; however, I get the impression from talking with some Americans and reading several news media reports that many Americans including Democrats are not ready for Hillary in 2008.  Her biggest asset is Bill and without him, she has very few positives.  Her record as a New York Senator is not sterling, her role as a First Lady was controversial, and she comes across as insincere.  Her fund-raising ability and her husband will keep her going in the primaries, but I do not see her getting the nomination unless Obama and John Edwards falter along the way.  Bill has his faults, but he has charisma and ability to get things done – personality traits that Hillary lacks. 

John Edwards was John Kerry’s running mate in the 2004 election and did not come across very presidential then and has not done much to get the nod from the democrats in his bid for the White House in 2008.  He appeared on national TV with his wife Elizabeth in 2007 to announce that her cancer had recurred and she had stage 4 breast cancer with extension into her bones and lungs – something that may not have sit well with many women voters who would have wanted him to be with her as she battles her cancer, but seven months later it does not appear to be a major issue.  I believe that he will run in second place to either Obama or Hillary and finally bow out of the campaign.  What is it about the $400 haircuts of John Edwards and Donald Trump that make them appear less trustworthy?

Obama is a surprise package of 2008.  Who would have thought that America was ready in 2008 for a black person to have a decent shot at the highest office?  Colin Powell could never get the support to run for office and he had better credentials than Obama in 2000.  Obama looks the most presidential of all the Democratic candidates, is a great orator and has the most charisma, but his inexperience will be hammered by the Republicans if he gets the Democratic nomination.  Time will tell if there will be undertones within the Christian Conservatives about the faith of his father although I do not believe that he will be publicly attacked on this issue by the Republican nominee. 

Democratic candidates should have been running far ahead of their political opponents in public opinion in 2008 given the record of Bush and Chenney, yet a Republican candidate has a good chance to win the White House.

[PKBasu]

Bhushan, from his autobiography, I infer that Barack Obama's father was a Christian but his grandfather (who I don't think he ever met) was a Muslim called Hussein. I don't think that (or the fact that his own middle name is Hussein) can be really held against Barack Obama, even by the Christian conservatives.

The interesting thing is that, with the distinct exception of McCain (whose age will be a definite disadvantage) none of the Republican candidates has much real experience of governance (and especially foreign policy) either.