Davis Cup 2018 - India

This is a forum where users can follow various tournaments that have Indian participation or are held in India. GrandSlams and Davis Cup should also be discussed here.

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Prashant
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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by Prashant » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:08 pm

Ok, I better understand what you are saying now, and I have no problems with any of the win probabilities you are assuming.

The place where I disagree is I do think we need to heavily emphasize having two healthy singles players for day 3. We are rarely going to be 2-0 up after day 1, so even though I don't advocate giving up on doubles or anything like that, even doubles win *probably* gets us to 2-1. And then, if anything happens to Yuki and his glass limbs, we have ZERO probability of winning the tie on day 3. That's all. If our two best singles players were both average or better in fitness and durability, then we would be in agreement. But that is not the case.

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by Atithee » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:34 pm

It's interesting to me the Jay-Prashant (Samarth and I) are, I think, saying the same thing, but stating their view in converse terms. In essence, everyone is saying that having a specialist doubles team ALL the time doesn't make sense. Right?

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by Prashant » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:50 pm

Atithee wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:34 pm
everyone is saying that having a specialist doubles team ALL the time doesn't make sense.
I am saying that as long as Yuki or Saketh occupies one of the singles slots, it never makes sense because they carry a much higher injury/fitness risk than the average player.

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by jayakris » Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:35 pm

Prashant wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:08 pm
The place where I disagree is I do think we need to heavily emphasize having two healthy singles players for day 3. We are rarely going to be 2-0 up after day 1, so even though I don't advocate giving up on doubles or anything like that, even doubles win *probably* gets us to 2-1. And then, if anything happens to Yuki and his glass limbs, we have ZERO probability of winning the tie on day 3. That's all. If our two best singles players were both average or better in fitness and durability, then we would be in agreement. But that is not the case.
Yes, nothing wrong with that. The top two singles players get selected regardless of what happens in doubles. That is Yuki and RamK for now. Keeping a third player and hoping for him to win on the third day (with a probability 10% for our usual third player, normally a 200-300 quality player) against a top-100 or at least top-150 player that any WG playoff team will have), is a worse strategy than adding 25% extra chance to win the doubles match. Against most regional teams, a doubles pair will do the job. But against a WG playoff team, you better get that third singles player to take doubles seriously and be ready to win it on the second day. Without that, we will get nowhere, and won't sniff a WG barring a home tie against a really depleted team that falls sick in India from bad food.

I would even come up with an arrangement for the players in the doubles team to be get paid the gap from their average earnings for the matches they play together on the tour (at whatever level) in the 3 or 4 weeks leading to the DC. They need to be our top-5 players in singles or doubles to get this payment. That is, if Bops is making $4K per match on the pro circuit, and say plays two challengers with say Saketh or Sumit next year just before Davis Cup for 5 matches total making only $4K, he gets the income short-fall of $16K for having done that. Or it can be based on per-event average earnings or some more complicated fair formula. Some incentive must be there for the players to play together before Davis Cup, because the fact is that the players do lose money if they have to do things for the country, and they must be compensated. Anyway, somehow we need to get our singles players (anybody in our top-5, for instance) and top doubles specialists to play together a bit. It just won't happen otherwise, and we simply lose that 30% extra chance to win the doubles match in DC. Of course, you need to get picked by the captain to get that incentive money, so he needs to be on board with the strategy. But he will have the team to select for Davis Cup, and a higher chance to win the doubles, while still keeping a third singles player available for the 3rd day. The regular doubles teams may not get much incentive, but they might chose to play some lesser events and get more matches together to get sharper - and the captain may not pick them anyway :)

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by sameerph » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:19 pm

Overall I agree with Prashant's post about picking 3 singles players. However, we should be mindful that the third singles player has at least played doubles quite regularly on challenger tour.

