Ankita Raina thread
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- suresh
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Ran a simulation with 1 million draws (around 2-3 times) taking into account that there were two Chinese seeds. I find that the mean number of pairs is 1.48 (mode=1) and the chances of 5 Chinese pairs is around 70-80 per million. So it is a rare event. Didn't get a single simulation where 6/7/8 pairs occurred. For 4 Chinese seeds, I find that the mean goes down to 1.44 but results are similar.Sin Hombre wrote: ↑Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:49 am The actual numbers are slightly lower because of seedings and only 2 of the Chinese being seeded.
For any of the non-seeded Chinese, the likelihood of drawing a Chinese player is 1/3 * 2/8 + 2/3 * 13/23 = 0.0833 + 0.3768 = 0.46; and for the 2 seeds, the likelihood of drawing a Chinese player is 14/24 = 0.58333.
So total expected value is (1.1667 + 0.46*14)/2 = 3.8
- suresh
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Ankita loses the 3rd set 2-6. She has her doubles match scheduled later in the day.
- jayakris
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- suresh
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Yes, especially as this has happened for two weeks in a row.
- PKBasu
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
[R2] Ankita Raina (IND, 195) l. Naomi Broady (GBR, 134) 63 06 26
The second set bagle suggests Ankita has trouble sustaining a lead, or perhaps had stamina issues today. Naomi is a tall player, and probably has a big serve (she is ranked in the top-70 in doubles, and won a WTA doubles title recently).
The second set bagle suggests Ankita has trouble sustaining a lead, or perhaps had stamina issues today. Naomi is a tall player, and probably has a big serve (she is ranked in the top-70 in doubles, and won a WTA doubles title recently).
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
I find that mean to be low and would double check the code.suresh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:10 amRan a simulation with 1 million draws (around 2-3 times) taking into account that there were two Chinese seeds. I find that the mean number of pairs is 1.48 (mode=1) and the chances of 5 Chinese pairs is around 70-80 per million. So it is a rare event. Didn't get a single simulation where 6/7/8 pairs occurred. For 4 Chinese seeds, I find that the mean goes down to 1.44 but results are similar.Sin Hombre wrote: ↑Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:49 am The actual numbers are slightly lower because of seedings and only 2 of the Chinese being seeded.
For any of the non-seeded Chinese, the likelihood of drawing a Chinese player is 1/3 * 2/8 + 2/3 * 13/23 = 0.0833 + 0.3768 = 0.46; and for the 2 seeds, the likelihood of drawing a Chinese player is 14/24 = 0.58333.
So total expected value is (1.1667 + 0.46*14)/2 = 3.8
Just the average of 2 Chinese non-seeds drawing each other should be higher than that.
- suresh
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Yes, will do that!! My low mean surprised me as well but I did not verify your calculation either.Sin Hombre wrote: ↑Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:59 pm
I find that mean to be low and would double check the code.
Just the average of 2 Chinese non-seeds drawing each other should be higher than that.
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
I found the mistake in my code. For some unknown reason my simulation was for 10 Chinese out of 32 and not 16! Now the mean is 3.8 and the probability of 5 pairs is 0.198 and so it is not an extreme event. Apologies for the mess up.Sin Hombre wrote: ↑Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:59 pm
I find that mean to be low and would double check the code.
Just the average of 2 Chinese non-seeds drawing each other should be higher than that.
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Ankita will be playing the Anning WTA125 next week. IIRC this will be the first time she has secured a direct entry to an WTA125 main draw without needing a wildcard. Let’s hope she draws motivation from our Indian players this week to continue next week
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Great, thanks for fixing.suresh wrote: ↑Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:27 amI found the mistake in my code. For some unknown reason my simulation was for 10 Chinese out of 32 and not 16! Now the mean is 3.8 and the probability of 5 pairs is 0.198 and so it is not an extreme event. Apologies for the mess up.Sin Hombre wrote: ↑Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:59 pm
I find that mean to be low and would double check the code.
Just the average of 2 Chinese non-seeds drawing each other should be higher than that.
Also good to know that I can still do basic probability
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Ankita is finally included in TOPS scheme -
Ankita Raina included in TOPS
Some justice prevails at last.
Ankita Raina included in TOPS
Some justice prevails at last.
- PKBasu
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Re: Ankita Raina thread
Justice at last, indeed! The India #1 woman has earned this the hard way. Well done, Ankita!!