New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

As we had often come back to discussing economic benefits/impact of sports I thought it was about time for an economic discussion forum.
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New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by Sin Hombre » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:30 pm

In India at the moment, and all the news is dominated by two stories today, the Modi government wanting to increase reservation to 60% by introducing an additional 10% for economic weaker section and the riots in Kerala because of the Sabarimala decision.

Both are obviously politically orchestrated. And additional reservation is a good way to continue destroying Indian educational institutions. Would be a good move if the end goal was to get rid of OBC/SC reservations completely.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by prasen9 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:28 pm

So much so for the myth that Modi does things without thinking about political gains or losses. He always did and always do so. He is a politician.

At some point, this reservation issue has to play against the vote-bank politics. If an overwhelming majority of Indians are shrunk to a 40% quota and keep suffering, then all some smart politician has to do is to run against the weakest part of the quota, promise to bring it down and get votes. No?

I would go for the economic quota instead of the caste-based quota.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by jayakris » Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:07 pm

prasen9 wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:28 pm
I would go for the economic quota instead of the caste-based quota.
Did you miss that what Modi proposed is an economic quota in the 10%? Will the rest of the groups that make up the 50% now, agree to the same income criterion within their quotas?

It is about the groups in the 50% that you should complain when the unreserved portion shrunk to 40%, not about the extra 10% that is coming in. This 10% is perfectly legitimate as economic reservation. The remaining 50% isn't [but correct me if I am wrong on my understanding that there is no economic considerations within the current reserved quotas].

This may actually be one of the most justifiable laws ever brought in India. I think possible predispositions made you see it the wrong way. Right? :)

If this law passes, I am expecting a supreme court case at some point on inequity, asking to remove this economic criterion within the 10%. That will of course fail, but it will put in place the validity of an economic criterion. Then it will lead to another case for forcing the same criterion on the 50% other quota-communities. And that will finally remove caste-based quotas! The point is that the caste-based reservation will never go, if we expect the politicians to pass a law on that. Adding another law and then making the Supreme Court do the rest, is the only way our parliament can give bitter-pills to people. This is great!



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by prasen9 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:34 pm

I agree that an economic quota is a good idea. But, this is just political posturing. I do not think that it will pass anyway. So, this is vote-bank politics. I don't think that it will go to Supreme Court, etc.

But, is this a good idea? Yes and no. Only 8% of the higher caste is possibly "poor". I do not know how they will define poverty. I got the 8% number from here: Article. But, they will be having 20% (10% of 50%) of the quota for upper castes. So, I do not believe that 10% is a good number to reserve. If it was more like 5%, I would perhaps be fine with that.

The net effect of this would be that merit-based applicants who do not fall in any quota will be restricted to 40% of the class.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by jayakris » Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:15 pm

prasen9 wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:34 pm
I agree that an economic quota is a good idea. But, this is just political posturing. I do not think that it will pass anyway. So, this is vote-bank politics. I don't think that it will go to Supreme Court, etc.
It is of course vote-bank politics, but it is one that is helpful for the country. The fact that only 8% of higher castes is poor (if the numbers you found are right; though they look doubtful) while 20% of them get reservation is one big reason why it will go to court later. It may take a while, but it won't pass. The court may direct that the criterion be adjusted but will establish an income-based criterion. Then we will see the next lawsuits that ask for such criterion to be there within the other 50% who currently get reservation. The fact is that there are many within those communities who would like reservation for more of the poorer people within them too. Suddenly everybody will have income-based criteria. But they may all be different for different castes. Slowly and steadily the reservation system will go more towards income-based criteria. These are all possibilities.

I should move these posts to another thread.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by prasen9 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:24 pm

Yes, please. Thanks. As long as it is done in the right way, I am fine. Also, I do not have faith that this bill will pass or it will even go to the court. If Article 14 on Equal Protection could be used, then a conservative interpretation would make all quotas invalid. So, I do not know if what you are saying will actually happen. See Equality. It seems to say that what the law requires is equality among equals, etc. Using this interpretation, the state can argue that affirmative action is fine and there is no equality harm there. At least that has been the thinking so far and that is why the quotas are still there. I do not see how this is going to bring things down. If you can create different classes based on race/caste/religion, you can do so using economics. I think the Supreme Court will actually uphold and keep the 10% economic quota.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by SaniaFan » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:11 am

How is upper caste defined? Are upper caste only in Hindus or they are in other religions also?



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by prasen9 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:27 am

It seems this article says that 1/3rd of the non-reserved castes are economically poor. Will have to spend more time digging into what is "poor" what is "upper caste" etc.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by jayakris » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:08 am

I definitely felt that much more than 8% of the "upper castes" were poor. Somewhere between 1/3rd and 8%, I suppose. So 20% of them coming under reservation, is probably a reasonable number too.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by jayakris » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:02 pm

And, just like that, the 10% reservation bill is passed by the Loksabha.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by jayakris » Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:39 pm

And Rajyasabha passed it late this evening too. So it has passed. Legal challenges will come, but I think it will stand in the end.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by prasen9 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:50 am

But Business India says that the numbers have been set so that nearly 100% of the population is eligible for the quota. lol. :D Political masterstroke! :D I don't know whose numbers to believe.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by RohitG » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:36 am

The question is not on whose numbers to believe imo. Top 1% of Indian households earning 20 lpa is a known thing so that 8 lpa criterion pretty much means that this 10% reservation IS roughly a general category reservation
Richest earn and spend

This criterion has been derived from the creamy layer criterion which has the same 8 lpa ceiling for OBC reservations. So I feel it's unjust to use per capita income or BPL income levels to say that 8 lpa is too much for a ceiling.

The question is whether this decision was necessary knowing how our political discourse is. It has the potential to open a pandora's box. From a short-term political standpoint, yes, BJP has managed to outflank the opposition (even then, there's a debate whether this will translate to votes) However, every key decision shouldn't be viewed from a party vs party perspective. After this decision, many groups have been demanding reservation based on proportion of population
Few examples on recent news articles:
SP: OBCs should get 54 quota
Demand caste census
New demands: 54% for OBCs to 90% for all

It's only a matter of time for this to flare up if every group rioting on streets forces every subsequent govts to bring in new layers of quotas. I fear then a new "masterstroke" will come when governments force quotas in private sector through carrot and sticks policies.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by Sin Hombre » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:33 pm

There are a few other criteria as well, so this 10% reservation will probably end up applying to 90% of the population.



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Re: New bill for more Reservations, but on Economic criteria

Post by Sin Hombre » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:34 pm

Lot of talk about 50% reservation in private sector which will be the end of India.



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