Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

As we had often come back to discussing economic benefits/impact of sports I thought it was about time for an economic discussion forum.
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prasen9
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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by prasen9 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:09 pm

So, the Modi legacy now includes the worst unemployment rate in 45 years. I cannot say that I foresaw this to this extent, but, of course, you can only run so far with PR only and stunts like demonetization. The human development index and the growth rates have hardly been much different than the much maligned UPA years here. Of course, erudite people will try to explain away things with some mumbo jumbo but the bottom-line remains the same. We have the same corrupt regimes doing small things but fundamentally there is little change. Sad :-(



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by PKBasu » Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:14 pm

The "highest unemployment rate in 45 years" is utter nonsense. India does not have an unemployment time series. Periodic surveys are done once in 5 years, but the definition of unemployment is unclear -- and is based on a questionnaire. (In the US, anyone working 20+ hours a week is considered employed, in Thailand anyone working more than 1 hour a week is considered employed; in India a question is asked "are you employed?").

Last year, India introduced a new Periodic Labour Force Survey for the FIRST time (so there is no back-data for this series). The unemployment rate as measured by this first-time survey was quite high (6.1%), but it cannot be compared to any previous years (and even this is based on a survey question, not measuring the number of hours worked in a week). It really is meaningless to compare this to the past or come up with any conclusion about how good or bad this number is. But India's "liberals" (the paid agents of the Congress) are expert at demagoguery, and the "45 year high unemployment rate" has somehow become an accepted fact in India!! Most of the journalists who work on the economics beat in India are economically illiterate: I know many of them, all usually English honours graduates. Andy Mukherjee, the Bloomberg columnist who writes a lot about the economy and finance, did an English honours degree from one of Delhi's worst colleges, Daulat Ram; he writes well, but his knowledge of economics and finance is limited (based heavily on a few "sources" who provide him material to write).



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by Varma » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:24 pm

Back in my hometown, a friend of mine runs a small business that employs about 15 people. He is very religious about running it by the book such as paying PF and ESI for every single employee, including the sweeper and the office boy. When I was there a couple of months ago, he had to hire 4 people. After interviewing several candidates for these positions, he found 4 exceptionally good people. All of them are pretty young. 2 out of these 4 people have a second job too where they work in the evening at a local cable network studio. The only caveat was that none of them wanted to be enrolled into his PF plan. They wanted to be paid cash. The reason - all of them draw a couple of thousand rupees in the "Unemployed youth" category introduced by Chandrababu Naidu's government. The newly elected YS Jagan government promised to increase this by an additional thousand rupees. If you do the math the PF they earn will be much lesser than this Rs.3,000 freebie! With most of the private sector employing people this way, how do you track the real unemployment rate?

- Varma



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by SaniaFan » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:28 am

Is it really Daulat ram college? Daulat ram is women's college.



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by prasen9 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:10 am

As predicted, the bhakts will always find some spin. The fact remains that five years ago the rate was three times lower than what it is now. Quite an achievement for Modi. More PR will of course follow to try to spin everything and keep hoodwinking the country. The growth rate and the Human Development Index tell an unmistakable story. This government is good at PR only but about the same as all the other failures before it. You cannot bullshit your way to changing the economy even though you can hoodwink a country in an election or two with demagoguery.



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by Atithee » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:21 am

It seems like there is only one person they can’t hoodwink.



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by prasen9 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:47 am

Nope. There are tons. In India and abroad. Even if you manage to hoodwink everyone, the numbers will speak for themselves. Unless, of course, you get to cook it. Or as in the employment numbers case, do a Gandhi and try to suppress/delay its release as this government tried to do. Like I said, you can BS as much as you want but BS-ing does not change the Human Development Index. Can't hoodwink that. (I am not wedded to this number per se but any other objective measure of the human condition.)



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by prasen9 » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:07 pm

I have always maintained this guy is excellent at PR. And, being an engineer, I liked this: Modi math Did anyone in the audience ask him what happens if either a or b is a negative number? :p I would have. Of course, in this context a and b are possibly, arguably positive, but why not mess with politicians a bit and see how much they understand :-)



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by jayakris » Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:20 am

He is good. I don't even know Hindi, and even I understood it. Shabbaaash, Modiji!

For prasen, he is working in the positive quadrant. He is always positive (and sometimes too optimistic for our country's good). He also knows that the audience would rather think positively, unlike the leftists who look to the left side of the y axis. You need to get out more, prasen.... from the left and the down side of the real spectrum

PS: But the economy better start heating up at some point, and that needs to be in the +7 space; not plus +5



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Re: Preparing for Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Post by prasen9 » Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:24 am

BTW, I would like nothing more than Modi's government delivering a 7%, 8% growth, removal of useless subsidies, cleaning up whatever can be cleaned up, etc. So I am rooting for Modi's success. Because that is good for the country. If you were to ask me to bet on what he will be able to achieve, I have deep doubts based on his past showing, which has ranged from slightly above average to downright diabolical. And, yes, I am rooting for the negative stuff to happen again. I would be the last person wanting another Godhra to be orchestrated, its actors rewarded, etc. So the difference is between what you expect and what I expect.

Above all, I hope for the betterment of the human condition (and not just the economy). The results have been indistinguishable with respect to this bunch and the previous set of politicians. I do not expect much from any living politician (that I know of). Perhaps a new generation will emerge that are competent and not corrupt.

By last check, we are at #130 wrt the human development index. Exactly at the same place where Modi started. An average grade. Neither too great. Nor too disastrous. But, too little for me. You guys can think that this is great but for me it is nothing really to crow about. The numbers show that he has kept pace with similar countries. That's about it.
jayakris wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:20 am
You need to get out more, prasen.... from the left and the down side of the real spectrum
I guess I am pessimistic by nature but after decade after decade and politician after politician, I have heard all this BS when they campaign and then none of them deliver. I have pretty much given up.

Hey, I am running for office and I am trying to run a (mostly) positive campaign.



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