It is ok if Saketh gets fully fit by then. But, if he is not things become tricky. Our 2 next best singles players, Prajnesh and Sumit do not play doubles at all on challenger/futures tour. So, I don't think we can trust them to win a doubles davis cup tie along with 1 doubles specialist even if they play 2-3 tournaments on tour beforehand .

Then, we have to go down to Balaji or Vishnu. They are good in doubles but have not shown too much ability to even beat top 250 level singles players on tour. So, it would be waste to have them as third singles player.
Therefore, the key to this strategy is for Saketh to get fit and in form.

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by PKBasu » Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:24 pm

A late response on the suggestion (from Atithee, I think) that Bopanna should play singles: this is a complete non-starter. Bopanna's famous match against Verkerk (then a recent FO finalist) was in 2003 -- and of course he lost that. Bopanna has a singles record of 10 wins-17 losses -- and he hasn't played singles for at least five years. There is nothing to suggest that he can play singles competitively, especially since he never really showed any ability to actually WIN big Davis Cup matches (rather than heroically lose them!). The Verkerk loss wasn't entirely his fault (the final point was a dodgy line call), but he really didn't have any really significant singles wins (the best probably being over Brazil's Ricardo Mello, followed by one over Rik De Voest). Nothing even to compare with Bhupathi's win over Siemerink. (Of course, if we played on home on grass, there might be a slight argument for sending RB in to play singles if Yuki or RamK was injured; otherwise not even on grass now).

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by prasen9 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:56 pm

All that doesn't matter. Someone who has not played singles will not be match fit. Bopanna will have trouble breaking the top-300 if he starts playing singles again. He won't do that anyway. So, that question does not arise at all.

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by arjun2761 » Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:21 pm

Agree that the suggestion of Rohan (who couldn't crack the top 200 at his prime) should play 5 set matches at this age and stage of his career is borderline moronic.

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by Atithee » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:26 pm

Ok, I admit that I'm a borderline moron. Happy?

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by Sin Hombre » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:34 am

I agree with jay.

As things stand, our best team assuming full fitness is Yuki, RamK, Rohan and Saketh.

For the Canada tie, our best bet would have been Yuki, RamK, Rohan and Sumit; as said earlier, I would have had Yuki play doubles and the singles on the last day. Rather than a 4 hour match on the first day against their best singles player.

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by prasen9 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:26 am

Atithee wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:26 pm
Ok, I admit that I'm a borderline moron. Happy?
Having a bad day, bud? Chill :D

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by Varma » Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:35 am

In an ideal world, this forum is how the selection committee meetings should be. Different selectors taking different sides, arguing their case passionately and bring logic and reasoning to the table before finalizing the squad. Just scroll back a few pages to see where we started, but now we are all close to agreeing on the final list. @Atithee...don't take things personally. You are a core member of the committee, so we can't afford to let you walkout right before we pick the final four and release the list to press. Then we can all be buddies again :devil:

- Varma

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by S_K_S » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:46 pm

arjun2761 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:21 pm
Agree that the suggestion of Rohan (who couldn't crack the top 200 at his prime) should play 5 set matches at this age and stage of his career is borderline moronic.
Come on guys, let's disagree if we have to but avoid the insults

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by S_K_S » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:50 pm

prasen9 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:35 pm
S_K_S wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:09 pm
Why are you guys so convinced that Divij/Purav are the answer? To win a world group playoff Davis Cup, pairs need to be winning ATP tournaments. As a pair their ATP tournament win record is very poor.
I was commenting only for the China match. For a world group playoff, depending upon the opponent, of course, there may be times when choosing Rohan-Saketh may be the answer (as Jay pointed out above).
We need to avoid the short term-ism. The team we have to pick has to have a 2 match plan. No point in picking a team to beat China and then scratching our heads as to what to do next(injuries permitting).

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Re: Davis Cup 2017 - India

Post by Omkara » Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:11 pm

prasen9 wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:26 am
Atithee wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:26 pm
Ok, I admit that I'm a borderline moron. Happy?
Having a bad day, bud? Chill :D

I see no wrong in the description. Apt.

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