Lok Sabha elections 2019

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Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by Sin Hombre » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:56 pm

This is going to be a pivotal election for the future of India with how the global landscape has evolved in the last 5 years with Trump winning the US presidency (and wouldn't surprise me if he wins again in 2020), Islamists in power in Pakistan under Imran Khan, Emperor Xi taking over China and continuing with very aggressive geopolitics including against India and the older economic powers in the EU and Japan continuing to wither.

Starting to get up to speed on this election, I hadn't realized that the "Left" had gotten decimated in WB and it was a clear race between Mamata and the BJP now. The illegal immigration from BD and the Rohingyas who want to immigrate to India are a big talking point.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by sameerph » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:12 am

Still, BJP got only 2 seats in WB last time in Modi wave. It needs to get significantly more there this time. BJP had almost swept the Northen-western belt of UP,MP,Delhi,Rajashtan,Gujarat,Maharastra last time. This time it does not look like that kind of sweep there. So, it has to make up the shortfall in WB, Orissa and North east as there does not appear to be any chance of major gains in South.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by PKBasu » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:36 pm

Yes, this time West Bengal, Odisha and perhaps Tamil Nadu and Kerala will be pivotal for the NDA. In WB, it is indeed a straight fight between Trinamool and BJP -- with Congress wiped out except in Malda, and CPI-M decimated (still getting 15% of the vote, but spread out across the state, but nowhere near a majority in any seat). Most polls give the BJP at least 8 of the 42 seats in WB, others have upto 15 going the BJP's way. The latter is the minimum required from the standpoint of getting close to a national majority. In Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal, Uttarakhand, BJP had won all the seats in 2014, and the NDA won 41 out of 48 in Maharashtra, 11 of 14 in Jharkhand, 27 of 29 in MP, 9 of 11 in Chhattisgarh (IIRC). Repeating that is impossible in 2019, and WB and Odisha will only add a maximum of 25, plus another 5-8 from the northeastern states. Tamil Nadu could be interesting, with neither Karunanidhi nor Jayalalitha around, but there appears to be anti-incumbency against the AIADMK (which is a shadow of itself without Jaya, especially as her foster son has rebelled), so the DMK-Congress alliance will gain more than half the 38 seats. In Kerala, BJP has never won a seat before but is now a serious contender in 2-3 seats.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by SaniaFan » Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:31 pm

Also it will be impossible to repeat 73 of 80 in UP. I think they may find it difficult to go above 40 there.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by sameerph » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:10 pm

True,earlier I thought it would not possible for BJP to get even 30 in UP with SP-BSP together but Congress not getting into alliance with these 2 and Priyanka Gandhi getting into field may prove to be good for BJP. It will be good if they can somehow get upto 50 in UP.

The losses in other states ( Gujarat,Maharashtra, Rajashthan, MP, Delhi,Himachal,Jharkhand) will be at least 20-30.

So, it will have to deal with loss of at least 50-60 seats in these states. It will be difficult to get to that many back in East and North East.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by Sin Hombre » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:24 am

How do the opinion polls have NDA getting to 270-280 despite all the losses in the north and the west?



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by sameerph » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:22 am

This is one of the opinion polls released this week-

NDA to Fall Short of Majority in 2019 Elections: ABP-CVoter Survey

It only gives 233 seats to pre-poll NDA. It shows only 25 seats in UP and 16 in Maharashtra which is a surprise. That is a loss of 73 seats in these 2 states alone. But, as per this the loss in rest of the states is only another 15-20 seats. It gains a lot in Orissa,West Bengal and North East.

If one goes by this opinion poll and one adds another 40 odd seats in UP and Maharashtra as is expected, NDA goes past 273. I guess that is what other opinion polls are predicting.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by PKBasu » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:51 am

The date stamped on the ABP-CVoter poll you have posted, Sameer, is 24th January. The most recent polls are all showing a much stronger performance for the NDA. ABP is also a solidly pro-Congress network.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by sameerph » Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:42 am

Ok, thanks PKB. I did not notice the date. No wonder their seat projections particularly for UP and Maharashtra for NDA looks too low. It will be a shock of NDA gets only 16 in Maharashtra ( it got 41 in last elections). The general sentiment in Maharashtra appears to be pro current government. There may be some reduction from last time's 41 but still NDA should comfortably go ahead of 30 at least.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by Sin Hombre » Mon May 06, 2019 1:36 am

Elections in WB are getting crazy with stories of gang violence and bombings especially from the TMC side.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by PKBasu » Sun May 19, 2019 4:36 pm

Exit polls suggest an emphatic victory for Modi and the NDA. Including 11-26 seats (out of 42) in West Bengal, despite all the violence and ballot-stuffing by Trinamool goons (including importing 50,000 burqas into Murshidabad and Medinipur...).



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by Sin Hombre » Sun May 19, 2019 6:11 pm

Really want TMC to lose, bunch of vitriolic goons who the media refuses to acknowledge since they are anti-BJP.

Amazing the number of anti-India hit pieces in the last weeks in the likes of NYT, WaPo etc. We really need to adopting some of China's behaviour when it comes to them.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by sameerph » Thu May 23, 2019 9:28 am

Looking like it is going to be a repeat of 2014, if anything even slightly better for BJP and NDA. Some losses in UP but making up those in Bengal and Orissa.

Pretty much sweeping West and North India (except UP) as it did in 2014 which is quite remarkable considering they lost 3 assembly elections in those states just 6 months back.



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by PKBasu » Thu May 23, 2019 8:30 pm

Yes, BJP is dominant across north, western and central India (as it was in 2014, including winning ALL seats in Gujarat and Rajasthan), but is now dominant in eastern India as well (all seats in Arunachal, Tripura, Manipur, dominant in Assam, close second in Bengal and Odisha). And in the south, it has taken huge strides in Karnataka and Telangana. Unnecessarily conceded Andhra to YSRCP.

Congress has 50 seats, having lost family fiefdom Amethi to Smriti Irani. Basically Congress is down to Kerala (where it is propped up by Jinnah's legatee party, IUML) and Tamil Nadu (where it is propped up by Periyar's legatee party -- both Jinnah and Periyar were separatists!) and the Patiala maharaja's support base in Punjab (Patiala was one of the key supporters of the British in 1857-58).



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Re: Lok Sabha elections 2019

Post by jayakris » Thu May 23, 2019 9:48 pm

PKBasu wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:30 pm
Basically Congress is down to Kerala (where it is propped up by Jinnah's legatee party, IUML) and Tamil Nadu (where it is propped up by Periyar's legatee party -- both Jinnah and Periyar were separatists!) and the Patiala maharaja's support base in Punjab (Patiala was one of the key supporters of the British in 1857-58).
Well, Kerala went to Congress basically because the communists went after the God that owns God's own country (Ayyappa of Sabarimala). It made all the Kerala Hindus get pretty angry, and made all the Christians and Muslims (and a good fraction of Hindus) who feared a rise of BJP, turn around and vote enmasse for Congress, who are supposedly a mild and reasonable party in between the satan (CPM) and Yamadharma (BJP). Some sort of strange cross-voting, that fell perfectly in place for Congress. Now, BJP did increase their paltry vote share by about 50% in Kerala, but a lot of left-leaning Hindus who were done with the communists chose to vote for Congress too, as BJP is considered a terrorist party in Kerala thanks to the media that is completely controlled by the Communist and Congress parties. Anyway, yes, Congress has very few places left to hide, and Kerala is the only place where they are still tolerated.



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